With every NFL team getting their active rosters down to 53 players, there were several surprises yesterday. And some of them reminded me why it's risky to be a "true believer" or "true non-believer" about any player. Because conditions change. Risks change. And suddenly a fade becomes a bargain, or vice versa.
I didn't anticipate the Texans cutting Marlon Mack, though in hindsight it made sense. The franchise is undergoing an extensive rebuild. Mack turns 27 next March. He's somewhat one-dimensional, as he's not involved on special teams, and not much of a threat in the passing game. If Houston were a playoff contender, I think they would have kept him and dumped Royce Freeman or Dare Ogunbowale instead. But I think they'll be okay going 5-12 or 4-13 and loading up at next year's draft, when they'll get 11 picks--including two (likely pretty early) first rounders.
Mack's departure has to be a significant boost for Dameon Pierce. There's no more "1A" and "1B." It's Pierce-or-bust. Unless they go out and sign someone else. But I'm betting they're sticking with Pierce and three deep backups (yes, I don't think much of Rex Burkhead, and maybe that's a mistake). The rookie spiked in my rankings yesterday. He's now a great bet for 250+ touches. Will he score more than five times? It'll be tough in this offense, unless Davis Mills shows growth.
But if you're in a dynasty league, please consider my warning from last week. Pierce's college usage suggests a shorter-than-expected career. Only Kenyan Drake has defied expectations among drafted RBs from 2002 to 2017 who closely mirrored Pierce's workload.
Speaking of Drake, the Ravens' backfield hasn't been this chaotic since, well, last September. Rookie Tyler Badie is out--a huge shocker to me, though again, Baltimore obviously knows what it's doing. Badie was pretty abysmal this preseason. According to most sportsbooks, the Ravens are bigger favorites than the Bengals to win the AFC North, which surprises me. Still, for a team that plans to run more, they need four guys who can get it done. Badie apparently cannot, or at least not yet. Maybe he'll join the practice squad. Drake might still have enough left to serve as a third-down, passing-down back.
where does this leave Mike Davis? The same place he was when the Ravens signed him. Davis is 29 and has exceeded 3.9 YPC in only one season. His yards-after-contact plummeted last year. If J.K. Dobbins isn't ready Week 1, Baltimore can't afford to entrust Davis as the lead back. Speaking of which, Dobbins remains a question mark. Yikes. It's a messy situation that will get messier whenever Gus Edwards returns. The only Ravens I'm drafting ahead of their ADPs are Rashod Bateman and (in a very deep league) Isaiah Likely.
Elsewhere, the Raiders jettisoned Keelan Cole. Last month, I thought he'd bet out Demarcus Robinson for the #3 WR job. When Vegas dropped Robinson, I thought, "Well, this is it then." But it wasn't. Mack Hollins and a smattering of remaining talent will battle for scraps as the #5 or #6 offensive option. Hunter Renfrow is the biggest winner, I believe. Cole's only a season removed from a production 88-target campaign. With Darren Waller ailing (and overvalued), Renfrow could now push for 130 targets in a slightly more top-heavy passing attack.
Finally, Tennessee waiver QB Logan Woodside. Two months ago I wrote on this page that "A lot of smart people are saying Ryan Tannehill's job is safe. A notable reporter told me the other day that 'Willis ain't ready.'" I cautioned that "few rookie QBs are 'ready' in June," and that the biggest test would come in August. And if the Titans' brutal schedule undid Tannehill, the team probably wouldn't hesitate to insert the more dynamic Willis.
I get stuff right and get stuff wrong. We all do. But this is an important reminder about not pre-judging rookies based on how "raw" they seem. No one knew how Willis would perform alongside and against other professionals. But we did know this: the Titans' opponents include the Bills, Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos, Packers, Bengals, Eagles, Chargers, Cowboys, and Colts (twice). In June I felt fairly certain that, as assembled, Tennessee would be lucky to go 5-6 in those 11 games, and that the postseason was a longshot. Tannehill's contract includes a team out after this season.
So the issue for me was never about Willis in a vacuum. Whether he looked "great" or "good" or simply middling, Tennessee probably will have to make a decision by around Thanksgiving: keep rolling with Tannehill in the hopes they reach the playoffs, or cut bait and see what they have in Willis ahead of 2023. With the team cutting Woodside loose, we're another step closer to seeing Willis by December--if not sooner.
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I didn't anticipate the Texans cutting Marlon Mack, though in hindsight it made sense. The franchise is undergoing an extensive rebuild. Mack turns 27 next March. He's somewhat one-dimensional, as he's not involved on special teams, and not much of a threat in the passing game. If Houston were a playoff contender, I think they would have kept him and dumped Royce Freeman or Dare Ogunbowale instead. But I think they'll be okay going 5-12 or 4-13 and loading up at next year's draft, when they'll get 11 picks--including two (likely pretty early) first rounders.
Mack's departure has to be a significant boost for Dameon Pierce. There's no more "1A" and "1B." It's Pierce-or-bust. Unless they go out and sign someone else. But I'm betting they're sticking with Pierce and three deep backups (yes, I don't think much of Rex Burkhead, and maybe that's a mistake). The rookie spiked in my rankings yesterday. He's now a great bet for 250+ touches. Will he score more than five times? It'll be tough in this offense, unless Davis Mills shows growth.
But if you're in a dynasty league, please consider my warning from last week. Pierce's college usage suggests a shorter-than-expected career. Only Kenyan Drake has defied expectations among drafted RBs from 2002 to 2017 who closely mirrored Pierce's workload.
Speaking of Drake, the Ravens' backfield hasn't been this chaotic since, well, last September. Rookie Tyler Badie is out--a huge shocker to me, though again, Baltimore obviously knows what it's doing. Badie was pretty abysmal this preseason. According to most sportsbooks, the Ravens are bigger favorites than the Bengals to win the AFC North, which surprises me. Still, for a team that plans to run more, they need four guys who can get it done. Badie apparently cannot, or at least not yet. Maybe he'll join the practice squad. Drake might still have enough left to serve as a third-down, passing-down back.
where does this leave Mike Davis? The same place he was when the Ravens signed him. Davis is 29 and has exceeded 3.9 YPC in only one season. His yards-after-contact plummeted last year. If J.K. Dobbins isn't ready Week 1, Baltimore can't afford to entrust Davis as the lead back. Speaking of which, Dobbins remains a question mark. Yikes. It's a messy situation that will get messier whenever Gus Edwards returns. The only Ravens I'm drafting ahead of their ADPs are Rashod Bateman and (in a very deep league) Isaiah Likely.
Elsewhere, the Raiders jettisoned Keelan Cole. Last month, I thought he'd bet out Demarcus Robinson for the #3 WR job. When Vegas dropped Robinson, I thought, "Well, this is it then." But it wasn't. Mack Hollins and a smattering of remaining talent will battle for scraps as the #5 or #6 offensive option. Hunter Renfrow is the biggest winner, I believe. Cole's only a season removed from a production 88-target campaign. With Darren Waller ailing (and overvalued), Renfrow could now push for 130 targets in a slightly more top-heavy passing attack.
Finally, Tennessee waiver QB Logan Woodside. Two months ago I wrote on this page that "A lot of smart people are saying Ryan Tannehill's job is safe. A notable reporter told me the other day that 'Willis ain't ready.'" I cautioned that "few rookie QBs are 'ready' in June," and that the biggest test would come in August. And if the Titans' brutal schedule undid Tannehill, the team probably wouldn't hesitate to insert the more dynamic Willis.
I get stuff right and get stuff wrong. We all do. But this is an important reminder about not pre-judging rookies based on how "raw" they seem. No one knew how Willis would perform alongside and against other professionals. But we did know this: the Titans' opponents include the Bills, Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos, Packers, Bengals, Eagles, Chargers, Cowboys, and Colts (twice). In June I felt fairly certain that, as assembled, Tennessee would be lucky to go 5-6 in those 11 games, and that the postseason was a longshot. Tannehill's contract includes a team out after this season.
So the issue for me was never about Willis in a vacuum. Whether he looked "great" or "good" or simply middling, Tennessee probably will have to make a decision by around Thanksgiving: keep rolling with Tannehill in the hopes they reach the playoffs, or cut bait and see what they have in Willis ahead of 2023. With the team cutting Woodside loose, we're another step closer to seeing Willis by December--if not sooner.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or Rankings + 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/