Some interesting fantasy-relevant stories coming out of yesterday's four preseason games. Some of it pretty obvious, but I'll try to push past the obvious toward how it all might impact fantasy values.
Sam Darnold appears to have suffered a high-ankle sprain. Any extended absence would give Baker Mayfield all the cushion he needs to get through the first half of the season, and possibly beyond. P.J. Walker arguably is a downgrade compared to Darnold. And of course, if the often-injury Mayfield got hurt early, it would mean a more significant downgrade to D.J. Moore and others if Walker stepped in vs. Darnold.
Matt Barkley outplayed Case Keenum. Doesn't seem that important. But Barkley is turning 33 next week and has never been a reliable arm. Keenum was signed to help replace the loss of Mitch Trubisky--an experienced insurance policy if Josh Allen were forced to miss time. While Keenum wouldn't come close to Allen's ceiling, or perhaps even his floor, the veteran would help steady the ship. Instead, he's been outplayed pretty dramatically by Barkley in two of three games. If Barkley somehow takes over back-up duties, it would be a small net-negative for all Bills playmakers, in the event Allen would ever have to sit.
If you somehow have Mark Ingram in a dynasty league, today's a great day to unload him. The two touchdowns were nice. They also aren't indicative of how I think Ingram will perform this year. He'll be 33 in December and is coming off the lowest YPC season of his career. The team added rookie Abram Smith for a reason. Tony Jones looms. Now, I've still got Ingram as the "handcuff," because that's still the plan. But only because Smith and Jones haven't stepped up. I wouldn't be shocked of the team eventually reunites with Latavius Murray or adds a different veteran, if they believe Jones and Smith are not the answers.
With Isaiah Spiller still ailing, Joshua Kelley looked terrific last night. I had very high hopes for Spiller after the Chargers drafted him, and I was not correct. Kelley could push for as many as 150 touches, and if you think that sounds insane, he had 134 in 2020. An *improved* Kelley would be a top-45 RB contender in this offense. So much comes down to whether Spiller can make headway in-season. For now, Kelley remains a big bargain (compared to his ADP) on my draft board.
Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden joined Josh Jacobs on the Las Vegas sidelines, while Zamir White continued his march to fantasy relevance. I shocked my colleagues earlier this week during a Discord discussion about Josh Jacobs, when I pointed out that White's been ahead of Jacobs on my draft board for over a week. Then a few days later, a beat reporter suggested the Raiders' backfield would be an RBBC. Now, who knows if that'll happen. But I like what White brings to this offense, and Abdullah and Bolden can't carry much of the load. So it comes down to White vs. Jacobs as the 1A, and with Jacobs on his way out after this season, I strongly believe White's reps will increase as the season progresses, and he'll eventually be the lead guy. As always, we'll see what happens.
Mac Jones led four drives, which was one more than I realistically thought he would. Concerns we've heard out of camp have translated on the preseason field. He simply hasn't looked good, and his interception last night was objectively horrendous, staring down a receiver about 15 yards away and then eventually throwing it, with four Raiders defenders crowded around. He could have scampered for a first down, and he also had a guy breaking to his right wide open. All easy for me to talk about from my couch. But . . . those are the types of plays a franchise QB playing in a meaningless late-preseason game shouldn't be making. He was out there *because* he's still making those mistakes. I don't see an obvious scenario where a Patriots WR finishes in the top 50.
Brett Maher is one of several reasons why drafting a kicker before the final round is not ideal. Yes, I want Evan McPherson. But the much cheaper Brandon McManus could be comparable. So could Dustin Hopkins. In fact, any AFC West kicker sounds pretty good to me. As for Maher, he's made multiple kicks from 60+ yards in his career and has attempted a couple this preseason. In fact, when he last kicked for Dallas in 2018 and 2019, he connected on 10 of 15 from 50+. The Cowboys clearly trust him enough to give him those opportunities. If you're in a league that rewards more points for longer kicks, Maher's a strong candidate for about 160+.
Finally, Drew Lock. Talk about a squandered opportunity. He narrowly outperformed Geno Smith in their first preseason contest. When he was sidelined last week, Geno didn't do much to help his cause. Last night, Geno was again unremarkable in a brief stint. Lock had more than a half to earn the Week 1 starting nod. Instead, he justified why I've kept D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett so low on my draft board. I've looked forward to a reason to move them up. But Smith and Lock look like 2021 Teddy Bridgewater and Lock all over again. I'd continue to leave Metcalf and Lockett for your opponents.
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Sam Darnold appears to have suffered a high-ankle sprain. Any extended absence would give Baker Mayfield all the cushion he needs to get through the first half of the season, and possibly beyond. P.J. Walker arguably is a downgrade compared to Darnold. And of course, if the often-injury Mayfield got hurt early, it would mean a more significant downgrade to D.J. Moore and others if Walker stepped in vs. Darnold.
Matt Barkley outplayed Case Keenum. Doesn't seem that important. But Barkley is turning 33 next week and has never been a reliable arm. Keenum was signed to help replace the loss of Mitch Trubisky--an experienced insurance policy if Josh Allen were forced to miss time. While Keenum wouldn't come close to Allen's ceiling, or perhaps even his floor, the veteran would help steady the ship. Instead, he's been outplayed pretty dramatically by Barkley in two of three games. If Barkley somehow takes over back-up duties, it would be a small net-negative for all Bills playmakers, in the event Allen would ever have to sit.
If you somehow have Mark Ingram in a dynasty league, today's a great day to unload him. The two touchdowns were nice. They also aren't indicative of how I think Ingram will perform this year. He'll be 33 in December and is coming off the lowest YPC season of his career. The team added rookie Abram Smith for a reason. Tony Jones looms. Now, I've still got Ingram as the "handcuff," because that's still the plan. But only because Smith and Jones haven't stepped up. I wouldn't be shocked of the team eventually reunites with Latavius Murray or adds a different veteran, if they believe Jones and Smith are not the answers.
With Isaiah Spiller still ailing, Joshua Kelley looked terrific last night. I had very high hopes for Spiller after the Chargers drafted him, and I was not correct. Kelley could push for as many as 150 touches, and if you think that sounds insane, he had 134 in 2020. An *improved* Kelley would be a top-45 RB contender in this offense. So much comes down to whether Spiller can make headway in-season. For now, Kelley remains a big bargain (compared to his ADP) on my draft board.
Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden joined Josh Jacobs on the Las Vegas sidelines, while Zamir White continued his march to fantasy relevance. I shocked my colleagues earlier this week during a Discord discussion about Josh Jacobs, when I pointed out that White's been ahead of Jacobs on my draft board for over a week. Then a few days later, a beat reporter suggested the Raiders' backfield would be an RBBC. Now, who knows if that'll happen. But I like what White brings to this offense, and Abdullah and Bolden can't carry much of the load. So it comes down to White vs. Jacobs as the 1A, and with Jacobs on his way out after this season, I strongly believe White's reps will increase as the season progresses, and he'll eventually be the lead guy. As always, we'll see what happens.
Mac Jones led four drives, which was one more than I realistically thought he would. Concerns we've heard out of camp have translated on the preseason field. He simply hasn't looked good, and his interception last night was objectively horrendous, staring down a receiver about 15 yards away and then eventually throwing it, with four Raiders defenders crowded around. He could have scampered for a first down, and he also had a guy breaking to his right wide open. All easy for me to talk about from my couch. But . . . those are the types of plays a franchise QB playing in a meaningless late-preseason game shouldn't be making. He was out there *because* he's still making those mistakes. I don't see an obvious scenario where a Patriots WR finishes in the top 50.
Brett Maher is one of several reasons why drafting a kicker before the final round is not ideal. Yes, I want Evan McPherson. But the much cheaper Brandon McManus could be comparable. So could Dustin Hopkins. In fact, any AFC West kicker sounds pretty good to me. As for Maher, he's made multiple kicks from 60+ yards in his career and has attempted a couple this preseason. In fact, when he last kicked for Dallas in 2018 and 2019, he connected on 10 of 15 from 50+. The Cowboys clearly trust him enough to give him those opportunities. If you're in a league that rewards more points for longer kicks, Maher's a strong candidate for about 160+.
Finally, Drew Lock. Talk about a squandered opportunity. He narrowly outperformed Geno Smith in their first preseason contest. When he was sidelined last week, Geno didn't do much to help his cause. Last night, Geno was again unremarkable in a brief stint. Lock had more than a half to earn the Week 1 starting nod. Instead, he justified why I've kept D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett so low on my draft board. I've looked forward to a reason to move them up. But Smith and Lock look like 2021 Teddy Bridgewater and Lock all over again. I'd continue to leave Metcalf and Lockett for your opponents.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/