The NFL returned last night with the Hall of Fame game between the Raiders and Jaguars. Preseason games often have one of two bad outcomes: a great player gets hurt, and/or a fantasy sleeper shines, meaning they're no longer a sleeper, which is bad news for savvy managers.
Last night, the former seems to have been avoided. But the latter hit big with Zamir White looking like a bell-cow ready RB. His overall ADP entering the game was 192. As PFN Pass and TD Pass subscribers know, I had him at 122. In the coming days, his ADP should skyrocket, meaning some of us have lost a strategic edge. And that's just how things go in Fantasy Land.
But . . . there are always more competitive edges to find, including in the Raiders' backfield. So let's take a couple minutes to dive deeper into one of the most interesting RBs corps in fantasy, starting with White. As long as he's healthy, he can be "the guy" in this backfield as soon as this season. I shared this in the Draft Kit, and his ranking reflected it. All that remains is what the Raiders do with Josh Jacobs.
Jacobs was the big fantasy loser last night. No offense to Jacobs, who surely doesn't care what his fantasy value is. But when the Raiders went to him early and often last night, the writing was on the wall: this franchise intends to trade him before the deadline. Facing an underwhelming Jaguars defense, Jacobs looked sharp. The team didn't pick up his fifth-year option, meaning unless they need him for a Super Bowl run, they're better off unloading him for o-line or defensive help. There are plenty of NFC title contenders (because there's almost no way Vegas would trade him to an AFC contender) that could use an RB rental. As strange as it might see, imagine the Eagles with a one-two punch of Jacobs and Miles Sanders to help them get over the hump in the NFC East. Or the Saints would love to have a complement to the overworked Alvin Kamara--in addition to the declining 32-year-old Mark Ingram.
I discussed Jacobs' trade prospects in the Draft Kit. After last night, I'm banking on it. In addition to White and Jacobs, the Raiders have Kenyan Drake, Brandon Bolden, Ameer Abdullah, Austin Walter, and Brittain Brown. That's too many NFL-capable guys. Brown is a seventh-round rookie. Walter is a journeyman playing on his fourth team in four years. He and Drake and Abdullah will be free agents after this season. The team has an easy out with Bolden, too, though the 32-year-old probably will stick around for both years of his contract.
So the Raiders are staring at a (relatively) overloaded backfield. Signing Davante Adams was supposed to make this team a passing juggernaut. There's almost no reason to keep guys like Drake and Bolden and Abdullah on the bench most games. Or if Drake and Bolden see a few touches each week, that might mean giving Jacobs and White about 10-12 touches each. If you have a one-year window to win it all, then of course you hold onto your deep RB corps as an insurance policy. But the Raiders have a multi-year window, and that window will close a bit if they get nothing for Jacobs, and to a lesser extent, Drake.
If the Raiders do trade Jacobs, then of course White's value would skyrocket into the top 20 RBs, and possibly the top 14. Drake would get a boost, too. And Jacobs' value would almost certainly fall, though a midseason trade to a team that's lost its starter would keep Jacobs firmly in the top-20 conversation.
So my recommendation is to continue drafting White well ahead of his ADP, which didn't make sense a month ago, and makes even less sense today. The odds are good that he'll start several games, and possibly 10+, because the odds are good that Jacobs will be in another uniform within the next three months--or maybe the next three weeks.
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Last night, the former seems to have been avoided. But the latter hit big with Zamir White looking like a bell-cow ready RB. His overall ADP entering the game was 192. As PFN Pass and TD Pass subscribers know, I had him at 122. In the coming days, his ADP should skyrocket, meaning some of us have lost a strategic edge. And that's just how things go in Fantasy Land.
But . . . there are always more competitive edges to find, including in the Raiders' backfield. So let's take a couple minutes to dive deeper into one of the most interesting RBs corps in fantasy, starting with White. As long as he's healthy, he can be "the guy" in this backfield as soon as this season. I shared this in the Draft Kit, and his ranking reflected it. All that remains is what the Raiders do with Josh Jacobs.
Jacobs was the big fantasy loser last night. No offense to Jacobs, who surely doesn't care what his fantasy value is. But when the Raiders went to him early and often last night, the writing was on the wall: this franchise intends to trade him before the deadline. Facing an underwhelming Jaguars defense, Jacobs looked sharp. The team didn't pick up his fifth-year option, meaning unless they need him for a Super Bowl run, they're better off unloading him for o-line or defensive help. There are plenty of NFC title contenders (because there's almost no way Vegas would trade him to an AFC contender) that could use an RB rental. As strange as it might see, imagine the Eagles with a one-two punch of Jacobs and Miles Sanders to help them get over the hump in the NFC East. Or the Saints would love to have a complement to the overworked Alvin Kamara--in addition to the declining 32-year-old Mark Ingram.
I discussed Jacobs' trade prospects in the Draft Kit. After last night, I'm banking on it. In addition to White and Jacobs, the Raiders have Kenyan Drake, Brandon Bolden, Ameer Abdullah, Austin Walter, and Brittain Brown. That's too many NFL-capable guys. Brown is a seventh-round rookie. Walter is a journeyman playing on his fourth team in four years. He and Drake and Abdullah will be free agents after this season. The team has an easy out with Bolden, too, though the 32-year-old probably will stick around for both years of his contract.
So the Raiders are staring at a (relatively) overloaded backfield. Signing Davante Adams was supposed to make this team a passing juggernaut. There's almost no reason to keep guys like Drake and Bolden and Abdullah on the bench most games. Or if Drake and Bolden see a few touches each week, that might mean giving Jacobs and White about 10-12 touches each. If you have a one-year window to win it all, then of course you hold onto your deep RB corps as an insurance policy. But the Raiders have a multi-year window, and that window will close a bit if they get nothing for Jacobs, and to a lesser extent, Drake.
If the Raiders do trade Jacobs, then of course White's value would skyrocket into the top 20 RBs, and possibly the top 14. Drake would get a boost, too. And Jacobs' value would almost certainly fall, though a midseason trade to a team that's lost its starter would keep Jacobs firmly in the top-20 conversation.
So my recommendation is to continue drafting White well ahead of his ADP, which didn't make sense a month ago, and makes even less sense today. The odds are good that he'll start several games, and possibly 10+, because the odds are good that Jacobs will be in another uniform within the next three months--or maybe the next three weeks.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/