Well folks, this is it. Football returns tonight. We've been waiting seven months for this, or eight months for those who went deep into the fantasy playoffs. And 10+ months for those who, at 2-8 in November, realized it just wasn't their year.
But right now, we all have an equal shot. Or, according to ESPN, I have a relatively bad shot compared to my tough PFFL Division A opponents. Last night we drafted, along with three other 14-team divisions in the 168-team PFFL. And as I've been doing every year for a while, here's my annual rundown of who I drafted and why. The purpose here isn't to look smart. It's to be real. My drafts don't always go as well I want them to. Sometimes they go better than expected. I'm always trying to get better. Let's see how this one went:
Rounds 1 and 2: ESPN assigns me the 14th pick, which is great, because as shared before, I always want to pick at the corners. Half the decision making, and double the odds of landing two-person backfields (which increases the odds of landing a breakout RB if one gets hurt). 10 RBs are off the board when it gets to me. So I take the two best players in my rankings: Javonte Williams and CeeDee Lamb.
Rounds 3 and 4: 26 picks later, I'm not happy. Dameon Pierce is taken one pick before, leaving me with no assured Week 1 bellcows. With one QB drafted, and sensing a lot more will be gone by the time it comes back to me, I take Justin Herbert. Then I go off script. My plan was to take Dalton Schultz to lock up a strong-possibility top-5 TE. Or I could take a second RB like Chase Edmonds or Clyde Edwards-Helaire. But with the 30-second clock moving quickly, I jump on a short-term solution with questionable long-term production: Marquise Brown. Not thrilled about it, and it's done.
Rounds 5 and 6: Five more QBs are taken in the next 26 picks, including two of my three favorite top-12 bargains, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts. So for now, I'm happy to have taken Herbert instead of a top 16-24 WR or 16-24 RB, or even Schultz. Because George Kittle is still available at pick #70. He's questionable for Week 1 with a groin injury, and that's been scaring people away. This is the first pick I'm thrilled about. I also take Christian Kirk. Hunter Renfrow and Chris Godwin also were options. But I went with the last clear-cut #1 WR available.
Rounds 7 and 8: Melvin Gordon is going a round or two later, but I can't afford to wait, since pairing him with Javonte has been one of my primary goals since I drafted Javonte. I also take Nyheim Hines, who doesn't have the ceiling I look for when drafting RBs. Yet he's been on my radar since last year, when he was inexplicably underutilized in favor of an overworked Jonathan Taylor. I've been pushing Hines all summer, and this was the moment to walk the talk. I can now feel a little more relaxed about having a sub-par RB group, knowing that starting Javonte and Gordon together should net me about 25-30 points per game.
Rounds 9 and 10: If you've competed in a 14-team draft, you know this is the point when non-QBs really thin out. There are a lot more "Let's see if this guy pans out" picks. I go with Michael Gallup and Rachaad White, feeling fortunate that Gallup slipped through the cracks, and also feeling confident that White will get at least a couple spot starts, and could realistically push Leonard Fournette by midseason.
Rounds 11 and 12: One D/ST and one kicker are alreay off the board, which actually isn't that strange, since we're now at pick #154. So I take the Bills and Evan McPherson. Could have added another RB handcuff, but wanted to lock in elite / near-elite positional value.
Rounds 13 and 14: In rounds 5 and 6 I debated taking Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris, knowing both would be gone before it came back to me (and that's what happened). If Kittle hadn't been available, I probably would have done it. So now, nearing the end of the draft, I do a light version of what I considered doing several rounds earlier: taking two RBs in the same backfield, and hoping one comes through. I choose Arizona's Eno Benjamin and Darrel Williams because James Conner has a history of regressing and/or getting hurt after relatively heavy-workload seasons (about 225+ touches), dating back to college. It's why Conner is #45 on my draft board compared to an overall 30 ADP. So by taking his two primary backups, I'm hoping to increase my odds of striking gold (or least silver) later this year.
Rounds 15 and 16: My final two picks are short-term solution: Hayden Hurst and the Titans D/ST. Hurst is an insurance policy in a favorable matchup if Kittle has to sit (and I like Hurst anyway as an undervalued TE), while Tennessee at home against the Giants is a better Week 1 matchup than Buffalo at the Rams. I'm just trying to win Week 1.
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So my normal starting lineup will be Herbert, Javonte, Gordon, CeeDee, Marquise, Kirk, Kittle, McPherson, and the Bills, with Gallup and Hines serving as functional fill-ins. As always, I wish I'd done some things differently. And that's the point. We can't get most of what we want. But we can pick our moments, and as long as we come prepared, those moments will be fairly clear when they happen.
A final reminder that if you want to compete in the free Fantasy Bingo competition, click here: https://bit.ly/3Q9hMxL. Takes only a few minutes to set your team, and then you can forget about it until I announce in January that you've won, and your life is forever changed.
Good luck if you have players going tonight. I'll predict the Rams winning 20-16. If you want to guess the final score, comment below. Closest guess wins a shout-out.
But right now, we all have an equal shot. Or, according to ESPN, I have a relatively bad shot compared to my tough PFFL Division A opponents. Last night we drafted, along with three other 14-team divisions in the 168-team PFFL. And as I've been doing every year for a while, here's my annual rundown of who I drafted and why. The purpose here isn't to look smart. It's to be real. My drafts don't always go as well I want them to. Sometimes they go better than expected. I'm always trying to get better. Let's see how this one went:
Rounds 1 and 2: ESPN assigns me the 14th pick, which is great, because as shared before, I always want to pick at the corners. Half the decision making, and double the odds of landing two-person backfields (which increases the odds of landing a breakout RB if one gets hurt). 10 RBs are off the board when it gets to me. So I take the two best players in my rankings: Javonte Williams and CeeDee Lamb.
Rounds 3 and 4: 26 picks later, I'm not happy. Dameon Pierce is taken one pick before, leaving me with no assured Week 1 bellcows. With one QB drafted, and sensing a lot more will be gone by the time it comes back to me, I take Justin Herbert. Then I go off script. My plan was to take Dalton Schultz to lock up a strong-possibility top-5 TE. Or I could take a second RB like Chase Edmonds or Clyde Edwards-Helaire. But with the 30-second clock moving quickly, I jump on a short-term solution with questionable long-term production: Marquise Brown. Not thrilled about it, and it's done.
Rounds 5 and 6: Five more QBs are taken in the next 26 picks, including two of my three favorite top-12 bargains, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts. So for now, I'm happy to have taken Herbert instead of a top 16-24 WR or 16-24 RB, or even Schultz. Because George Kittle is still available at pick #70. He's questionable for Week 1 with a groin injury, and that's been scaring people away. This is the first pick I'm thrilled about. I also take Christian Kirk. Hunter Renfrow and Chris Godwin also were options. But I went with the last clear-cut #1 WR available.
Rounds 7 and 8: Melvin Gordon is going a round or two later, but I can't afford to wait, since pairing him with Javonte has been one of my primary goals since I drafted Javonte. I also take Nyheim Hines, who doesn't have the ceiling I look for when drafting RBs. Yet he's been on my radar since last year, when he was inexplicably underutilized in favor of an overworked Jonathan Taylor. I've been pushing Hines all summer, and this was the moment to walk the talk. I can now feel a little more relaxed about having a sub-par RB group, knowing that starting Javonte and Gordon together should net me about 25-30 points per game.
Rounds 9 and 10: If you've competed in a 14-team draft, you know this is the point when non-QBs really thin out. There are a lot more "Let's see if this guy pans out" picks. I go with Michael Gallup and Rachaad White, feeling fortunate that Gallup slipped through the cracks, and also feeling confident that White will get at least a couple spot starts, and could realistically push Leonard Fournette by midseason.
Rounds 11 and 12: One D/ST and one kicker are alreay off the board, which actually isn't that strange, since we're now at pick #154. So I take the Bills and Evan McPherson. Could have added another RB handcuff, but wanted to lock in elite / near-elite positional value.
Rounds 13 and 14: In rounds 5 and 6 I debated taking Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris, knowing both would be gone before it came back to me (and that's what happened). If Kittle hadn't been available, I probably would have done it. So now, nearing the end of the draft, I do a light version of what I considered doing several rounds earlier: taking two RBs in the same backfield, and hoping one comes through. I choose Arizona's Eno Benjamin and Darrel Williams because James Conner has a history of regressing and/or getting hurt after relatively heavy-workload seasons (about 225+ touches), dating back to college. It's why Conner is #45 on my draft board compared to an overall 30 ADP. So by taking his two primary backups, I'm hoping to increase my odds of striking gold (or least silver) later this year.
Rounds 15 and 16: My final two picks are short-term solution: Hayden Hurst and the Titans D/ST. Hurst is an insurance policy in a favorable matchup if Kittle has to sit (and I like Hurst anyway as an undervalued TE), while Tennessee at home against the Giants is a better Week 1 matchup than Buffalo at the Rams. I'm just trying to win Week 1.
---
So my normal starting lineup will be Herbert, Javonte, Gordon, CeeDee, Marquise, Kirk, Kittle, McPherson, and the Bills, with Gallup and Hines serving as functional fill-ins. As always, I wish I'd done some things differently. And that's the point. We can't get most of what we want. But we can pick our moments, and as long as we come prepared, those moments will be fairly clear when they happen.
A final reminder that if you want to compete in the free Fantasy Bingo competition, click here: https://bit.ly/3Q9hMxL. Takes only a few minutes to set your team, and then you can forget about it until I announce in January that you've won, and your life is forever changed.
Good luck if you have players going tonight. I'll predict the Rams winning 20-16. If you want to guess the final score, comment below. Closest guess wins a shout-out.