Yesterday focused on Nick Chubb in Cleveland. Today, some thoughts on Rashaad Penny and the rest of Seattle's backfield. Some similarities, in that both teams likely will have bottom-half offenses. Both lead backs (assuming Penny is the 1A, and we'll get to that shortly) have demonstrated exceptional rushing effiency, but not much usage in the passing game. Both are 26 and seemingly in their prime.
But the situation in Seattle is tougher to assess. For starters, Penny has a long injury history. We could easily argue that he's one of the most injury-prone "starting" RBs in the league, possibly alongside Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley--though with a much lower ceiling than those two. Also, while Chubb is all but assured no less than the 1A role, Penny is fighting for weekly relevance. Rookie Kenneth Walker might take over as the 1A at any time. And the 23-year-old DeeJay Dallas remains one of my favorite undraftable #3/#4 RBs out there. Sure, Travis Homer also could make some noise at some point. But Dallas is a name to keep filing away, given the durability concerns at the top of the depth chart.
And durability concerns are real. Aside from Penny's annual challenges, it was reported yesterday that Walker had hernia surgery and will be out until at least Week 1. If you've drafted Walker, this is obviously not the time to sell low. He could still be "the guy" by midseason--again, because of Penny's injury history. But the news throws this backfield into more chaos, making it even more difficult to accurately value each of these four guys.
There's a realistic scenario where Walker isn't up to speed until Week 3. Could this make Dallas or Homer an early-season PPR deep-league streamer? From where I'm sitting, quite possibly. Would it make either draftable? Presumably not yet.
There are also realistic scenarios where Seattle doesn't have the firepower to stay competitive. Having two likely bottom-10 QBs doesn't help. So early this season when they face the Broncos, Niners, Saints, Cardinals, Chargers, and Bucs, how often will they be down by 2+ TDs by halftime? At what point does head coach Pete Carroll turn to Dallas and/or Homer?
Because I doubt this franchise re-ups with the soon-to-be 27-year-old Penny after this season. They're in partial rebuilding mode. Dallas was a 2020 fourth-round pick with two years remaining on his rookie contract. I believe if there's an opportunity to give him more run, Carroll will, because they need to know if he and Walker are enough to lead this backfield in 2023.
Injury concerns. Negative game scripts. And perhaps a greater focus on playoff contention next season. Walker's surgery is a reminder that this backfield is far from settled, and it probably won't be settled until next summer at the earliest. For now, there are four guys who could have fantasy impacts. Penny and Walker are the obvious frontrunners and deserve to be valued much higher. But Dallas (and to a slightly lesser extent, Homer) have to be viewed as spot-starters-in-waiting.
RBs are always risk-reward propositions. The Seahawks' backfield is simply a more heightened example.
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But the situation in Seattle is tougher to assess. For starters, Penny has a long injury history. We could easily argue that he's one of the most injury-prone "starting" RBs in the league, possibly alongside Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley--though with a much lower ceiling than those two. Also, while Chubb is all but assured no less than the 1A role, Penny is fighting for weekly relevance. Rookie Kenneth Walker might take over as the 1A at any time. And the 23-year-old DeeJay Dallas remains one of my favorite undraftable #3/#4 RBs out there. Sure, Travis Homer also could make some noise at some point. But Dallas is a name to keep filing away, given the durability concerns at the top of the depth chart.
And durability concerns are real. Aside from Penny's annual challenges, it was reported yesterday that Walker had hernia surgery and will be out until at least Week 1. If you've drafted Walker, this is obviously not the time to sell low. He could still be "the guy" by midseason--again, because of Penny's injury history. But the news throws this backfield into more chaos, making it even more difficult to accurately value each of these four guys.
There's a realistic scenario where Walker isn't up to speed until Week 3. Could this make Dallas or Homer an early-season PPR deep-league streamer? From where I'm sitting, quite possibly. Would it make either draftable? Presumably not yet.
There are also realistic scenarios where Seattle doesn't have the firepower to stay competitive. Having two likely bottom-10 QBs doesn't help. So early this season when they face the Broncos, Niners, Saints, Cardinals, Chargers, and Bucs, how often will they be down by 2+ TDs by halftime? At what point does head coach Pete Carroll turn to Dallas and/or Homer?
Because I doubt this franchise re-ups with the soon-to-be 27-year-old Penny after this season. They're in partial rebuilding mode. Dallas was a 2020 fourth-round pick with two years remaining on his rookie contract. I believe if there's an opportunity to give him more run, Carroll will, because they need to know if he and Walker are enough to lead this backfield in 2023.
Injury concerns. Negative game scripts. And perhaps a greater focus on playoff contention next season. Walker's surgery is a reminder that this backfield is far from settled, and it probably won't be settled until next summer at the earliest. For now, there are four guys who could have fantasy impacts. Penny and Walker are the obvious frontrunners and deserve to be valued much higher. But Dallas (and to a slightly lesser extent, Homer) have to be viewed as spot-starters-in-waiting.
RBs are always risk-reward propositions. The Seahawks' backfield is simply a more heightened example.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/