In the Fantasy Draft Kit I wrote about a few RBs with a higher-than-normal probability of getting traded before this year's deadline. This fantasy risk (or reward, depending on the player and team) didn't seem to be factored into their ADPs. And really, it's hard to factor "what-ifs" into ADPs, which highlights my concerns about rankings to begin with.
Two of the RBs I discussed are now in the news. Damien Harris is the RB27--a starter last year, and now in an uncertain role. Alexander Mattison is the RB41, and one of fantasy's top handcuffs. As I highlighted in the Draft Kit, both will be free agents after this season, which means their teams have to decide whether to (1) re-up with them for a lot more money, (2) keep them in the fold and let them walk after the season, or (3) trade them to a team willing to invest in a rental. The fantasy implications would be huge, and fantasy managers needs to weigh the possibilities.
For the Patriots, Option 1 is virtually a no-go. They have Rhamondre Stevenson for three more years and a pair of decent-to-promising rookies. I wrote that Harris "could fetch top-10 RB dollars in the open market," and I still believe that. So Option 2 has always seemed like the most realistic scenario. The problem might be finding the right trade partner. RB-needy teams like Houston and Atlanta are still in rebuilding mode. A strong playoff contender might pay if they lose their starter this summer--similar to what the Rams did with the Patriots last summer with Sony Michel after Cam Akers went down.
So I believe the Patriots are playing the waiting game, where they can get the highest return if a team is desperate enough. Harris has remained comfortably below his ADP in my rankings all summer, because I'm betting on no trade until at least October. In the meantime, Harris probably would be in no better than a timeshare with Stevenson, making him largely a TD-dependent RB3/4. Of course, if a great or even very good team's starter goes down for the season, Harris could return top-14 value as a new club's bell cow. I believe this remains the key determinant for where to draft Harris.
Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook is signed through the 2025 season, meaning there's no foreseeable path for Mattison to earn a starting role as long as Cook is active and productive. Like the Patriots, the Vikings probably aren't a Super Bowl contender this year. They could let him play out the season as a backup and spot starter. But for what purpose? He's already proven he can handle bell-cow duties when needed.
A midseason trade makes sense, unless Minnesota outperforms expectations and believes they can make a deep playoff run with current personnel. For now, I have Mattison as a bargain ranked about one round ahead of his ADP, in the belief that he's more likely to be traded than not--and that his new team would feature him more prominently.
This is another example of the complexity of rankings, which offer only two-dimensional outlooks. Two RBs with very different ADPs at the start of the preseason, but who could end up near the same spot if their current teams decide it makes more sense to cash out than to let them walk (and pick up a compensatory draft pick).
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Two of the RBs I discussed are now in the news. Damien Harris is the RB27--a starter last year, and now in an uncertain role. Alexander Mattison is the RB41, and one of fantasy's top handcuffs. As I highlighted in the Draft Kit, both will be free agents after this season, which means their teams have to decide whether to (1) re-up with them for a lot more money, (2) keep them in the fold and let them walk after the season, or (3) trade them to a team willing to invest in a rental. The fantasy implications would be huge, and fantasy managers needs to weigh the possibilities.
For the Patriots, Option 1 is virtually a no-go. They have Rhamondre Stevenson for three more years and a pair of decent-to-promising rookies. I wrote that Harris "could fetch top-10 RB dollars in the open market," and I still believe that. So Option 2 has always seemed like the most realistic scenario. The problem might be finding the right trade partner. RB-needy teams like Houston and Atlanta are still in rebuilding mode. A strong playoff contender might pay if they lose their starter this summer--similar to what the Rams did with the Patriots last summer with Sony Michel after Cam Akers went down.
So I believe the Patriots are playing the waiting game, where they can get the highest return if a team is desperate enough. Harris has remained comfortably below his ADP in my rankings all summer, because I'm betting on no trade until at least October. In the meantime, Harris probably would be in no better than a timeshare with Stevenson, making him largely a TD-dependent RB3/4. Of course, if a great or even very good team's starter goes down for the season, Harris could return top-14 value as a new club's bell cow. I believe this remains the key determinant for where to draft Harris.
Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook is signed through the 2025 season, meaning there's no foreseeable path for Mattison to earn a starting role as long as Cook is active and productive. Like the Patriots, the Vikings probably aren't a Super Bowl contender this year. They could let him play out the season as a backup and spot starter. But for what purpose? He's already proven he can handle bell-cow duties when needed.
A midseason trade makes sense, unless Minnesota outperforms expectations and believes they can make a deep playoff run with current personnel. For now, I have Mattison as a bargain ranked about one round ahead of his ADP, in the belief that he's more likely to be traded than not--and that his new team would feature him more prominently.
This is another example of the complexity of rankings, which offer only two-dimensional outlooks. Two RBs with very different ADPs at the start of the preseason, but who could end up near the same spot if their current teams decide it makes more sense to cash out than to let them walk (and pick up a compensatory draft pick).
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/