A lot happened yesterday. Let's zoom in on the implications for two players: Deshaun Watson and Alvin Kamara.
Regarding Watson, NFL disciplinary officer Sue Robinson handed down a six-game suspension. You might have read suggestions that this issue is now resolved, and Watson's first game in nearly two years will be against Baltimore on October 23rd. Yes, that might happen. Or Roger Goodell could tack on more games to the suspension. Frankly, I don't think he will, because the league has a long track record of penalizing players more for gambling and marijuana than for alleged sexual assault. (That's a brutal fact, not hyperbole.) But perhaps Goodell will surprise us. Or, other women could come forward, which would force the NFL to either (a) ignore all new accusers, or (b) acknowledge that this Watson matter won't simply vanish, as much as they'd like it to.
This is not a box that can be closed and locked. If he's lucky, it will hang over Watson for the rest of his career and beyond. If he's unlucky (i.e. if his accusers are vindicated), then his career could end as quickly as Ray Rice's.
I've read a lot of takes from fantasy analysts stating that Watson is now a locked-in top-10 QB with massive upside, per usual. What's missing, I believe, is context. A lot could happen between now and the end of this year, in 2023, in 2024, etc. Yes, a lot could happen to any player. But unlike most players, Watson is *this* close to losing everything. He's not a locked-in anything.
We should also consider what Watson might look like on the field. Some day I'll analyze the correlation between sacks and career longevity / production. For now, understand that Watson was sacked 155 times in three full seasons with the Texans. That's not normal. It's almost David Carr territory--another Houston QB whose career ended prematurely, in part because his o-line couldn't protect him. Baker Mayfield took too many sacks the past few years in Cleveland. If Watson continues to get pummeled, his play could suffer--and/or the Browns might shelf him early if this turns out to be a lost season, protecting their $200+ million asset for 2023.
I'm urging people not to value Watson like this is 2020. Instead, value him as a dart-throw elite QB who could just as easily be banished from the league as be the #1 quarterback.
Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara's felony battery hearing has been postponed for 60 days. His chances of being suspended this year are now close to zero. Dynasty managers should be mindful that this year might be his last "great" season. A possible suspension looms for 2023, when he'll be 28 years old. He's coming off his least-efficient campaign and is trying to right the ship after a career-high 287 touches in only 13 games.
I strongly believe New Orleans will add a starter-caliber back in next year's draft, if not in free agency. Kamara's contract runs through his age-31 season, but the franchise has an out after the 2023 season. If this isn't a Super Bowl-caliber team by then, in desperate need of Kamara's talents, I doubt they'll keep paying him superstar money on the downside of his career.
As always, this probably isn't a popular take. But based on age, usage, a possible future suspension, and New Orleans' gradual repositioning in the post-Drew-Brees years, Kamara realistically won't be a preseason top-8 fantasy RB again after this summer, and based on what the Saints do in the offseason, he might not be top-14. Few 28-year-olds are.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/
Regarding Watson, NFL disciplinary officer Sue Robinson handed down a six-game suspension. You might have read suggestions that this issue is now resolved, and Watson's first game in nearly two years will be against Baltimore on October 23rd. Yes, that might happen. Or Roger Goodell could tack on more games to the suspension. Frankly, I don't think he will, because the league has a long track record of penalizing players more for gambling and marijuana than for alleged sexual assault. (That's a brutal fact, not hyperbole.) But perhaps Goodell will surprise us. Or, other women could come forward, which would force the NFL to either (a) ignore all new accusers, or (b) acknowledge that this Watson matter won't simply vanish, as much as they'd like it to.
This is not a box that can be closed and locked. If he's lucky, it will hang over Watson for the rest of his career and beyond. If he's unlucky (i.e. if his accusers are vindicated), then his career could end as quickly as Ray Rice's.
I've read a lot of takes from fantasy analysts stating that Watson is now a locked-in top-10 QB with massive upside, per usual. What's missing, I believe, is context. A lot could happen between now and the end of this year, in 2023, in 2024, etc. Yes, a lot could happen to any player. But unlike most players, Watson is *this* close to losing everything. He's not a locked-in anything.
We should also consider what Watson might look like on the field. Some day I'll analyze the correlation between sacks and career longevity / production. For now, understand that Watson was sacked 155 times in three full seasons with the Texans. That's not normal. It's almost David Carr territory--another Houston QB whose career ended prematurely, in part because his o-line couldn't protect him. Baker Mayfield took too many sacks the past few years in Cleveland. If Watson continues to get pummeled, his play could suffer--and/or the Browns might shelf him early if this turns out to be a lost season, protecting their $200+ million asset for 2023.
I'm urging people not to value Watson like this is 2020. Instead, value him as a dart-throw elite QB who could just as easily be banished from the league as be the #1 quarterback.
Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara's felony battery hearing has been postponed for 60 days. His chances of being suspended this year are now close to zero. Dynasty managers should be mindful that this year might be his last "great" season. A possible suspension looms for 2023, when he'll be 28 years old. He's coming off his least-efficient campaign and is trying to right the ship after a career-high 287 touches in only 13 games.
I strongly believe New Orleans will add a starter-caliber back in next year's draft, if not in free agency. Kamara's contract runs through his age-31 season, but the franchise has an out after the 2023 season. If this isn't a Super Bowl-caliber team by then, in desperate need of Kamara's talents, I doubt they'll keep paying him superstar money on the downside of his career.
As always, this probably isn't a popular take. But based on age, usage, a possible future suspension, and New Orleans' gradual repositioning in the post-Drew-Brees years, Kamara realistically won't be a preseason top-8 fantasy RB again after this summer, and based on what the Saints do in the offseason, he might not be top-14. Few 28-year-olds are.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/