The Dolphins have two prime / pre-prime receivers in the top 15 in WR ADP: Tyreek Hill (WR8) and Jaylen Waddle (WR15). They have a #3 receiver (Cedrick Wilson) with two 100+ yard outings in his last five contests. Mike Gesicki has been a top-12 fantasy TE three straight seasons, including top 8 in each of the last two years. And the team's top four RBs can all catch the ball, led by Chase Edmonds (93 receptions in his last 28 games).
And yet, Tua Tagovailoa has a QB16 ADP.
Look, I'm not bold enough to push him into the top 10, even though I really want to. Not because I *want* to do anything that doesn't make sense. But because he could easily be a top-5 fantasy QB this season, and I don't use the word "easily" loosely. The challenge, as always, is which QBs he should leapfrog. As of this morning, he's my QB13 and ranked 88th overall (compared to an overall 123 ADP). He's getting drafted in the 10th-11th rounds in typical 12-team leagues. I'm advising subscribers to reach for him beginning in round 9. In other words, he's a bargain.
But how much of a bargain? Because teams with two weekly must-start fantasy WRs, a fringe must-start TE, a solid #3 with upside, and a multi-facted backfield generally have a weekly-fantasy-startable QB. Consider Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow last year. Consider Russell Wilson in 2020, or even Dak Prescott in 2019.
2019 Dak is actually an interesting parallel. Zeke Elliott and rookie Tony Pollard combined for 69 catches that year, while Jason Witten was the TE11. His three top wideouts were Amari Cooper (WR10), Michael Gallup (WR22), and Randall Cobb (WR44). Dak rushed for 277 yards and three scores--solid, but not beyond the realm of possibility for Tua, who had 128 yards and three TDs in 13 games last year.
Do we believe Hill and Waddle can go toe-to-toe with the 2019 versions of Cooper and Gallup? The fantasy market seems to think so. Do we think Gesicki can be at least the TE11? Again, look at ADP. Do we think Wilson could push for top-50 production like Cobb did? A bit bullish, and also achieveable if things break right. And could Miami's backfield combine for about 70 catches? Of course. Miami and 25 other teams had 96 or more RB targets last year, and two of last year's 13 highest-reception RBs are on their roster.
Dak was the overall QB2 in 2019.
If fantasy were my life (believe it or not, it isn't), this kind of stuff would keep me up at night. Instead, it keeps me occupied during the day. On the one hand, Tua seems insanely undervalued at the QB16 spot. On the other hand, he hasn't yet delivered on that potential. We've seen what those top-12 QBs can do. So what story will we tell about Tua after this season? Will we look back and say, "Of course he was going to dominate with that roster." Or will we say, "This is why the Dolphins need a franchise QB."
As always, there are no objectively right answers. Only opinions. And my opinion is that Tua's likely range of outcomes puts his floor at his QB16 ADP and his ceiling at around the top 6-8. I'm trying to figure out if I can push him to 11 or 10. In the meantime, I feel comfortable knowing he's a bargain and punting the "how much" question until we get closer to Week 1.
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And yet, Tua Tagovailoa has a QB16 ADP.
Look, I'm not bold enough to push him into the top 10, even though I really want to. Not because I *want* to do anything that doesn't make sense. But because he could easily be a top-5 fantasy QB this season, and I don't use the word "easily" loosely. The challenge, as always, is which QBs he should leapfrog. As of this morning, he's my QB13 and ranked 88th overall (compared to an overall 123 ADP). He's getting drafted in the 10th-11th rounds in typical 12-team leagues. I'm advising subscribers to reach for him beginning in round 9. In other words, he's a bargain.
But how much of a bargain? Because teams with two weekly must-start fantasy WRs, a fringe must-start TE, a solid #3 with upside, and a multi-facted backfield generally have a weekly-fantasy-startable QB. Consider Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow last year. Consider Russell Wilson in 2020, or even Dak Prescott in 2019.
2019 Dak is actually an interesting parallel. Zeke Elliott and rookie Tony Pollard combined for 69 catches that year, while Jason Witten was the TE11. His three top wideouts were Amari Cooper (WR10), Michael Gallup (WR22), and Randall Cobb (WR44). Dak rushed for 277 yards and three scores--solid, but not beyond the realm of possibility for Tua, who had 128 yards and three TDs in 13 games last year.
Do we believe Hill and Waddle can go toe-to-toe with the 2019 versions of Cooper and Gallup? The fantasy market seems to think so. Do we think Gesicki can be at least the TE11? Again, look at ADP. Do we think Wilson could push for top-50 production like Cobb did? A bit bullish, and also achieveable if things break right. And could Miami's backfield combine for about 70 catches? Of course. Miami and 25 other teams had 96 or more RB targets last year, and two of last year's 13 highest-reception RBs are on their roster.
Dak was the overall QB2 in 2019.
If fantasy were my life (believe it or not, it isn't), this kind of stuff would keep me up at night. Instead, it keeps me occupied during the day. On the one hand, Tua seems insanely undervalued at the QB16 spot. On the other hand, he hasn't yet delivered on that potential. We've seen what those top-12 QBs can do. So what story will we tell about Tua after this season? Will we look back and say, "Of course he was going to dominate with that roster." Or will we say, "This is why the Dolphins need a franchise QB."
As always, there are no objectively right answers. Only opinions. And my opinion is that Tua's likely range of outcomes puts his floor at his QB16 ADP and his ceiling at around the top 6-8. I'm trying to figure out if I can push him to 11 or 10. In the meantime, I feel comfortable knowing he's a bargain and punting the "how much" question until we get closer to Week 1.
---
Sign up for my Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/