After the Chiefs game this past weekend, I started re-examining their backfield. Unlike past Augusts, I've been making some major changes to my rankings based on "what-if" scenarios established 2-3 months ago. With Kansas City, the what-if concerns Ronald Jones. When the team signed him, I believed the 2020 version of Jones would resurface this summer. Two years ago he averaged 5.1 YPC while averaging two receptions per game, comfortably outpacing teammate Leonard Fournette. I viewed last year as a blip. Still only 24 years old when he joined the Chiefs in the offseason, Jones appeared poised to challenge Clyde Edwards-Helaire atop the depth chart.
My entire conception of this RB corps revolved around Jones's return to relevance. My "what-if" concerned not whether Jones would be a part of this offense, but to what degree. A 1A Jones would presumably keep CEH out of the top 40. A 1B Jones would make CEH a risky weekly starter.
Now, it appears seventh-round rookie Isiah Pacheco could take the 1B role, or else a coveted Jerick McKinnon-like role on third downs. Pacheco was the 251st pick in this year's draft. Four years ago, Justin Jackson went at #251. The year before, Chris Carson went at 249. Rashad Jennings came off the board at 250 in 2009, and Ahmad Bradshaw in 2007, and Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2005, sandwiched around Marques Colston (#252) in 2006.
So we can't simply ignore Pacheco because he went late. There's clearly a track record of end-of-draft QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs breaking through. Not often, but enough to take notice. And base on my research on college workloads, there are no obvious yellow flags for Pacheco. He was never overworked, and he also earned enough volume to demonstrate some level of weekly NFL readiness. His speed and versatility (45 receptions in his final three years at Rugers) should serve him well.
Yet he's probably not ready to take on a big load, or at least that appears to be the plan. And with Jones scuffling, Derrick Gore on the fringes, and McKinnon more of a third-down back these days, we're left with a what-if scenario I hadn't anticipated: what if CEH is the bell cow?
These days, a bell cow doesn't have to mean 350+ touches. Two years ago, CEH was the overall RB22 on 217 touches, averaging .81 fantasy points per touch in 13 games. Projected out to a full season, he was on pace for 217 points on 267 touches, which would have made him the RB11--right behind Zeke Elliott and Kareem Hunt.
I've moved him up pretty dramatically in my rankings because of this what-if shift. Rather than wonder how Jones could overtake CEH, I'm now wondering whether CEH could be one of the biggest RB steals in the first 6-7 rounds. Because his ADP is currently RB25 (and 59 overall), which assumes a continuation of last season, when he was the RB29 in points per game. Unless Jones turns things around quickly, RB29 now seems increasingly like CEH's floor.
These next two weeks, we'll get a pretty clear picture of how this all shakes out. For now, I'm tentatively very bullish about Edwards-Helaire.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/
My entire conception of this RB corps revolved around Jones's return to relevance. My "what-if" concerned not whether Jones would be a part of this offense, but to what degree. A 1A Jones would presumably keep CEH out of the top 40. A 1B Jones would make CEH a risky weekly starter.
Now, it appears seventh-round rookie Isiah Pacheco could take the 1B role, or else a coveted Jerick McKinnon-like role on third downs. Pacheco was the 251st pick in this year's draft. Four years ago, Justin Jackson went at #251. The year before, Chris Carson went at 249. Rashad Jennings came off the board at 250 in 2009, and Ahmad Bradshaw in 2007, and Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2005, sandwiched around Marques Colston (#252) in 2006.
So we can't simply ignore Pacheco because he went late. There's clearly a track record of end-of-draft QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs breaking through. Not often, but enough to take notice. And base on my research on college workloads, there are no obvious yellow flags for Pacheco. He was never overworked, and he also earned enough volume to demonstrate some level of weekly NFL readiness. His speed and versatility (45 receptions in his final three years at Rugers) should serve him well.
Yet he's probably not ready to take on a big load, or at least that appears to be the plan. And with Jones scuffling, Derrick Gore on the fringes, and McKinnon more of a third-down back these days, we're left with a what-if scenario I hadn't anticipated: what if CEH is the bell cow?
These days, a bell cow doesn't have to mean 350+ touches. Two years ago, CEH was the overall RB22 on 217 touches, averaging .81 fantasy points per touch in 13 games. Projected out to a full season, he was on pace for 217 points on 267 touches, which would have made him the RB11--right behind Zeke Elliott and Kareem Hunt.
I've moved him up pretty dramatically in my rankings because of this what-if shift. Rather than wonder how Jones could overtake CEH, I'm now wondering whether CEH could be one of the biggest RB steals in the first 6-7 rounds. Because his ADP is currently RB25 (and 59 overall), which assumes a continuation of last season, when he was the RB29 in points per game. Unless Jones turns things around quickly, RB29 now seems increasingly like CEH's floor.
These next two weeks, we'll get a pretty clear picture of how this all shakes out. For now, I'm tentatively very bullish about Edwards-Helaire.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/