Some observations that might or might not be fantasy relevant. But they're forcing me to either move players around on my rankings, or *consider* moving players around on my rankings.
First, Michael Thomas is dealing with a hamstring injury. Might be nothing. Might be more than nothing. We might look back three months from now and realize he was never going to be anything close to the Thomas of old--that his first four NFL seasons might end up being his best four. I'm not giving up on him as a fantasy contributor. And I also can no longer view him as the Saints' #1 WR across 2022. Chris Olave is now my preferred Saints WR on draft day. Unless he proves otherwise, Thomas is the same boom-bust guy he's been the last two years.
Breece Hall played too much last night. I'm not ready to demote him. His upside is strong in an offense that should be better than last year's. But when I saw Hall out there in the third quarter, my only reaction was "wait 24 hours, and if nothing notable surfaces, drop him lower." Any questions about Hall's Week 1 role obviously would translate to a boost for Michael Carter. This will be an ongoing inner dialogue all season. Hall could take over at any time. For now, it's concerning that he played that deep into a game where most starters sat, and that he didn't even look good (one yard on four carries).
An arguably less notable rookie, Tyler Allgeier, also played too much, and didn't exactly light it up. On a sub-par offense in a backfield already occupied by Cordarrelle Patterson, Allgeier's ceiling is somewhere between 2021 Mike Davis and 2020 Todd Gurley. Yes, he could muster 8-10 fantasy points per game if things break nearly perfectly. And his sustained presence yesterday might be because he's a rookie who could use more reps. But Damien Williams or Qadree Ollison could step up. Or Atlanta could sign Devonta Freeman or Latavius Murray or someone else to help eat up yards. Last night reinforced that Allgeier brings flex upside and a painful floor.
Speaking of which, the Raiders reportedly are on the verge of cutting Kenyan Drake. Keep tabs on this, because Drake won't remain on the sidelines for long. Atlanta is one of a dozen or more teams that could use a veteran RB pass-catcher with bell-cow experience. I'm thinking about the Chiefs, Chargers, Bengals, Steelers, Texans, Titans, Giants, Seahawks, Bears, and Saints. Most of the teams on my list are strong playoff contenders, and a few are serious Super Bowl contenders. Imagining Drake complementing guys like Alvin Kamara or Najee Harris or Joe Mixon . . . It's not hard to envision how Drake could land on his feet as an immediate top-55 RB with strong upside.
And this raises a larger issue--whether a concern or an opportunity, depending on whether you've drafted and what's at stake in your fantasy universe. NFL teams will continue to make cuts in the coming days. Some of those cut players will wind up on other teams, (perhaps) elevating their fantasy value at the expense of others.
There are a lot of interesting scenarios. But the one that interests me most concerns backup RBs--particularly experienced RBs. Any team that signs a Drake or some other well-traveled running back is probably doing it for one of two reasons. Either they're looking for bench depth as a fall-back in case their top 2-3 guys get hurt, or they realize they can't trust their backups to step up if the starter goes down.
For example, if the Giants sign Drake, it could mean they're entirely comfortable with Jashaun Corbin and Matt Breida & company backing up Saquon Barkley. Drake would serve as a veteran presence and an insurance policy if the backfield gets crushed by injuries. Or . . . it could be a sign that the team lacks a true handcuff, and Drake is filling a gaping hole that might not have been visible before the signing.
We don't always know the reason when the signing happens. But sometimes we get an answer to the "why" before Week 1, and sometimes the answer comes early in the season, when the new signee out-snaps the rest of the backups. Whatever the answer, I'll share my thoughts on what each signing *could* mean, and as always, I hope you jump in and share your thoughts.
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First, Michael Thomas is dealing with a hamstring injury. Might be nothing. Might be more than nothing. We might look back three months from now and realize he was never going to be anything close to the Thomas of old--that his first four NFL seasons might end up being his best four. I'm not giving up on him as a fantasy contributor. And I also can no longer view him as the Saints' #1 WR across 2022. Chris Olave is now my preferred Saints WR on draft day. Unless he proves otherwise, Thomas is the same boom-bust guy he's been the last two years.
Breece Hall played too much last night. I'm not ready to demote him. His upside is strong in an offense that should be better than last year's. But when I saw Hall out there in the third quarter, my only reaction was "wait 24 hours, and if nothing notable surfaces, drop him lower." Any questions about Hall's Week 1 role obviously would translate to a boost for Michael Carter. This will be an ongoing inner dialogue all season. Hall could take over at any time. For now, it's concerning that he played that deep into a game where most starters sat, and that he didn't even look good (one yard on four carries).
An arguably less notable rookie, Tyler Allgeier, also played too much, and didn't exactly light it up. On a sub-par offense in a backfield already occupied by Cordarrelle Patterson, Allgeier's ceiling is somewhere between 2021 Mike Davis and 2020 Todd Gurley. Yes, he could muster 8-10 fantasy points per game if things break nearly perfectly. And his sustained presence yesterday might be because he's a rookie who could use more reps. But Damien Williams or Qadree Ollison could step up. Or Atlanta could sign Devonta Freeman or Latavius Murray or someone else to help eat up yards. Last night reinforced that Allgeier brings flex upside and a painful floor.
Speaking of which, the Raiders reportedly are on the verge of cutting Kenyan Drake. Keep tabs on this, because Drake won't remain on the sidelines for long. Atlanta is one of a dozen or more teams that could use a veteran RB pass-catcher with bell-cow experience. I'm thinking about the Chiefs, Chargers, Bengals, Steelers, Texans, Titans, Giants, Seahawks, Bears, and Saints. Most of the teams on my list are strong playoff contenders, and a few are serious Super Bowl contenders. Imagining Drake complementing guys like Alvin Kamara or Najee Harris or Joe Mixon . . . It's not hard to envision how Drake could land on his feet as an immediate top-55 RB with strong upside.
And this raises a larger issue--whether a concern or an opportunity, depending on whether you've drafted and what's at stake in your fantasy universe. NFL teams will continue to make cuts in the coming days. Some of those cut players will wind up on other teams, (perhaps) elevating their fantasy value at the expense of others.
There are a lot of interesting scenarios. But the one that interests me most concerns backup RBs--particularly experienced RBs. Any team that signs a Drake or some other well-traveled running back is probably doing it for one of two reasons. Either they're looking for bench depth as a fall-back in case their top 2-3 guys get hurt, or they realize they can't trust their backups to step up if the starter goes down.
For example, if the Giants sign Drake, it could mean they're entirely comfortable with Jashaun Corbin and Matt Breida & company backing up Saquon Barkley. Drake would serve as a veteran presence and an insurance policy if the backfield gets crushed by injuries. Or . . . it could be a sign that the team lacks a true handcuff, and Drake is filling a gaping hole that might not have been visible before the signing.
We don't always know the reason when the signing happens. But sometimes we get an answer to the "why" before Week 1, and sometimes the answer comes early in the season, when the new signee out-snaps the rest of the backups. Whatever the answer, I'll share my thoughts on what each signing *could* mean, and as always, I hope you jump in and share your thoughts.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/