It's easy to say, "This elite player is overvalued." Much harder to say who's going to be better.
That's what I've struggled with re: Cooper Kupp, who started this spring as my WR1, and then moved down to my WR3 two weeks ago. And while Matthew Stafford's elbow tendinitis might have almost no impact by Week 1, it's enough of a concern to drop Kupp to the WR4, below CeeDee Lamb.
As we know, Kupp is the universal WR1 after posting one of the greatest statistical feats in NFL history. Including the playoffs, he racked up 178 catches for 2,425 yards and 22 touchdowns on 1,301 offensive snaps. While I haven't yet researched whether there's any correlation between WR snap count on next-year production (presumably there's not much, but . . .), I would challenge anyone here to research whether any RB, WR, or TE has played more snaps in a season than Kupp did.
Anecdotally, I can say that he led all non-QBs in regular-season snaps last year. The year before, the top four snap-count non-QBs were DeAndre Hopkins, Logan Thomas, Darren Waller, and Michael Gallup. They all missed between six and 11 games last season. The year before, Christian McCaffrey and Julian Edelman led all non-QBs, and 2020 were similarly injury-plagued.
Let's say snap-count-related regressions don't apply to WRs. We still have to acknowledge he's a 29-year-old coming off not only a career year, but one of the best campaigns ever. He's arguably not an "ascending" talent like Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and many near-elite WRs. Kupp dominated because he and Stafford were locked in. He also dominated because the Rams endured a pedestrian rushing attack due to Cam Akers' near season-long injury. They were tied for seventh-worst in YPC (4.0) while averaging the ninth-fewest attempts. They tied for the third-fewest rushing TDs. We have to imagine an improved running game will cut into Kupp's overwhelming dominance.
Back to Stafford, who's 12th in career pass attempts in 13 NFL seasons. For context, everyone else in the top 20 played more seasons. On a per-game basis, Stafford is doing what few QBs at his level have ever done. Does that factor into his tendinitis? Who knows. But we're not talking about Joe Burrow. Stafford is an aging star with a lot of mileage. He has to be that good again for Kupp to be considered a first-round pick (which is where he's going in nearly every mock draft).
Drafting Kupp might seem like the safe route. Increasingly, I see him as the riskiest of the top tier. Jefferson (23 years old), Lamb (23), and Chase (22) are just getting started. Tee Higgins (23), Jaylen Waddle (23), and Michael Pittman (24) are also ascending. A.J. Brown (25) and D.J. Moore (25) could push into the top 5 if their respective QBs step up. As for Kupp, he has nowhere to go but down. I think we all know this. The question is "How far down?"
My view is that his numbers will drop at least 33%. Optimally, he'll remain great--a weekly must-start who can help you win your league, with near-300-point potential. But I can't rationalize drafting him in the first round.
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That's what I've struggled with re: Cooper Kupp, who started this spring as my WR1, and then moved down to my WR3 two weeks ago. And while Matthew Stafford's elbow tendinitis might have almost no impact by Week 1, it's enough of a concern to drop Kupp to the WR4, below CeeDee Lamb.
As we know, Kupp is the universal WR1 after posting one of the greatest statistical feats in NFL history. Including the playoffs, he racked up 178 catches for 2,425 yards and 22 touchdowns on 1,301 offensive snaps. While I haven't yet researched whether there's any correlation between WR snap count on next-year production (presumably there's not much, but . . .), I would challenge anyone here to research whether any RB, WR, or TE has played more snaps in a season than Kupp did.
Anecdotally, I can say that he led all non-QBs in regular-season snaps last year. The year before, the top four snap-count non-QBs were DeAndre Hopkins, Logan Thomas, Darren Waller, and Michael Gallup. They all missed between six and 11 games last season. The year before, Christian McCaffrey and Julian Edelman led all non-QBs, and 2020 were similarly injury-plagued.
Let's say snap-count-related regressions don't apply to WRs. We still have to acknowledge he's a 29-year-old coming off not only a career year, but one of the best campaigns ever. He's arguably not an "ascending" talent like Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and many near-elite WRs. Kupp dominated because he and Stafford were locked in. He also dominated because the Rams endured a pedestrian rushing attack due to Cam Akers' near season-long injury. They were tied for seventh-worst in YPC (4.0) while averaging the ninth-fewest attempts. They tied for the third-fewest rushing TDs. We have to imagine an improved running game will cut into Kupp's overwhelming dominance.
Back to Stafford, who's 12th in career pass attempts in 13 NFL seasons. For context, everyone else in the top 20 played more seasons. On a per-game basis, Stafford is doing what few QBs at his level have ever done. Does that factor into his tendinitis? Who knows. But we're not talking about Joe Burrow. Stafford is an aging star with a lot of mileage. He has to be that good again for Kupp to be considered a first-round pick (which is where he's going in nearly every mock draft).
Drafting Kupp might seem like the safe route. Increasingly, I see him as the riskiest of the top tier. Jefferson (23 years old), Lamb (23), and Chase (22) are just getting started. Tee Higgins (23), Jaylen Waddle (23), and Michael Pittman (24) are also ascending. A.J. Brown (25) and D.J. Moore (25) could push into the top 5 if their respective QBs step up. As for Kupp, he has nowhere to go but down. I think we all know this. The question is "How far down?"
My view is that his numbers will drop at least 33%. Optimally, he'll remain great--a weekly must-start who can help you win your league, with near-300-point potential. But I can't rationalize drafting him in the first round.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/