Suppose you really like the WR52. As in, you think he's going to be top-30. So he *should* be drafted no later than roughly the sixth round in 12-team PPR leagues. But because of his low ADP, he's coming off the board in mock drafts in rounds 11 or 12.
When is the ideal time to draft this guy?
That's a question I've been trying to answer for years. And of course, there is no one-size-fits-all answer. But every year I try to produce the most accurate and actionable rankings I can. "Accurate" is based on a lot of research. But "actionable" is harder to pin down, especially when a challenge has no definitive solution.
When is the ideal time to draft an undervalued target? There are so many variables, including how desperate we are to fill that position, how desperate our opponents are, whether anyone in the league is predisposed to targeting that same player (like a Colts fan reaching a few rounds early for Parris Campbell or Alec Pierce), and so on.
I've used the Hayden Hurst example before, because yeah, I'm going to target him in the PFFL draft. Apparently so is my 2021 finals opponent, Johnny Green, because he said so the other day on this page. (Fair game, Johnny. Fair game.) Based on ADP, Hurst is going off the board in the 16th/17th rounds. If Dalton Schultz falls into my lap in the fifth round (he's another big undervalued TE target), then I'll have little need to reach for Hurst, even in the relatively deep PFFL. But if I miss Schultz, do I reach for Hurst in the 13th? Is that too late? Will Johnny or someone else be picking in the 11th round, deciding between Tyler Boyd and J.D. McKissic, and then think, "Why don't I just lock in my favorite underrated TE now?"
So this is a question without a concrete answer. Some or many or most of you can relate. We essentially feel it out. The deeper the bargain, the longer we can usually wait. At the same time, many managers know the feeling of waiting one round too long. It's like being an 1848 gold prospector, and someone randomly walking by a stream where you're working and picking up a gold nugget the size of a fist. And they think it's just a pretty rock. You know it's priceless. You were going to move upstream shortly. But then you got a call from an old college friend (I realize this is no longer 1848, but bear with me), and he keeps yammering about something unimportant, and his stories are awful. But there was that one time he did something really cool for you, and you can't just abandon him. So you keep taking his calls, tensing up every time you flip open your phone (I realize this is no longer modern day, but bear with me). And he's in the middle of that same story about the stray cat meowing outside his window at 3:00am. And you wish he'd finally move away so you can find a new roommate.
Anyway . . . When we wait too long, it cuts both ways. We know what we've missed, and how easy it would've been to strike gold. And we know it's only a matter of time before our opponent reaps the benefits.
If you have a story about mis-timing a deeply undervalued player, I'd love to hear it below. And if you have a story about timing it perfectly, please share.
All I can say is that yesterday I spent hours on my Top 400 rankings spreadsheet, trying to develop some kind of system for identifying the sweet spot for drafting each player. PFN Pass and TD Pass subscribers can now see it in Column C: "12-Team Target Round." It's all automated. So Zamir White has a 192 ADP (at least, as of Thursday night). That's roughly the 15th/16th round. But on these rankings, he's my 86th-ranked player, which is the 7th/8th round. The way I've coded it, narrow bargains should still be targeted at around where I've ranked them. In other words, don't get cute with players ranked a round later. But someone like White can be drafted several rounds later. There's a sweet spot between what I think he's worth, and what the market thinks he's worth. And I've tried (surely not close to perfectly, but it's a start) to zero in on that sweet spot.
And by the way, I'm using White as an example because, as I shared the other day, his ADP is going to pop. So if he moves up to a 10th-round ADP by Sunday, my Top 400 rankings automatically will adjust his target round to the 8th or 9th--still ahead of the crowd (hopefully), while also not over-reaching.
As always, the goal is to draft smarter, and for some of us, it's about having tools to help us draft smarter.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/
When is the ideal time to draft this guy?
That's a question I've been trying to answer for years. And of course, there is no one-size-fits-all answer. But every year I try to produce the most accurate and actionable rankings I can. "Accurate" is based on a lot of research. But "actionable" is harder to pin down, especially when a challenge has no definitive solution.
When is the ideal time to draft an undervalued target? There are so many variables, including how desperate we are to fill that position, how desperate our opponents are, whether anyone in the league is predisposed to targeting that same player (like a Colts fan reaching a few rounds early for Parris Campbell or Alec Pierce), and so on.
I've used the Hayden Hurst example before, because yeah, I'm going to target him in the PFFL draft. Apparently so is my 2021 finals opponent, Johnny Green, because he said so the other day on this page. (Fair game, Johnny. Fair game.) Based on ADP, Hurst is going off the board in the 16th/17th rounds. If Dalton Schultz falls into my lap in the fifth round (he's another big undervalued TE target), then I'll have little need to reach for Hurst, even in the relatively deep PFFL. But if I miss Schultz, do I reach for Hurst in the 13th? Is that too late? Will Johnny or someone else be picking in the 11th round, deciding between Tyler Boyd and J.D. McKissic, and then think, "Why don't I just lock in my favorite underrated TE now?"
So this is a question without a concrete answer. Some or many or most of you can relate. We essentially feel it out. The deeper the bargain, the longer we can usually wait. At the same time, many managers know the feeling of waiting one round too long. It's like being an 1848 gold prospector, and someone randomly walking by a stream where you're working and picking up a gold nugget the size of a fist. And they think it's just a pretty rock. You know it's priceless. You were going to move upstream shortly. But then you got a call from an old college friend (I realize this is no longer 1848, but bear with me), and he keeps yammering about something unimportant, and his stories are awful. But there was that one time he did something really cool for you, and you can't just abandon him. So you keep taking his calls, tensing up every time you flip open your phone (I realize this is no longer modern day, but bear with me). And he's in the middle of that same story about the stray cat meowing outside his window at 3:00am. And you wish he'd finally move away so you can find a new roommate.
Anyway . . . When we wait too long, it cuts both ways. We know what we've missed, and how easy it would've been to strike gold. And we know it's only a matter of time before our opponent reaps the benefits.
If you have a story about mis-timing a deeply undervalued player, I'd love to hear it below. And if you have a story about timing it perfectly, please share.
All I can say is that yesterday I spent hours on my Top 400 rankings spreadsheet, trying to develop some kind of system for identifying the sweet spot for drafting each player. PFN Pass and TD Pass subscribers can now see it in Column C: "12-Team Target Round." It's all automated. So Zamir White has a 192 ADP (at least, as of Thursday night). That's roughly the 15th/16th round. But on these rankings, he's my 86th-ranked player, which is the 7th/8th round. The way I've coded it, narrow bargains should still be targeted at around where I've ranked them. In other words, don't get cute with players ranked a round later. But someone like White can be drafted several rounds later. There's a sweet spot between what I think he's worth, and what the market thinks he's worth. And I've tried (surely not close to perfectly, but it's a start) to zero in on that sweet spot.
And by the way, I'm using White as an example because, as I shared the other day, his ADP is going to pop. So if he moves up to a 10th-round ADP by Sunday, my Top 400 rankings automatically will adjust his target round to the 8th or 9th--still ahead of the crowd (hopefully), while also not over-reaching.
As always, the goal is to draft smarter, and for some of us, it's about having tools to help us draft smarter.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/