Long-time readers know I normally post my "contrarian predictions" in the run-up to each season. This year I ran eight of them in PFN's Fantasy Draft Kit. Want to share a brief summary of each, including one that already seems completely off--but which could still pan out.
QB Fantasy Bargain: Jared Goff -- Goff has burned me before, and he's probably burned some of you. This season seems different. His receiving corps is much better than last year's (just look at who his starters were for most of last season). Most of his key receivers in 2021 missed 4+ games, including the catch-friendly D'Andre Swift. The Lions are a team on the rise, and Goff is playing for a starting job in 2023 (the team has a contractual "out" after this season). I've believed all summer that his ADP (currently QB27) is way too low.
QB Fantasy Bust: Lamar Jackson -- Yeah, I don't like to play contrarian predictions too safe. Jackson has been a top-4 fantasy QB all summer, both in ADP and according to experts. I see it differently, with a weakened receiving corps and an improved backfield leading to a far more run-heavy offense. This belief pre-dated the more recent buzz that the Ravens would become more run-heavy. My assessment was based largely on the team's decision not to upgrade at WR in the draft, focusing instead almost entirely on their defense and o-line (plus two TEs, including one increasingly notable TE). Jackson was good last year, though not exceptional compared to other top-8 QBs. I don't see him improving on that this year.
RB Fantasy Bargain: Isaiah Spiller -- This probably won't work out. My Draft Kit article published in June, and by early August it was clear that Spiller faced an uphill battle to meet my expectations. An ankle injury didn't help. Neither did the signing of Sony Michel. But one thing to keep in mind: if the team were satisfied with Joshua Kelley, they probably wouldn't have signed Michel. And Michel couldn't even make it as a top-3 RB in Miami. Spiller might still have the highest non-Ekeler ceiling on the team. Let's see what he does when he's healthy.
RB Fantasy Bust: Damien Harris -- When subscribers first started reading my write-up about two months ago, Harris was still viewed as the Patriots' #1 RB. His positional ADP was 24. Rhamondre Stevenson was about 14-18 spots behind. I walked through why Harris won't be a top-36 RB, including advanced metrics and the context of a backfield that likely would shift more toward Stevenson. My rule for contrarian predictions is that nearly every fantasy expert needs to disagree. In this case, 97 of 102 disagreed with my Harris assessment (based on Fantasy Pros' compilation of expert rankings). If you subscribe to my rankings, you know that I've ranked Stevenson ahead of Harris for a long time. Today, Harris's RB ADP is down to 34, while Stevenson is up to 36. So while this prediction no longer seems bold or contrarian, it was for most of the summer.
WR Fantasy Bargain: Rashod Bateman -- How can I view Bateman as a bargain and Jackson as a fade? Because Bateman was sharply undervalued at the start of the summer. It made no sense. Historically, teams' #1 WRs generally finish in the top 30. A majority of the time they finish in the top 20. The gap between Bateman and the Ravens' #2 WR is significant. It's quite possible he and Mark Andrews will collectively net about 275 targets. Bateman is a good bet for roughly 45%-50% of them. He's still my WR21, still comfortably ahead of ADP and expert expectations.
WR Fantasy Bust: Davante Adams -- Not an easy call, and I made it when I thought Darren Waller would return to semi-glory. That seems less likely these days (from where I'm sitting). That said, about 80%-85% of experts have ranked him in the top 5 all summer, and his WR4 ADP has held steady. I've viewed Hunter Renfrow as a much better value play, and a bolstered backfield (I'm looking at you, Zamir White) should make this a more multi-dimensional offense than Adams's ranking suggests. I originally predicted he wouldn't finish in the top 10. Maybe I'd change it to top 8 if I could. But I won't. It is what it is, and I'm still fading Adams in drafts based on my research--including some pretty compelling red-zone data.
TE Fantasy Bargain: Hayden Hurst -- You've heard me blather on about Hurst for months. "Hurst this, Hurst that," etc. It's all I can do not to write every column about Hurst. His TE ADP is 23--the same as when I pushed him as a contrarian bargain more than two months ago. At the time, 98% of experts ranked him outside the top 18, while 83% placed him outside the top 24. That really struck me. Was I completely off in my thinking? Or are most people misunderstanding what he brings to the Bengals' offense? We'll find out soon. For now, he remains my favorite TE bargain--a former first-round draft pick who was the TE10 only two years ago, and who's now playing in an offense that should score in buckets.
TE Fantasy Bust: Travis Kelce -- Finally, Kelce. Good ol' Kelce. The irony? Back in 2014, I wrote on this page (September 4th) that Kelce was my preseason TE10, back when his TE ADP was 16. I've been on the Kelce bandwagon since the start of his incredible run. And I'm not quite jumping off. But earlier this summer in the Draft Kit, I walked through the many reasons why he was headed toward a meaningful regression. Whether that makes him the TE4 or TE5 or worse, who knows. But I'm fading him in drafts for many reasons. Because he's been an incredible player for so many years, I hope I'm wrong.
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QB Fantasy Bargain: Jared Goff -- Goff has burned me before, and he's probably burned some of you. This season seems different. His receiving corps is much better than last year's (just look at who his starters were for most of last season). Most of his key receivers in 2021 missed 4+ games, including the catch-friendly D'Andre Swift. The Lions are a team on the rise, and Goff is playing for a starting job in 2023 (the team has a contractual "out" after this season). I've believed all summer that his ADP (currently QB27) is way too low.
QB Fantasy Bust: Lamar Jackson -- Yeah, I don't like to play contrarian predictions too safe. Jackson has been a top-4 fantasy QB all summer, both in ADP and according to experts. I see it differently, with a weakened receiving corps and an improved backfield leading to a far more run-heavy offense. This belief pre-dated the more recent buzz that the Ravens would become more run-heavy. My assessment was based largely on the team's decision not to upgrade at WR in the draft, focusing instead almost entirely on their defense and o-line (plus two TEs, including one increasingly notable TE). Jackson was good last year, though not exceptional compared to other top-8 QBs. I don't see him improving on that this year.
RB Fantasy Bargain: Isaiah Spiller -- This probably won't work out. My Draft Kit article published in June, and by early August it was clear that Spiller faced an uphill battle to meet my expectations. An ankle injury didn't help. Neither did the signing of Sony Michel. But one thing to keep in mind: if the team were satisfied with Joshua Kelley, they probably wouldn't have signed Michel. And Michel couldn't even make it as a top-3 RB in Miami. Spiller might still have the highest non-Ekeler ceiling on the team. Let's see what he does when he's healthy.
RB Fantasy Bust: Damien Harris -- When subscribers first started reading my write-up about two months ago, Harris was still viewed as the Patriots' #1 RB. His positional ADP was 24. Rhamondre Stevenson was about 14-18 spots behind. I walked through why Harris won't be a top-36 RB, including advanced metrics and the context of a backfield that likely would shift more toward Stevenson. My rule for contrarian predictions is that nearly every fantasy expert needs to disagree. In this case, 97 of 102 disagreed with my Harris assessment (based on Fantasy Pros' compilation of expert rankings). If you subscribe to my rankings, you know that I've ranked Stevenson ahead of Harris for a long time. Today, Harris's RB ADP is down to 34, while Stevenson is up to 36. So while this prediction no longer seems bold or contrarian, it was for most of the summer.
WR Fantasy Bargain: Rashod Bateman -- How can I view Bateman as a bargain and Jackson as a fade? Because Bateman was sharply undervalued at the start of the summer. It made no sense. Historically, teams' #1 WRs generally finish in the top 30. A majority of the time they finish in the top 20. The gap between Bateman and the Ravens' #2 WR is significant. It's quite possible he and Mark Andrews will collectively net about 275 targets. Bateman is a good bet for roughly 45%-50% of them. He's still my WR21, still comfortably ahead of ADP and expert expectations.
WR Fantasy Bust: Davante Adams -- Not an easy call, and I made it when I thought Darren Waller would return to semi-glory. That seems less likely these days (from where I'm sitting). That said, about 80%-85% of experts have ranked him in the top 5 all summer, and his WR4 ADP has held steady. I've viewed Hunter Renfrow as a much better value play, and a bolstered backfield (I'm looking at you, Zamir White) should make this a more multi-dimensional offense than Adams's ranking suggests. I originally predicted he wouldn't finish in the top 10. Maybe I'd change it to top 8 if I could. But I won't. It is what it is, and I'm still fading Adams in drafts based on my research--including some pretty compelling red-zone data.
TE Fantasy Bargain: Hayden Hurst -- You've heard me blather on about Hurst for months. "Hurst this, Hurst that," etc. It's all I can do not to write every column about Hurst. His TE ADP is 23--the same as when I pushed him as a contrarian bargain more than two months ago. At the time, 98% of experts ranked him outside the top 18, while 83% placed him outside the top 24. That really struck me. Was I completely off in my thinking? Or are most people misunderstanding what he brings to the Bengals' offense? We'll find out soon. For now, he remains my favorite TE bargain--a former first-round draft pick who was the TE10 only two years ago, and who's now playing in an offense that should score in buckets.
TE Fantasy Bust: Travis Kelce -- Finally, Kelce. Good ol' Kelce. The irony? Back in 2014, I wrote on this page (September 4th) that Kelce was my preseason TE10, back when his TE ADP was 16. I've been on the Kelce bandwagon since the start of his incredible run. And I'm not quite jumping off. But earlier this summer in the Draft Kit, I walked through the many reasons why he was headed toward a meaningful regression. Whether that makes him the TE4 or TE5 or worse, who knows. But I'm fading him in drafts for many reasons. Because he's been an incredible player for so many years, I hope I'm wrong.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or Rankings + 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"): https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/
Compete in the free, play-for-pride "PFN Bingo" fantasy competition: https://bit.ly/3Q9hMxL