Today I want to dive into four major fantasy storylines from yesterday's games. The first concerns Washington's backfield. All summer I've ranked Antonio Gibson comfortably ahead of rookie Brian Robinson. But a complete reshuffling as always been in the cards.
As PFN Pass subscribers have seen, I developed "range-of-outcome" variables for about 400 players. About 1,500 variables in all, each about 100-200 words describing what could push each player's 2022 production higher or lower. Since June, my three variables for Gibson have been (1) how quickly Brian Robinson acclimates to the league, (2) J.D. McKissic's target share, and (3) Gibson's ball security.
This game was the one I was most looking forward to this weekend. Gibson has an RB19 ADP. Robinson's is 62. If Gibson showed well compared to Robinson, I'd feel good about the veteran heading into Week 1. Instead, this was a reminder of when and how preseason games matter. After losing four fumbles last year, Gibson coughed up another. I read that he's had similar troubles in camp. The problem isn't going away. And Robinson outplayed him in pretty much every facet in his NFL debut.
I try not to overreact to what happens on the field. Players have good outings and bad. The preseason is not usually an accurate indicator of what someone can do when the games count. However, the whole point of the range-of-outcome variables is to tip us off when one of them comes to fruition. Yesterday, in the span of about an hour, two of Gibson's variables played out. And it's hard to argue that either one was a fluke.
As a result, I'm now ranking Robinson ahead of Gibson, which understandably might seem insane given how far apart they are in ADP. But I've seen enough. Even if Robinson isn't the Week 1 starter, Gibson's hold on the job would be the weakest it's ever been.
Elsewhere, Rachaad White stood out for Tampa Bay. As many of you know, I'm down on Leonard Fournette this year, and as a result am relatively high on White. For this to play out as expected, the rookie needs to have a strong camp. Yesterday, he took a big step forward. I'd be thrilled to draft him at his RB54 ADP.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs' backfield is a mess. I understand the hype surrounding Isiah Pacheco. Who wouldn't root for that guy? But it's more complicated than that. Kansas City is loaded with playmakers of varying skills and experience. And their backfield still has a lot more RBs than the team can feed. Until it thins out, Pacheco is a cool story with top 50-60 upside. Could he become another J.D. McKissic? Maybe. But more realistically, he could become a situational (i.e. 3-4 touches a game) contributor. Great for the Chiefs. Not helpful for fantasy managers. I'm urging folks to wait a week before annointing him as "draftable."
Finally, the Texans' backfield depth chart seems to be shaking out. Rookie Dameon Pierce has earned plenty of buzz, and yesterday he took care of business, while Marlon Mack struggled. I'm still wondering, though, if Houston will bring in a veteran before the season starts. Pierce never exceeded 123 touches in a college season. This category of running back typically hasn't earned much run in their careers. Tony Pollard is the only RB in this category (a high of 117 touches in college) in the last three years to make fantasy noise. The last weekly NFL starter in this category was 2006 draftee Kenyan Drake (high of 106 touches in college).
This doesn't make Pierce a fantasy bust. But he has to be a statistical anomaly. There are probably good reasons why most head coaches don't give 250 rookie carries to guys with Pierce's college workload. So keep this in mind before over-investing in him. If Mack falters, we might see Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, or another veteran joining the team to help mentor Pierce and limit his load. After all, Houston needs him more next year -- when they hope to be more competitive -- than they will this year.
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As PFN Pass subscribers have seen, I developed "range-of-outcome" variables for about 400 players. About 1,500 variables in all, each about 100-200 words describing what could push each player's 2022 production higher or lower. Since June, my three variables for Gibson have been (1) how quickly Brian Robinson acclimates to the league, (2) J.D. McKissic's target share, and (3) Gibson's ball security.
This game was the one I was most looking forward to this weekend. Gibson has an RB19 ADP. Robinson's is 62. If Gibson showed well compared to Robinson, I'd feel good about the veteran heading into Week 1. Instead, this was a reminder of when and how preseason games matter. After losing four fumbles last year, Gibson coughed up another. I read that he's had similar troubles in camp. The problem isn't going away. And Robinson outplayed him in pretty much every facet in his NFL debut.
I try not to overreact to what happens on the field. Players have good outings and bad. The preseason is not usually an accurate indicator of what someone can do when the games count. However, the whole point of the range-of-outcome variables is to tip us off when one of them comes to fruition. Yesterday, in the span of about an hour, two of Gibson's variables played out. And it's hard to argue that either one was a fluke.
As a result, I'm now ranking Robinson ahead of Gibson, which understandably might seem insane given how far apart they are in ADP. But I've seen enough. Even if Robinson isn't the Week 1 starter, Gibson's hold on the job would be the weakest it's ever been.
Elsewhere, Rachaad White stood out for Tampa Bay. As many of you know, I'm down on Leonard Fournette this year, and as a result am relatively high on White. For this to play out as expected, the rookie needs to have a strong camp. Yesterday, he took a big step forward. I'd be thrilled to draft him at his RB54 ADP.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs' backfield is a mess. I understand the hype surrounding Isiah Pacheco. Who wouldn't root for that guy? But it's more complicated than that. Kansas City is loaded with playmakers of varying skills and experience. And their backfield still has a lot more RBs than the team can feed. Until it thins out, Pacheco is a cool story with top 50-60 upside. Could he become another J.D. McKissic? Maybe. But more realistically, he could become a situational (i.e. 3-4 touches a game) contributor. Great for the Chiefs. Not helpful for fantasy managers. I'm urging folks to wait a week before annointing him as "draftable."
Finally, the Texans' backfield depth chart seems to be shaking out. Rookie Dameon Pierce has earned plenty of buzz, and yesterday he took care of business, while Marlon Mack struggled. I'm still wondering, though, if Houston will bring in a veteran before the season starts. Pierce never exceeded 123 touches in a college season. This category of running back typically hasn't earned much run in their careers. Tony Pollard is the only RB in this category (a high of 117 touches in college) in the last three years to make fantasy noise. The last weekly NFL starter in this category was 2006 draftee Kenyan Drake (high of 106 touches in college).
This doesn't make Pierce a fantasy bust. But he has to be a statistical anomaly. There are probably good reasons why most head coaches don't give 250 rookie carries to guys with Pierce's college workload. So keep this in mind before over-investing in him. If Mack falters, we might see Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, or another veteran joining the team to help mentor Pierce and limit his load. After all, Houston needs him more next year -- when they hope to be more competitive -- than they will this year.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/