Who's a player you're 100% avoiding in fantasy drafts? As in, he falls in your lap three rounds later than his ADP, and you're still passing.
Was thinking about this yesterday when the Dolphins cut Sony Michel. It surprised me, maybe too much. Figured he brought championship pedigree to a perennial underachieving franchise. Myles Gaskin isn't the answer, and the aged Raheem Mostert can't stay healthy. Michel seemed like a cheap insurance policy.
And yet, as the summer went on, I had less and less interest in drafting him. His RB ADP has been in the 60's for most of the summer. In some deeper leagues, he was worth a flier as Chase Edmonds' likely handcuff. But he would have been mostly TD-dependent. Even if Edmonds got hurt, there was no guarantee that Michel's role would increase. Eno Benjamin, Kyren Williams, and even Trey Sermon seemed like better investments.
The same is true for Patriots' WRs. Is anyone here excited to draft DeVante Parker or Jakobi Meyers? Will we start the season with Nelson Agholor available in 99% of leagues? Is Tyquan Thornton more interesting on the field (when healthy) than in fantasy? Surely someone on that team will be a top-50 WR. But in the absence of a clear frontrunner, why take a chance on a low-ceiling receiver?
I'm talking about what it feels like to be in the draft room, and it's your turn, and a player who *should* have been drafted several rounds ago is still hanging around. Do you take him because at this point he seems to be a steal? If Miles Sanders falls to the eighth round, and then the ninth, and then the 10th, do you say, "Sure, why not"? Or is the thought of starting him too much of a deterrent? Is it easier to just keep avoiding him and focus on guys you're more excited about?
And there have been a lot of guys over the year I haven't been excited about and consciously passed on -- and then they went bonkers. Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in their successive breakout campaigns. Joe Burrow last year. So this isn't me saying there's some objective truth about players to avoid.
I'm interested in hearing which player or players you're hoping don't fall into your lap. You don't want to *have* to get them. You want an opponent to save you the trouble of making what could be a tough decision to pass. For me, the Patriots receivers definitely fit in that group. Among top-100 ADP players, Sanders is also on my "hopefully-I-won't-have-to-draft-them" list. So are Rashaad Penny and Amari Cooper. A little further down, I'm hoping I don't resignedly draft Allen Lazard or Marquez Valdes-Scantling. These are all guys who could meet/exceed expectations, and they could also be disastrously bad. And I don't want to draft someone I might be itching to drop by Week 3.
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Was thinking about this yesterday when the Dolphins cut Sony Michel. It surprised me, maybe too much. Figured he brought championship pedigree to a perennial underachieving franchise. Myles Gaskin isn't the answer, and the aged Raheem Mostert can't stay healthy. Michel seemed like a cheap insurance policy.
And yet, as the summer went on, I had less and less interest in drafting him. His RB ADP has been in the 60's for most of the summer. In some deeper leagues, he was worth a flier as Chase Edmonds' likely handcuff. But he would have been mostly TD-dependent. Even if Edmonds got hurt, there was no guarantee that Michel's role would increase. Eno Benjamin, Kyren Williams, and even Trey Sermon seemed like better investments.
The same is true for Patriots' WRs. Is anyone here excited to draft DeVante Parker or Jakobi Meyers? Will we start the season with Nelson Agholor available in 99% of leagues? Is Tyquan Thornton more interesting on the field (when healthy) than in fantasy? Surely someone on that team will be a top-50 WR. But in the absence of a clear frontrunner, why take a chance on a low-ceiling receiver?
I'm talking about what it feels like to be in the draft room, and it's your turn, and a player who *should* have been drafted several rounds ago is still hanging around. Do you take him because at this point he seems to be a steal? If Miles Sanders falls to the eighth round, and then the ninth, and then the 10th, do you say, "Sure, why not"? Or is the thought of starting him too much of a deterrent? Is it easier to just keep avoiding him and focus on guys you're more excited about?
And there have been a lot of guys over the year I haven't been excited about and consciously passed on -- and then they went bonkers. Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in their successive breakout campaigns. Joe Burrow last year. So this isn't me saying there's some objective truth about players to avoid.
I'm interested in hearing which player or players you're hoping don't fall into your lap. You don't want to *have* to get them. You want an opponent to save you the trouble of making what could be a tough decision to pass. For me, the Patriots receivers definitely fit in that group. Among top-100 ADP players, Sanders is also on my "hopefully-I-won't-have-to-draft-them" list. So are Rashaad Penny and Amari Cooper. A little further down, I'm hoping I don't resignedly draft Allen Lazard or Marquez Valdes-Scantling. These are all guys who could meet/exceed expectations, and they could also be disastrously bad. And I don't want to draft someone I might be itching to drop by Week 3.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/