We know how hard it is to dominate a fantasy draft, especially against tough competition. I just wrapped up a slow-draft (up to eight hours per pick) Best Ball draft against other industry fantasy analysts, and the I kept needing to remind myself: "It's okay to be weaker at a position."
And "weaker" can be defined two ways. Universally, it means sometimes we have to accept having a bunch of non-top-20 RBs and hope at least one breaks through . . . if we've crushed it at QB, WR, and TE. Yes, it's entirely possible to dominate a league if we start off with Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Kyle Pitts, and Justin Herbert (assuming all four thrive, as expected), and then backfill with a Damien Harris / Rhamondre Stevenson combo in the middle rounds, interlocked with a Devin Singletary / James Cook combo.
Or pick any individual or combo RBs you want. Last year Leonard Fournette and James Conner had RB ADPs outside the top 30 and were coming off the board, on average, in the 7th/8th rounds of 12-team leagues. Both finished in the top 10. The year before, Kareem Hunt and David Montgomery did the same despite being the preseason RB28 and 27.
And that brings up the other way to define "weaker." To others, they might seem weak, because their ADP is so low. But that doesn't make them weak picks. If you believe in them, then that's good enough. And we can--and should--use that to our advantage in drafts.
It's why I'm always tracking which seemingly "weak" players at each position (a) are still available, and (b) likely to be taken in the next few rounds. Because by roughly round 5, we can figure out which of our opponents are drafting based largely on ADP, and which ones are making unpredictable decisions--like "reaching" for the overall 84 ADP DeVonta Smith in the 6th round, instead of waiting for the 7th or even early 8th. That opponent is more likely to know what they're doing and why they're doing it. And that makes that opponent dangerous, because well-placed unpredictability is nearly impossible to anticipate. And that makes it harder for us to know how long to wait before jumping on our favorite value picks.
In my Best Ball draft, I discovered by round 2 that these people were, by and large, savvy. But by round 4, it was clear that most were leaning on ADP. Rarely did someone draft a player who was 5+ spots below the top ADP player available, and usually it was because that opponent had a gaping hole at a position and needed to start filling it.
That knowledge--or at least, that sense of reality--gave me the confidence to go "weak" on QBs and TEs after watching most of my opponents take an elite or near-elite QB and/or TE in the first two rounds. Since it's a Superflex league, the lineup can include a second QB, making them a lot more valuable. So 16 of the first 24 picks were QBs/TEs. I could have taken Kyle Pitts in round 3, and Tua Tagovailoa was the next-best-ADP QB available. But I decided to trust my research and wait as long as possible to lock in those two positions.
I've heard too many stories about managers trying to keep pace, instead of setting the pace. Trying to keep pace can lead to desperate decision making. Setting the pace puts the desperation on our opponents.
In this Best Ball league, the weekly point scorers are the highest scorers from these positions: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Flex, and Superflex. The two flex spots can be any non-QB. So I started the draft going RB-RB-RB with Najee Harris, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook. No one had more than one RB by the time I took my third, and three opponents had zero RBs. As I shared last week re: positional runs, I was trying to put pressure on all of them to play catch-up. And it worked: nine of the next 22 picks were RBs.
My next four picks were WRs: Keenan Allen and Mike Williams (a Best Ball stack in the belief that at least one should do very well each week, and quite possibly both), Brandin Cooks, and Rashod Bateman. After the first two, 10 of my opponents' next 22 picks were WRs. After my third and fourth WR, another 10 of the next 22 picks were WRs.
With only about a half-dozen starting QBs remaining, I made my move at the 8/9 turn with Zach Wilson and Jared Goff, in the belief that at least one should crack 16 points most weeks, and quite possibly 18 if either takes a step forward. I'm all in on Goff, and I'm tentatively in on Wilson. My preference was Jameis Winston, but he went three picks earlier. Later I added Mitch Trubisky (round 13) and Mason Rudolph (round 22) to almost guarantee a third QB starter all season--another shot at 16+ points each week, with some upside.
As for my other "weak" position, after I snagged Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney at the 10-11 turn, I started looking to TEs. Had my three favorite great-upside bargains been near the top of the remaining ADP list, I would have gone TE at 10-11. But six TEs remained ahead of David Njoku, and approximately 10 were ahead of Austin Hooper and Hayden Hurst. I had made all three my primary targets near the beginning of the draft, when it was clear I needed to zag in a different positional directions than my opponents. When it got back to me at 12-13, I took Njoku (who was the top ADP TE available, so that was lucky) and Trubisky, rolling the dice that my other two favorite TEs would still be there at 14-15.
And in fairness, it wasn't really a dice roll. Five of my opponents already had 2+ TEs. All but one had at least one. Sure enough, only one TE came off the board, and I landed Hooper and Hurst. And with my opponents then loading up on WRs, I added Jamaal Williams and Darrel Williams at 16/17. With eight of the next 22 picks going RB, I went Terrace Marshall and A.J. Green. With eight of the next 22 picks going WR, I went back to RB, taking Dontrell Hilliard and Sony Michel. 10 of the next 22 picks were RBs.
As always, who knows how this will turn out. It's all based on perceived values. The Chargers could somehow underwhelm. All three of my RBs could get hurt in Week 3. And so on. But the key takeaway is that in most leagues, we can't walk away from a draft "strong" at every position. Knowing that, we have to come prepared to pick our moments with high-upside bargains at some positions while setting the tempo with elite / near-elite players at other positions. If I'd started the draft with Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, how many more points would that have gotten me each week at the QB slot (and sure, also at the Superflex slot) vs. the trio of Zach Wilson, Goff, and Trubisky/Rudolph? Maybe five points per weeks? Or eight? Can my combo of three supposedly elite RBs cover that gap? My strategy assumes "yes." Of course, we'll see if it works out.
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And "weaker" can be defined two ways. Universally, it means sometimes we have to accept having a bunch of non-top-20 RBs and hope at least one breaks through . . . if we've crushed it at QB, WR, and TE. Yes, it's entirely possible to dominate a league if we start off with Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Kyle Pitts, and Justin Herbert (assuming all four thrive, as expected), and then backfill with a Damien Harris / Rhamondre Stevenson combo in the middle rounds, interlocked with a Devin Singletary / James Cook combo.
Or pick any individual or combo RBs you want. Last year Leonard Fournette and James Conner had RB ADPs outside the top 30 and were coming off the board, on average, in the 7th/8th rounds of 12-team leagues. Both finished in the top 10. The year before, Kareem Hunt and David Montgomery did the same despite being the preseason RB28 and 27.
And that brings up the other way to define "weaker." To others, they might seem weak, because their ADP is so low. But that doesn't make them weak picks. If you believe in them, then that's good enough. And we can--and should--use that to our advantage in drafts.
It's why I'm always tracking which seemingly "weak" players at each position (a) are still available, and (b) likely to be taken in the next few rounds. Because by roughly round 5, we can figure out which of our opponents are drafting based largely on ADP, and which ones are making unpredictable decisions--like "reaching" for the overall 84 ADP DeVonta Smith in the 6th round, instead of waiting for the 7th or even early 8th. That opponent is more likely to know what they're doing and why they're doing it. And that makes that opponent dangerous, because well-placed unpredictability is nearly impossible to anticipate. And that makes it harder for us to know how long to wait before jumping on our favorite value picks.
In my Best Ball draft, I discovered by round 2 that these people were, by and large, savvy. But by round 4, it was clear that most were leaning on ADP. Rarely did someone draft a player who was 5+ spots below the top ADP player available, and usually it was because that opponent had a gaping hole at a position and needed to start filling it.
That knowledge--or at least, that sense of reality--gave me the confidence to go "weak" on QBs and TEs after watching most of my opponents take an elite or near-elite QB and/or TE in the first two rounds. Since it's a Superflex league, the lineup can include a second QB, making them a lot more valuable. So 16 of the first 24 picks were QBs/TEs. I could have taken Kyle Pitts in round 3, and Tua Tagovailoa was the next-best-ADP QB available. But I decided to trust my research and wait as long as possible to lock in those two positions.
I've heard too many stories about managers trying to keep pace, instead of setting the pace. Trying to keep pace can lead to desperate decision making. Setting the pace puts the desperation on our opponents.
In this Best Ball league, the weekly point scorers are the highest scorers from these positions: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Flex, and Superflex. The two flex spots can be any non-QB. So I started the draft going RB-RB-RB with Najee Harris, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook. No one had more than one RB by the time I took my third, and three opponents had zero RBs. As I shared last week re: positional runs, I was trying to put pressure on all of them to play catch-up. And it worked: nine of the next 22 picks were RBs.
My next four picks were WRs: Keenan Allen and Mike Williams (a Best Ball stack in the belief that at least one should do very well each week, and quite possibly both), Brandin Cooks, and Rashod Bateman. After the first two, 10 of my opponents' next 22 picks were WRs. After my third and fourth WR, another 10 of the next 22 picks were WRs.
With only about a half-dozen starting QBs remaining, I made my move at the 8/9 turn with Zach Wilson and Jared Goff, in the belief that at least one should crack 16 points most weeks, and quite possibly 18 if either takes a step forward. I'm all in on Goff, and I'm tentatively in on Wilson. My preference was Jameis Winston, but he went three picks earlier. Later I added Mitch Trubisky (round 13) and Mason Rudolph (round 22) to almost guarantee a third QB starter all season--another shot at 16+ points each week, with some upside.
As for my other "weak" position, after I snagged Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney at the 10-11 turn, I started looking to TEs. Had my three favorite great-upside bargains been near the top of the remaining ADP list, I would have gone TE at 10-11. But six TEs remained ahead of David Njoku, and approximately 10 were ahead of Austin Hooper and Hayden Hurst. I had made all three my primary targets near the beginning of the draft, when it was clear I needed to zag in a different positional directions than my opponents. When it got back to me at 12-13, I took Njoku (who was the top ADP TE available, so that was lucky) and Trubisky, rolling the dice that my other two favorite TEs would still be there at 14-15.
And in fairness, it wasn't really a dice roll. Five of my opponents already had 2+ TEs. All but one had at least one. Sure enough, only one TE came off the board, and I landed Hooper and Hurst. And with my opponents then loading up on WRs, I added Jamaal Williams and Darrel Williams at 16/17. With eight of the next 22 picks going RB, I went Terrace Marshall and A.J. Green. With eight of the next 22 picks going WR, I went back to RB, taking Dontrell Hilliard and Sony Michel. 10 of the next 22 picks were RBs.
As always, who knows how this will turn out. It's all based on perceived values. The Chargers could somehow underwhelm. All three of my RBs could get hurt in Week 3. And so on. But the key takeaway is that in most leagues, we can't walk away from a draft "strong" at every position. Knowing that, we have to come prepared to pick our moments with high-upside bargains at some positions while setting the tempo with elite / near-elite players at other positions. If I'd started the draft with Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, how many more points would that have gotten me each week at the QB slot (and sure, also at the Superflex slot) vs. the trio of Zach Wilson, Goff, and Trubisky/Rudolph? Maybe five points per weeks? Or eight? Can my combo of three supposedly elite RBs cover that gap? My strategy assumes "yes." Of course, we'll see if it works out.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/