There were more preseason games yesterday, as some of you know. And if you didn't know, don't worry. You didn't miss much. But since we're nearing the end of the preseason, and since many of us are drafting soon, these games (and today's games) are essentially all we have left until Week 1. ADPs will solidify in the coming days. A fluke injury in practice next week (like we saw last year around this time) could dramatically change things. But for now, let's see if anything that happened yesterday might move the needle on player values.
For starters, Malik Willis. Last month I shared that anytime we hear a reporter say a rookie QB "doesn't look ready" in June, it's largely meaningless. Most rookie QBs don't "look ready" in June. They're judged largely by how quickly they can learn the playbook, discern what the defense will do, run through their progressions, etc. In June, there was a lot of public dismissiveness about Malik Willis, including the dreaded "he doesn't look ready" and "he won't play this year."
So again, none of that matters. That's not hyperbole. It really doesn't. The Titans drafted Willis in the third round. He fell further than many experts anticipated. It signaled (to many people) that there were doubts about Willis's ability to translate what he did at a small college to the NFL. But despite his somewhat steep learning curve, he's incredible talented. And sometimes that matters more. He has a baseline that other formerly touted QBs (who haven't broken through in the league) don't have.
And just as importantly, the Titans are in trouble this year. I wrote eight pieces for PFN last week on each division's likely winner, and how the other teams would finish. I've got the Colts winning the AFC South, which isn't a shocker given that they're currently favorites. But I've got the Titans winning no more than nine games. Given their tough October/November schedule, Tannehill is a longshot to keep his job all season. Willis might not be an exceptional or even middling QB as a rookie. Still, for fantasy purposes, he might be better than Tannehill on a per-game basis this season--if he gets the chance. I still really like his value in dynasty, and yesterday he reinforced why.
Elsewhere, yesterday was a slight win for Marcus Mariota. A fantastic performance from Desmond Ridder could have put a lot more pressure on the veteran to open the season. But the rookie took a small step backward. In shallow leagues, it'll be tough to trust either as a streamer. For now, though, Mariota should get at least 4-5 games, and if the Falcons' season looks over by the halfway point, then it would be surprising if Ridder doesn't get a chance.
If Skylar Thompson doesn't become Miami's No. 2 QB soon, then what are this franchise doing? The rookie's outplayed Teddy Bridgewater each of the last two games, and also looked terrific in his preseason Week 1 debut. There's clearly a scenario where Tua Tagovailoa gets hurt for a couple games in November or December, and the team has to decide whether to play it safe with their veteran, or go all in on Thompson. If it's Bridgewater, then it would be hard to see him as a top-18 QB. If it's Thompson, then his ceiling (and surrounding talent) would make him streamable against most opponents.
Don't get too caught up in Justin Fields' brilliant outing last night. Maybe one or two of you got an e-mail from an opponent, offering you Fields for, say, Trey Lance. Maybe I'm completely off about this, but as of right now, Lance is much more valuable. Investing in Fields because he picked apart the Browns' backups doesn't mean he'll be a top-18 QB. I still like Fields as a good or even great future NFL starter. And he needs more playmakers, not just Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and an array of NFL cast-offs.
If you're drafting today/tonight and want to bounce anything off me--or off this community--jump in anytime. And enjoy the final two preseason games. We're getting close to the real thing . . .
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Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/
For starters, Malik Willis. Last month I shared that anytime we hear a reporter say a rookie QB "doesn't look ready" in June, it's largely meaningless. Most rookie QBs don't "look ready" in June. They're judged largely by how quickly they can learn the playbook, discern what the defense will do, run through their progressions, etc. In June, there was a lot of public dismissiveness about Malik Willis, including the dreaded "he doesn't look ready" and "he won't play this year."
So again, none of that matters. That's not hyperbole. It really doesn't. The Titans drafted Willis in the third round. He fell further than many experts anticipated. It signaled (to many people) that there were doubts about Willis's ability to translate what he did at a small college to the NFL. But despite his somewhat steep learning curve, he's incredible talented. And sometimes that matters more. He has a baseline that other formerly touted QBs (who haven't broken through in the league) don't have.
And just as importantly, the Titans are in trouble this year. I wrote eight pieces for PFN last week on each division's likely winner, and how the other teams would finish. I've got the Colts winning the AFC South, which isn't a shocker given that they're currently favorites. But I've got the Titans winning no more than nine games. Given their tough October/November schedule, Tannehill is a longshot to keep his job all season. Willis might not be an exceptional or even middling QB as a rookie. Still, for fantasy purposes, he might be better than Tannehill on a per-game basis this season--if he gets the chance. I still really like his value in dynasty, and yesterday he reinforced why.
Elsewhere, yesterday was a slight win for Marcus Mariota. A fantastic performance from Desmond Ridder could have put a lot more pressure on the veteran to open the season. But the rookie took a small step backward. In shallow leagues, it'll be tough to trust either as a streamer. For now, though, Mariota should get at least 4-5 games, and if the Falcons' season looks over by the halfway point, then it would be surprising if Ridder doesn't get a chance.
If Skylar Thompson doesn't become Miami's No. 2 QB soon, then what are this franchise doing? The rookie's outplayed Teddy Bridgewater each of the last two games, and also looked terrific in his preseason Week 1 debut. There's clearly a scenario where Tua Tagovailoa gets hurt for a couple games in November or December, and the team has to decide whether to play it safe with their veteran, or go all in on Thompson. If it's Bridgewater, then it would be hard to see him as a top-18 QB. If it's Thompson, then his ceiling (and surrounding talent) would make him streamable against most opponents.
Don't get too caught up in Justin Fields' brilliant outing last night. Maybe one or two of you got an e-mail from an opponent, offering you Fields for, say, Trey Lance. Maybe I'm completely off about this, but as of right now, Lance is much more valuable. Investing in Fields because he picked apart the Browns' backups doesn't mean he'll be a top-18 QB. I still like Fields as a good or even great future NFL starter. And he needs more playmakers, not just Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and an array of NFL cast-offs.
If you're drafting today/tonight and want to bounce anything off me--or off this community--jump in anytime. And enjoy the final two preseason games. We're getting close to the real thing . . .
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/