When was the last time you were excited about drafting Miles Sanders? I remember him falling in the PFFL draft last September well below his RB20 ADP, feeling like I should get him, and then letting him pass by. He ended up being the RB41 in fantasy points per game with 9.8.
But he's delivered on the field and in other fantasy seasons. In 2020 he was the RB20 in points per game. He was the RB22 as a rookie in 2019. Maybe "delivered" is a strong word. While he has an impressive 5.1 career YPC, his per-game targets and receptions have dropped each season. He was held out of the end zone all of last year.
So if we didn't play fantasy and simply watched football to enjoy football (novel concept), we might appreciate his 13-14 touches per contest a lot more. "Hey [insert daughter's/son's name], Sanders is a great football player." "Yes [Mom/Dad], he sure is." And so on.
Sanders' headwinds were already fierce coming into this season--his fourth and possibly last in Philly. Kenneth Gainwell has been one of my favorite non-starting-RB targets, Boston Scott is one of the more capable #3's, and Jalen Hurts probably will lead everyone in rushing regardless. Sanders' mostly unchanging RB27 ADP has seemed ambitious, and lately it's seemed downright improbable.
And now head coach Nick Sirianni is refraining from saying whether Sanders will be ready for Week 1. The team's supposed starting RB has been slowed by a hamstring injury. If Gainwell starts Week 1, it could be game over for Sanders as a top-40 RB this season. Gainwell caught 51 passes in his final collegiate campaign while earning over 200 carries. He's bell-cow ready. And if needed, so is Scott.
Some might make a strong/valid case that Sanders looked better than ever in his return from injury last season. But I have to go back to my college RB research from earlier this month, which I shared (a little bit of) a couple weeks ago. Based on his college usage, his NFL career has been likely to end prematurely. That might sound harsh. But let's look briefly at all of the RBs drafted the past 20 years who (a) had 200+ touches in a college season, where (b) that season accounted for at least 70% of their total college touches. In other words, we're looking for RBs that had one large workload and not much else. How did they far in the NFL?
13 RBs are in this category. They include, in chronological order: Willis McGahee (first-round pick), Adimchinobe Echemandu (seventh), Ciatrick Fason (fourth), Maurice Clarett (third), Shonn Greene (third), Steven Ridley (third), Ryan Williams (second), Michael Cox (seventh), Lorenzo Taliaferro (fourth), D'Onta Foreman (third), Rodney Anderson (sixth), Sanders (second), and yes, Gainwell (fourth).
McGahee clearly stands out with his 1,571 career fantasy points. He is the outlier. Echemandu, Fason, Clarett, Williams, Cox, Taliaferro, and Anderson averaged 25 career fantasy points apiece. 83% of Greene's career touches occurred in his first four seasons. The same was true for 87% of Ridley's touches. And we all know Foreman's story, as injuries nearly ended his career before last season's comeback.
Running backs by definition are not generally durable. But that's a long list of early-round picks who never panned out, or else regressed rapidly during or right after Year 4.
If this trend is legitimate (and I believe there's something to it), then Sanders' recent durability issues should not be viewed in a vacuum. He's already approach 600 career touches. By this stage, Ridley was pretty much finished. Greene had one high-volume, inefficient campaign remaining. No one else was still playing, except the one major exception, McGahee.
I'm down on Sanders this season for many reasons. And I believe this data brings more to the table than simply "he's injury-prone" or "Gainwell could challenge him." Sanders would have to pull a McGahee to remain fantasy-relevant after this season. And based on pure percentages, he's already facing an uphill battle to defy the odds this season.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/
But he's delivered on the field and in other fantasy seasons. In 2020 he was the RB20 in points per game. He was the RB22 as a rookie in 2019. Maybe "delivered" is a strong word. While he has an impressive 5.1 career YPC, his per-game targets and receptions have dropped each season. He was held out of the end zone all of last year.
So if we didn't play fantasy and simply watched football to enjoy football (novel concept), we might appreciate his 13-14 touches per contest a lot more. "Hey [insert daughter's/son's name], Sanders is a great football player." "Yes [Mom/Dad], he sure is." And so on.
Sanders' headwinds were already fierce coming into this season--his fourth and possibly last in Philly. Kenneth Gainwell has been one of my favorite non-starting-RB targets, Boston Scott is one of the more capable #3's, and Jalen Hurts probably will lead everyone in rushing regardless. Sanders' mostly unchanging RB27 ADP has seemed ambitious, and lately it's seemed downright improbable.
And now head coach Nick Sirianni is refraining from saying whether Sanders will be ready for Week 1. The team's supposed starting RB has been slowed by a hamstring injury. If Gainwell starts Week 1, it could be game over for Sanders as a top-40 RB this season. Gainwell caught 51 passes in his final collegiate campaign while earning over 200 carries. He's bell-cow ready. And if needed, so is Scott.
Some might make a strong/valid case that Sanders looked better than ever in his return from injury last season. But I have to go back to my college RB research from earlier this month, which I shared (a little bit of) a couple weeks ago. Based on his college usage, his NFL career has been likely to end prematurely. That might sound harsh. But let's look briefly at all of the RBs drafted the past 20 years who (a) had 200+ touches in a college season, where (b) that season accounted for at least 70% of their total college touches. In other words, we're looking for RBs that had one large workload and not much else. How did they far in the NFL?
13 RBs are in this category. They include, in chronological order: Willis McGahee (first-round pick), Adimchinobe Echemandu (seventh), Ciatrick Fason (fourth), Maurice Clarett (third), Shonn Greene (third), Steven Ridley (third), Ryan Williams (second), Michael Cox (seventh), Lorenzo Taliaferro (fourth), D'Onta Foreman (third), Rodney Anderson (sixth), Sanders (second), and yes, Gainwell (fourth).
McGahee clearly stands out with his 1,571 career fantasy points. He is the outlier. Echemandu, Fason, Clarett, Williams, Cox, Taliaferro, and Anderson averaged 25 career fantasy points apiece. 83% of Greene's career touches occurred in his first four seasons. The same was true for 87% of Ridley's touches. And we all know Foreman's story, as injuries nearly ended his career before last season's comeback.
Running backs by definition are not generally durable. But that's a long list of early-round picks who never panned out, or else regressed rapidly during or right after Year 4.
If this trend is legitimate (and I believe there's something to it), then Sanders' recent durability issues should not be viewed in a vacuum. He's already approach 600 career touches. By this stage, Ridley was pretty much finished. Greene had one high-volume, inefficient campaign remaining. No one else was still playing, except the one major exception, McGahee.
I'm down on Sanders this season for many reasons. And I believe this data brings more to the table than simply "he's injury-prone" or "Gainwell could challenge him." Sanders would have to pull a McGahee to remain fantasy-relevant after this season. And based on pure percentages, he's already facing an uphill battle to defy the odds this season.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/