For years, I've struggled with how to assess targets with relatively high ceilings and low floors. Last summer I gave them a name: "chaos players." They're worth drafting at the right spot, and they also carry unique risk. Some have realistic ranges between elite and benchable; others have ranges from barely startable to completely droppable. Their variance sometimes hinges on durability concerns, or on where they might fit in on the depth chart, or other factors that make sense when we encounter them.
For the PFN Fantasy Draft Kit's June launch, I broke down eight chaos players ahead of the 2022 season. If you're a subscriber, you've probably seen these. For everyone else, here's a quick summary. And on a side note, it's interesting how many of them remain chaos players, even after more than two months.
Justin Fields -- Breakout and bust potential, rolled into a second-year QB with few reliable playmakers and a defense that should force him to play aggressively deep into games. Would we be surprised if he finished the year as the QB14? Would we be any more surprised if he was the QB24? That's what a chaos player is.
Tua Tagovailoa -- At the time, his QB ADP was 17. Now it's 16. I wrote a few weeks ago that it wouldn't be shocking if he cracked the top 12, and that I was trying to figure out if he could leapfrog more QBs in my rankings. But I never could figure that out. He remains my QB14, even though he could be a huge breakout performer. Why the hesitance? Because we haven't yet seen him at his best--and we don't yet know if he can get there in Year 3.
Christian McCaffrey -- Not much needs to be said. Near-universal elite RB heading into 2022. I still don't understand it . . . except I do. While he's much further down in my rankings, I recognize that he's still one of the league's most talented backs. Can he get back to that level, or anywhere close to it? That's the question. CMC is the quintessential boom-bust first-round pick.
Javonte Williams -- This was before I went all in on Javonte. Yet he remains a chaos player in some ways because while his ceiling hovers near elite levels (if he can tack on another 40-50 touches to approach 300), he's still tethered to Melvin Gordon. Passing-game and goal-line work could be the difference. Still, I wouldn't call him a chaos player anymore; his floor is rock solid--around the top 16-18--with no notable injury or demotion risks.
Mike Williams -- Which Mike Williams will we see in 2022? The guy who was playing for a big payday last year? Or the guy who didn't break through in his first four seasons? Williams could overtake Keenan Allen this year as the Chargers' No. 1 WR. He could also fall well behind Keenan. He's a fascinating bet.
Michael Thomas -- As true now as it was 10 weeks ago, as it was 10 months ago. Michael Thomas best four seasons might end up being his first four seasons. Amazingly talented, and also at a high risk of missing multiple games again.
Logan Thomas -- His TE ADP was 18 in late June. Now it's 24. What happened? Injuries. We can see how good he could be, based on a wildly unexpected 2020 season. And we can also recognize he's a relatively old tight end who might not be an NFL starter after this season. Washington needs him, which helps keep his upside higher than his ADP. But let's face it: Thomas isn't much of a chaos player anymore. Maybe top 16-18 is a realistic ceiling. I don't think many people think of him as weekly-fantasy-starter material anymore.
Cameron Brate -- Ending this with a whimper, I know. I wrote my piece about Brate shortly after Rob Gronkowski announced his second retirement. Go check out what a lot of fantasy experts tweeted about Brate, and you'll understand why he was a natural "chaos" candidate. If the hype was justified, he could have pushed for top 11-13 numbers, especially given the injuries to Tampa Bay's wideouts and Brate's competence as a red-zone target. But with rookie Cade Otton looming (and then later with the addition of Kyle Rudolph), Brate's floor dropped off most managers' radars. Basically, he could be the TE12 as easily as he could be the TE45.
If you have any chaos players you want to toss out here, I'd like to read your take.
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Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or Rankings + 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"): https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/
Compete in the free, play-for-pride "PFN Bingo" fantasy competition: https://bit.ly/3Q9hMxL
For the PFN Fantasy Draft Kit's June launch, I broke down eight chaos players ahead of the 2022 season. If you're a subscriber, you've probably seen these. For everyone else, here's a quick summary. And on a side note, it's interesting how many of them remain chaos players, even after more than two months.
Justin Fields -- Breakout and bust potential, rolled into a second-year QB with few reliable playmakers and a defense that should force him to play aggressively deep into games. Would we be surprised if he finished the year as the QB14? Would we be any more surprised if he was the QB24? That's what a chaos player is.
Tua Tagovailoa -- At the time, his QB ADP was 17. Now it's 16. I wrote a few weeks ago that it wouldn't be shocking if he cracked the top 12, and that I was trying to figure out if he could leapfrog more QBs in my rankings. But I never could figure that out. He remains my QB14, even though he could be a huge breakout performer. Why the hesitance? Because we haven't yet seen him at his best--and we don't yet know if he can get there in Year 3.
Christian McCaffrey -- Not much needs to be said. Near-universal elite RB heading into 2022. I still don't understand it . . . except I do. While he's much further down in my rankings, I recognize that he's still one of the league's most talented backs. Can he get back to that level, or anywhere close to it? That's the question. CMC is the quintessential boom-bust first-round pick.
Javonte Williams -- This was before I went all in on Javonte. Yet he remains a chaos player in some ways because while his ceiling hovers near elite levels (if he can tack on another 40-50 touches to approach 300), he's still tethered to Melvin Gordon. Passing-game and goal-line work could be the difference. Still, I wouldn't call him a chaos player anymore; his floor is rock solid--around the top 16-18--with no notable injury or demotion risks.
Mike Williams -- Which Mike Williams will we see in 2022? The guy who was playing for a big payday last year? Or the guy who didn't break through in his first four seasons? Williams could overtake Keenan Allen this year as the Chargers' No. 1 WR. He could also fall well behind Keenan. He's a fascinating bet.
Michael Thomas -- As true now as it was 10 weeks ago, as it was 10 months ago. Michael Thomas best four seasons might end up being his first four seasons. Amazingly talented, and also at a high risk of missing multiple games again.
Logan Thomas -- His TE ADP was 18 in late June. Now it's 24. What happened? Injuries. We can see how good he could be, based on a wildly unexpected 2020 season. And we can also recognize he's a relatively old tight end who might not be an NFL starter after this season. Washington needs him, which helps keep his upside higher than his ADP. But let's face it: Thomas isn't much of a chaos player anymore. Maybe top 16-18 is a realistic ceiling. I don't think many people think of him as weekly-fantasy-starter material anymore.
Cameron Brate -- Ending this with a whimper, I know. I wrote my piece about Brate shortly after Rob Gronkowski announced his second retirement. Go check out what a lot of fantasy experts tweeted about Brate, and you'll understand why he was a natural "chaos" candidate. If the hype was justified, he could have pushed for top 11-13 numbers, especially given the injuries to Tampa Bay's wideouts and Brate's competence as a red-zone target. But with rookie Cade Otton looming (and then later with the addition of Kyle Rudolph), Brate's floor dropped off most managers' radars. Basically, he could be the TE12 as easily as he could be the TE45.
If you have any chaos players you want to toss out here, I'd like to read your take.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or Rankings + 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"): https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/
Compete in the free, play-for-pride "PFN Bingo" fantasy competition: https://bit.ly/3Q9hMxL