On Monday I started combing through each NFL team again--another pass as we get closer to the season. Except this pass is focused more on their schedule. A lot of my sit/start decisions focus on anticipated game flow. This is the first year when I'm finalizing rankings based on anticipated season flow. Not sure if it will produce more accurate projections. But it's definitely producing some fresher perspectives on team dynamics and realistic player outcomes.
Yesterday I looked more closely at the AFC West, which might be the most offensively loaded division in league history, with four potential-to-likely future Hall-of-Fame QBs and eight receivers with at least one 1,000+ yard season. These are fascinating teams to study for fantasy, because many of us might win or lose depending on what their core players do.
I'm now wrestling with how to value Chiefs players, because as strange as it sounds, I'm predicting they'll finish last in the division. And if that happens, it could impact who plays in January (Weeks 17 and 18). It might also means Patrick Mahomes is throwing more than ever, which could be great for him, Travis Kelce, Skyy Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, etc. Or it could mean Mahomes struggles more than ever, which could mean nearly every player on that team has an overweighted ADP.
If we're drafting Mahomes or Kelce, they're weekly fantasy starters. "Set 'em and forget 'em," as the kids say. If we're drafting CEH or Moore or JSS, maybe we're *hoping* they're weekly starters, and reality they might be in our starting lineup every other week, or twice every three weeks. Of course, it all depends on league size and who else we're rostering. But there's an expectation associated with drafting each player. And when we think we've drafted a weekly starter, and then we're stuck benching him for 5+ games, that's a problem. Or drafting a streamer we warily start a handful of times.
Mahomes and Kelce, in particular, have been for years. We draft them because their ceilings are higher than--or comparable to--any other players at their position. We draft them so we can ignore them and focus on improving our roster elsewhere.
What happens when these seemingly automatic contributors falter? We saw it last year when Mahomes was more human than ever, throwing a career-high 13 picks en route to a typically "great" season, but not an elite one. He was No. 3 in the NFL in pass attempts, but only No. 10 in QB rating. For a while there were "What's wrong with Mahomes?" concerns across the NFL/fantasy universe. The Chiefs started 3-4 and nearly lost to the Giants to go 3-5. They righted the ship, but it wasn't the same dominant team, led byt he same dominant QB.
The same goes for Kelce, whose overall numbers suggest another incredible campaign. But he had more "bad" games than usual. He's assuredly not getting better. The question is how much he'll slow down in his upcoming age-33 season.
And fantasy is also about more than just the numbers. It's also about context. I keep saying this, because too often prognosticators focus on stats and stats alone. I love stats. I need stats. And they're also only one (big) piece of the puzzle. I saw one notable analyst yesterday sharing why RB #1 will be better than RB #2 this season; it's because when the played in the same game last year, RB #1 was better.
Hey, if only it were that simple. Players age. Roles shift. Contract considerations are weighed. Etc. And for today's purposes, schedules can sometimes supercede even the most actionable stats.
Because the 2022 Chiefs arguably have the toughest schedule in the league. Sure, the Broncos had one of the top defenses last year, and the Chargers upgraded their D this offseason. Combined with the Raiders team that should move the ball better, the Chiefs face an uphill battle to claim their seventh consecutive AFC West title. They went 5-1 against these three teams last year, averaging a whopping 32.8 points per game. I'd be shocked if they do better than 3-3 this year, and would be just as shocked if they average more than 26 points per game.
Three of their first four games are on the road against the Cardinals, Colts, and Bucs. Are you confidently starting Mahomes and Kelce in those games? Possibly, maybe probably? Then they get the Bills two weeks later and the Niners the following week, following by the Titans after their Week 8 bye. For context, the Bills and Titans yielded the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs last season. The Colts were the fifth best, and the Cards the seventh. The Saints, Niners, and Bucs were top 12. That's a tough first half of the season. Are you still confident starting these two every week?
Then they'll face the Rams and Bengals in Weeks 12 and 13. The Rams were #9 against opposing fantasy QBs, while the Bengals were #3. Not a good situation for managers expecting elite or even near-elite production from Mahomes or Kelce.
Again, I'm still not sure what to do about it. As subscribers have known for weeks, both guys are noticeably below their ADPs on my top 400 rankings. Do I push them even lower? Is this team about to run into a gauntlet that makes them look . . . pedestrian?
I have them finishing below .500. Yeah, I know. But there are more questions marks in this offense than we've seen in years, and it's happening when their schedule--and their division specifically--couldn't be much tougher. Does that mean Mahomes can't be top 5, or Kelce can't be top 3? Not necessarily. But this team has been top-6 in NFL scoring for five straight seasons. If they suddenly drop outside the top 10, Mahomes and Kelce might be the most impacted.
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Yesterday I looked more closely at the AFC West, which might be the most offensively loaded division in league history, with four potential-to-likely future Hall-of-Fame QBs and eight receivers with at least one 1,000+ yard season. These are fascinating teams to study for fantasy, because many of us might win or lose depending on what their core players do.
I'm now wrestling with how to value Chiefs players, because as strange as it sounds, I'm predicting they'll finish last in the division. And if that happens, it could impact who plays in January (Weeks 17 and 18). It might also means Patrick Mahomes is throwing more than ever, which could be great for him, Travis Kelce, Skyy Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, etc. Or it could mean Mahomes struggles more than ever, which could mean nearly every player on that team has an overweighted ADP.
If we're drafting Mahomes or Kelce, they're weekly fantasy starters. "Set 'em and forget 'em," as the kids say. If we're drafting CEH or Moore or JSS, maybe we're *hoping* they're weekly starters, and reality they might be in our starting lineup every other week, or twice every three weeks. Of course, it all depends on league size and who else we're rostering. But there's an expectation associated with drafting each player. And when we think we've drafted a weekly starter, and then we're stuck benching him for 5+ games, that's a problem. Or drafting a streamer we warily start a handful of times.
Mahomes and Kelce, in particular, have been for years. We draft them because their ceilings are higher than--or comparable to--any other players at their position. We draft them so we can ignore them and focus on improving our roster elsewhere.
What happens when these seemingly automatic contributors falter? We saw it last year when Mahomes was more human than ever, throwing a career-high 13 picks en route to a typically "great" season, but not an elite one. He was No. 3 in the NFL in pass attempts, but only No. 10 in QB rating. For a while there were "What's wrong with Mahomes?" concerns across the NFL/fantasy universe. The Chiefs started 3-4 and nearly lost to the Giants to go 3-5. They righted the ship, but it wasn't the same dominant team, led byt he same dominant QB.
The same goes for Kelce, whose overall numbers suggest another incredible campaign. But he had more "bad" games than usual. He's assuredly not getting better. The question is how much he'll slow down in his upcoming age-33 season.
And fantasy is also about more than just the numbers. It's also about context. I keep saying this, because too often prognosticators focus on stats and stats alone. I love stats. I need stats. And they're also only one (big) piece of the puzzle. I saw one notable analyst yesterday sharing why RB #1 will be better than RB #2 this season; it's because when the played in the same game last year, RB #1 was better.
Hey, if only it were that simple. Players age. Roles shift. Contract considerations are weighed. Etc. And for today's purposes, schedules can sometimes supercede even the most actionable stats.
Because the 2022 Chiefs arguably have the toughest schedule in the league. Sure, the Broncos had one of the top defenses last year, and the Chargers upgraded their D this offseason. Combined with the Raiders team that should move the ball better, the Chiefs face an uphill battle to claim their seventh consecutive AFC West title. They went 5-1 against these three teams last year, averaging a whopping 32.8 points per game. I'd be shocked if they do better than 3-3 this year, and would be just as shocked if they average more than 26 points per game.
Three of their first four games are on the road against the Cardinals, Colts, and Bucs. Are you confidently starting Mahomes and Kelce in those games? Possibly, maybe probably? Then they get the Bills two weeks later and the Niners the following week, following by the Titans after their Week 8 bye. For context, the Bills and Titans yielded the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs last season. The Colts were the fifth best, and the Cards the seventh. The Saints, Niners, and Bucs were top 12. That's a tough first half of the season. Are you still confident starting these two every week?
Then they'll face the Rams and Bengals in Weeks 12 and 13. The Rams were #9 against opposing fantasy QBs, while the Bengals were #3. Not a good situation for managers expecting elite or even near-elite production from Mahomes or Kelce.
Again, I'm still not sure what to do about it. As subscribers have known for weeks, both guys are noticeably below their ADPs on my top 400 rankings. Do I push them even lower? Is this team about to run into a gauntlet that makes them look . . . pedestrian?
I have them finishing below .500. Yeah, I know. But there are more questions marks in this offense than we've seen in years, and it's happening when their schedule--and their division specifically--couldn't be much tougher. Does that mean Mahomes can't be top 5, or Kelce can't be top 3? Not necessarily. But this team has been top-6 in NFL scoring for five straight seasons. If they suddenly drop outside the top 10, Mahomes and Kelce might be the most impacted.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Top 400 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/