As I go through players each day, I ask myself (usually in a deeper voice than my actual voice) how exited I'd be to draft them. Like, if I had to auto-draft (please no), and I ended up with Player A, would I think, "thank goodness." Or would I think, "I should've drafted my own team instead of taking a walk in those woods where I don't get cell reception."
These days, whenever I see Nick Chubb (RB10 ADP / overall 16), I kind of wince. Partly because last summer I was so high on him, and turned out to be more of a back-end RB1, and therefore kind of a disappointment. And partly because the Browns as a franchise are a mess. No offense to Browns fans. I have a soft spot for underdogs. But this is a fantasy page, Cleveland players' fantasy prospects are concerning.
Whether it's six games or 10 games or all season, Jacoby Brissett throwing to Amari Cooper & company will not inspire a lot of confidence. The offensive line is taking a beating. Kareem Hunt wants out. And the Browns' schedule is relatively unfriendly, at least from my perspective. While their first four games collectively are fairly generous (Panthers, Jets, Steelers, and Falcons), they'll probably need to start no worse than 3-1 to have any shot at a run at the postseason. Because then they'll face the Chargers, Patriots, Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, Bills, and Bucs. If you believe they'll go 3-4 or better in those contests, you're a lot more bullish than me.
Three of their next four games will be against the Bengals, Ravens, and Saints. If things break nearly perfectly, they could be 8-7 heading into the home stretch. But I don't think the Browns' current roster (minus Watson) is built to go 8-7 entering January. 5-10 seems more realistic. 4-11 if Brissett struggles early and they start 1-3 before their schedule turns brutal.
What would be the implications on their backfield? Probably not good. Among the seven teams that won less than seven games last season, only D'Andre Swift was a top-20 RB. The year before only three RBs on the nine worst teams finished in the top 20--and they caught 32, 49, and 59 passes, respectively.
This year, Chubb is vulnerable to a significant regression. As talented as he is (an incredible four straight seasons averaging at least 5.0 YPC), he's more volume- and TD-dependent than most starting RBs these days. If Hunt sticks around, we probably won't see Chubb catch more than one or 1.5 catches per game. His TD opportunities could dry up in a likely weaker offense (if Watson remains out), and one that finds itself playing from behind more than at any time in Chubb's career.
And then there's rookie Jerome Ford and the potentially reliable D'Ernest Johnson. At what point does Cleveland give them more run? Chubb is signed through 2024. If they're 5-10, are they really trotting out their #1 RB in meaningless January games? Or are they seeing what they have in Ford, and perhaps throwing Johnson out there with nothing to lose on an expiring contract?
If bad teams don't often produce top-20 fantasy RBs, and if Cleveland is as bad as I think they'll be, then I can't envision investing in Chubb anywhere close to his ADP. As always, looking forward to hearing your perspectives.
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These days, whenever I see Nick Chubb (RB10 ADP / overall 16), I kind of wince. Partly because last summer I was so high on him, and turned out to be more of a back-end RB1, and therefore kind of a disappointment. And partly because the Browns as a franchise are a mess. No offense to Browns fans. I have a soft spot for underdogs. But this is a fantasy page, Cleveland players' fantasy prospects are concerning.
Whether it's six games or 10 games or all season, Jacoby Brissett throwing to Amari Cooper & company will not inspire a lot of confidence. The offensive line is taking a beating. Kareem Hunt wants out. And the Browns' schedule is relatively unfriendly, at least from my perspective. While their first four games collectively are fairly generous (Panthers, Jets, Steelers, and Falcons), they'll probably need to start no worse than 3-1 to have any shot at a run at the postseason. Because then they'll face the Chargers, Patriots, Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, Bills, and Bucs. If you believe they'll go 3-4 or better in those contests, you're a lot more bullish than me.
Three of their next four games will be against the Bengals, Ravens, and Saints. If things break nearly perfectly, they could be 8-7 heading into the home stretch. But I don't think the Browns' current roster (minus Watson) is built to go 8-7 entering January. 5-10 seems more realistic. 4-11 if Brissett struggles early and they start 1-3 before their schedule turns brutal.
What would be the implications on their backfield? Probably not good. Among the seven teams that won less than seven games last season, only D'Andre Swift was a top-20 RB. The year before only three RBs on the nine worst teams finished in the top 20--and they caught 32, 49, and 59 passes, respectively.
This year, Chubb is vulnerable to a significant regression. As talented as he is (an incredible four straight seasons averaging at least 5.0 YPC), he's more volume- and TD-dependent than most starting RBs these days. If Hunt sticks around, we probably won't see Chubb catch more than one or 1.5 catches per game. His TD opportunities could dry up in a likely weaker offense (if Watson remains out), and one that finds itself playing from behind more than at any time in Chubb's career.
And then there's rookie Jerome Ford and the potentially reliable D'Ernest Johnson. At what point does Cleveland give them more run? Chubb is signed through 2024. If they're 5-10, are they really trotting out their #1 RB in meaningless January games? Or are they seeing what they have in Ford, and perhaps throwing Johnson out there with nothing to lose on an expiring contract?
If bad teams don't often produce top-20 fantasy RBs, and if Cleveland is as bad as I think they'll be, then I can't envision investing in Chubb anywhere close to his ADP. As always, looking forward to hearing your perspectives.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/