One NFL injury is one injury too many. And one *preseason* NFL injury feels like two injuries too many. Every summer, several terrific players are lost for most or all of the season. In the past 48 hours, three fantasy-relevant WRs went down. Let's try to make sense of the implications.
First, Tim Patrick. Lost for the year with an ACL tear. He led all Broncos in each of the last two years in receiving TDs, and he's been second each of the last two years in receiving yards. The former undrafted free agent caught his first NFL pass a couple months shy of his 25th birthday, when he was running behind fourth-round pick DaeSean Hamilton, among others. Hamilton is no longer in the league. Patrick was poised to be one of the league's top #3 wideouts. Ugh. That's all that can be said.
Clearly, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy get a boost. As PFN Pass rankings subscribers know, they've moved from 21 and 25, respectively, on my WR draft board to 16 and 20. This has become a top-heavier receiving corps, as no backup wideout possesses Patrick's proven reliability. K.J. Hamler, a 2020 second-round pick, will be a trendy late-round flier. I'm comfortable with that approach, though these next three weeks will tell us if Hamler is ready to contribute by Week 1. Hamler is recovering from his own ACL tear, and fifth-round rookie Montrell Washington could push for a September role. Deep leaguers should pay close attention to this potential depth chart battle.
Also keep an eye on what Denver does in free agency. This franchise is set up to make a Super Bowl run. Will Fuller, T.Y. Hilton (yes, I know, but . . .), and some other experienced pass-catchers remain available. When someone like Chester Rogers is visiting with the Texans, it says a lot about the competitive state of the NFL. There aren't a lot of great options out there. But they're capable. And after sizing up their rosters these next few weeks, some teams won't be satisfied with who they have. If Denver makes a move, it'll be because Hamler and/or Washington aren't ready to step up.
Meanwhile, James Washington will be out until mid-September or possibly as late as mid-October with a broken foot. Subscribers know I did not buy into the Washington hype this summer, preferring Jalen Tolbert in the short term and seeing Washington as the #5 receiver by midseason behind CeeDee Lamb, Tolbert, a returning Michael Gallup, and Dalton Schultz. Washington's injury leaves little doubt that he'll be waiver fodder for most or all of the season, barring an injury to one of Dallas's top three WRs. Remember, the Cowboys signed Washington to a cheap one-year contract. He's a rental turning 27 next offseason, and with a poor 52% career catch rate. If you're investing in Dallas receivers, Tolbert is the big winner and should be drafted as a top-50 WR with top 35-40 upside, even when Gallup is back.
Finally, Van Jefferson is set to have knee surgery, and his Week 1 status is up in the air. The Rams might finally sign Odell Beckham Jr. Or they could stand pat with Brent Skowronek & co. until Jefferson's back. Or . . . Tutu Atwell could step up. Atwell was a second-round pick last year, but was boxed out in one of the league's deepest and most talented WR corps. Then he was lost for the season in Week 8 with a shoulder injury.
Teams generally don't draft receivers in the second round and keep them hidden for several years. Atwell is one of the best unranked fantasy options out there, and in the next couple weeks he could become one of the trendiest late-round picks. While the #3 job remains Jefferson's, that doesn't preclude Atwell from earning a spot start if Jefferson has to sit, and that could create a logjam that keeps Jefferson out of the top 55. Yesterday I pushed Jefferson down about 15 WR spots on my board, and Atwell made his first appearance. Let's see what happens these next two weeks.
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First, Tim Patrick. Lost for the year with an ACL tear. He led all Broncos in each of the last two years in receiving TDs, and he's been second each of the last two years in receiving yards. The former undrafted free agent caught his first NFL pass a couple months shy of his 25th birthday, when he was running behind fourth-round pick DaeSean Hamilton, among others. Hamilton is no longer in the league. Patrick was poised to be one of the league's top #3 wideouts. Ugh. That's all that can be said.
Clearly, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy get a boost. As PFN Pass rankings subscribers know, they've moved from 21 and 25, respectively, on my WR draft board to 16 and 20. This has become a top-heavier receiving corps, as no backup wideout possesses Patrick's proven reliability. K.J. Hamler, a 2020 second-round pick, will be a trendy late-round flier. I'm comfortable with that approach, though these next three weeks will tell us if Hamler is ready to contribute by Week 1. Hamler is recovering from his own ACL tear, and fifth-round rookie Montrell Washington could push for a September role. Deep leaguers should pay close attention to this potential depth chart battle.
Also keep an eye on what Denver does in free agency. This franchise is set up to make a Super Bowl run. Will Fuller, T.Y. Hilton (yes, I know, but . . .), and some other experienced pass-catchers remain available. When someone like Chester Rogers is visiting with the Texans, it says a lot about the competitive state of the NFL. There aren't a lot of great options out there. But they're capable. And after sizing up their rosters these next few weeks, some teams won't be satisfied with who they have. If Denver makes a move, it'll be because Hamler and/or Washington aren't ready to step up.
Meanwhile, James Washington will be out until mid-September or possibly as late as mid-October with a broken foot. Subscribers know I did not buy into the Washington hype this summer, preferring Jalen Tolbert in the short term and seeing Washington as the #5 receiver by midseason behind CeeDee Lamb, Tolbert, a returning Michael Gallup, and Dalton Schultz. Washington's injury leaves little doubt that he'll be waiver fodder for most or all of the season, barring an injury to one of Dallas's top three WRs. Remember, the Cowboys signed Washington to a cheap one-year contract. He's a rental turning 27 next offseason, and with a poor 52% career catch rate. If you're investing in Dallas receivers, Tolbert is the big winner and should be drafted as a top-50 WR with top 35-40 upside, even when Gallup is back.
Finally, Van Jefferson is set to have knee surgery, and his Week 1 status is up in the air. The Rams might finally sign Odell Beckham Jr. Or they could stand pat with Brent Skowronek & co. until Jefferson's back. Or . . . Tutu Atwell could step up. Atwell was a second-round pick last year, but was boxed out in one of the league's deepest and most talented WR corps. Then he was lost for the season in Week 8 with a shoulder injury.
Teams generally don't draft receivers in the second round and keep them hidden for several years. Atwell is one of the best unranked fantasy options out there, and in the next couple weeks he could become one of the trendiest late-round picks. While the #3 job remains Jefferson's, that doesn't preclude Atwell from earning a spot start if Jefferson has to sit, and that could create a logjam that keeps Jefferson out of the top 55. Yesterday I pushed Jefferson down about 15 WR spots on my board, and Atwell made his first appearance. Let's see what happens these next two weeks.
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Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/