The Dameon Pierce hype apparently is justified. After sitting out last week following a 49-yard outburst on five carries in his NFL debut, the rookie looks ready to dominate the Texans' backfield. He tacked on another 37 yards and a score on only six carries.
What's not to like? He entered the night as my RB32 with an overall 86 ranking (compared to a 122 ADP). He'll probably move into the mid-20s RBs / mid-60's overall by next week. If you're drafting this weekend, you might need to each a round early.
And yet, I wouldn't go overboard. Don't overthink how good they looked last night against San Francisco's starters. Pierce is facing several uphill battles that most rookie starters don't. Houston's offense remains a work in progress. Davis Mills might be a bottom-8 QB, and their defense might not keep them in most games. Pierce averaged less than nine carries per game in each of his four college seasons.
Speaking of which, let's go back to the raw numbers. Since 2002, 48 RBs have had college touches that closely mirror Pierce's. I call it "Light-Balanced": no college season with 150+ touches, and no college season accounting for 45%+ of their total college touches. For example, Pierce had 374 total college touches, and his career-high was 123, accounting for only 33% of his total touches. That's "Light-Balanced." Relatively light collegiate workload, and relatively consistent across multiple years.
Very interestingly, only one of these 48 RBs were drafted before the fourth round (the recently cut Kenyan Drake). For some reason (we might guess why), NFL teams aren't sold on these Light-Balanced backs, preferring to take lower-stakes fliers on them in later rounds. And on the whole, their assessments have been correct. These retired RBs drafted in the 5th-7th rounds have averaged only 60 fantasy points for the career. Fourth rounders have averaged a mere 192. Of the guys still in the league, Kene Nwangwu and DeeJay Dallas are in this fourth-round group. So is Ty Johnson. Some of the top performers have been one-season flashes like Peyton Hillis. For most, success is fleeting, if not non-existant.
Pierce has a lot going for him. He's in the league's shallowest backfield. Marlon Mack's optimal Week 1 role would be as a 4-6 touch backup. Or Rex Burkhead and perhaps even Dare Ogunbowale could squeeze out Mack entirely. There's plenty of touches--including goal-line looks--available for Pierce. 60 rushing yards a game would get him past 1,000, and 25-30 receptions seems doable.
And yet . . . we have to consider game flow, which probably won't favor the running game. We have to consider what might happen is the aged Burkhead continues to slow down, and/or if Mack becomes a game-day inactive because he's simply not the answer. Will Houston go out and sign someone like Devonta Freeman or Latavius Murray. Could this franchise--knowing that Pierce had 10+ carries only nine times in college--is better suited as a 1A option.
The last time the Texans drafted a Light-Balanced RB was Alfred Blue in 2014. He had only 225 career college touches, and no season accounted for more than 36% of his total. He was sturdy like Pierce (6'2", 225 pounds) with almost identical speed and agility. He was similarly proficient in the passing game and, like Pierce, played in the SEC against very tough competition. This isn't to say Blue was on Pierce's level. But like most Light-Balanced RBs, he never became a bell cow, topping out at 11.4 carries per game in 2015.
So while Pierce might shoot up the rankings in the coming days, consider how Houston will use him, and consider how nearly every similarly-utilized college RB has operated in the NFL. Consider that the team has its eyes on 2023 and 2024, and that giving Pierce a sizable workload might be unwise in Year 1. Is he good? Yeah, few would argue otherwise at this point. But there've been a lot of good RBs who haven't been turned loose. And if Pierce is one of them--as I believe is more likely than not--then his ceiling is closer to the top 26-30 than it is the top 20-24.
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What's not to like? He entered the night as my RB32 with an overall 86 ranking (compared to a 122 ADP). He'll probably move into the mid-20s RBs / mid-60's overall by next week. If you're drafting this weekend, you might need to each a round early.
And yet, I wouldn't go overboard. Don't overthink how good they looked last night against San Francisco's starters. Pierce is facing several uphill battles that most rookie starters don't. Houston's offense remains a work in progress. Davis Mills might be a bottom-8 QB, and their defense might not keep them in most games. Pierce averaged less than nine carries per game in each of his four college seasons.
Speaking of which, let's go back to the raw numbers. Since 2002, 48 RBs have had college touches that closely mirror Pierce's. I call it "Light-Balanced": no college season with 150+ touches, and no college season accounting for 45%+ of their total college touches. For example, Pierce had 374 total college touches, and his career-high was 123, accounting for only 33% of his total touches. That's "Light-Balanced." Relatively light collegiate workload, and relatively consistent across multiple years.
Very interestingly, only one of these 48 RBs were drafted before the fourth round (the recently cut Kenyan Drake). For some reason (we might guess why), NFL teams aren't sold on these Light-Balanced backs, preferring to take lower-stakes fliers on them in later rounds. And on the whole, their assessments have been correct. These retired RBs drafted in the 5th-7th rounds have averaged only 60 fantasy points for the career. Fourth rounders have averaged a mere 192. Of the guys still in the league, Kene Nwangwu and DeeJay Dallas are in this fourth-round group. So is Ty Johnson. Some of the top performers have been one-season flashes like Peyton Hillis. For most, success is fleeting, if not non-existant.
Pierce has a lot going for him. He's in the league's shallowest backfield. Marlon Mack's optimal Week 1 role would be as a 4-6 touch backup. Or Rex Burkhead and perhaps even Dare Ogunbowale could squeeze out Mack entirely. There's plenty of touches--including goal-line looks--available for Pierce. 60 rushing yards a game would get him past 1,000, and 25-30 receptions seems doable.
And yet . . . we have to consider game flow, which probably won't favor the running game. We have to consider what might happen is the aged Burkhead continues to slow down, and/or if Mack becomes a game-day inactive because he's simply not the answer. Will Houston go out and sign someone like Devonta Freeman or Latavius Murray. Could this franchise--knowing that Pierce had 10+ carries only nine times in college--is better suited as a 1A option.
The last time the Texans drafted a Light-Balanced RB was Alfred Blue in 2014. He had only 225 career college touches, and no season accounted for more than 36% of his total. He was sturdy like Pierce (6'2", 225 pounds) with almost identical speed and agility. He was similarly proficient in the passing game and, like Pierce, played in the SEC against very tough competition. This isn't to say Blue was on Pierce's level. But like most Light-Balanced RBs, he never became a bell cow, topping out at 11.4 carries per game in 2015.
So while Pierce might shoot up the rankings in the coming days, consider how Houston will use him, and consider how nearly every similarly-utilized college RB has operated in the NFL. Consider that the team has its eyes on 2023 and 2024, and that giving Pierce a sizable workload might be unwise in Year 1. Is he good? Yeah, few would argue otherwise at this point. But there've been a lot of good RBs who haven't been turned loose. And if Pierce is one of them--as I believe is more likely than not--then his ceiling is closer to the top 26-30 than it is the top 20-24.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/