How are you feeling about Tampa Bay's wideouts? There are a lot of variables to factor in, and those variables don't seem narrow enough.
Let's put aside Mike Evans' recent hamstring injury. He has more than a month to heal. Shouldn't be a problem. The Bucs will play it safe.
A bigger question is when Chris Godwin will return. Week 1 probably is a stretch. The team faces the Chiefs in Week 3 and the Packers in Week 4. If he doesn't start the season on the PUP (missing the first six games), then Tampa probably will assume they'll have Godwin in that Week 3-4 range. Of course, he might need a couple weeks or more to return to full speed.
Then there's Russell Gage and Julio Jones. Entering July, Gage was one of the best #3 WRs in fantasy. Now things are a little more complex. If you're drafting Gage at his WR46 ADP, you assume he'll be a bargain while Godwin's out. After that? A lot depends on how much Julio has left in the tank. Tom Brady has worked with plenty of reclamation projects. Some pan out, others flop. Heading into last season, the 33-year-old Antonio Brown was the WR39. He ended up tied for seventh with 17.3 WR fantasy points per game. It could happen to the ascending Gage, and yes, it could happen for the recently discarded Jones. Probably won't. But still . . .
Speaking of which, Brady led all quarterbacks in pass attempts last year. His top three wideouts were all top 11 in fantasy points per contest. Meanwhile, Gronk was the #3 TE in points per game. In terms of per-game positional rankings, it was a more dominant group than the Broncos' famed 2013 foursome.
Which brings us to Brady. His receivers' ADPs assume another incredible season from the legendary 45-year-old. Evans (WR9) seems increasingly risky, with a ranking that looks more like a ceiling than a median expectation. Godwin (WR21) has a good shot at being a top-20 WR when he's back and 100%. But his fifth-round price tag means crossing your fingers, instead of taking cheaper (and comparably ceiling'd) receivers like Marquise Brown, Courtland Sutton, and Jerry Jeudy. If Godwin isn't the 2021 version of Godwin until Week 5, is that worth it to you?
OK, still sticking with Brady: Yes, he racked up the second-most fantasy points of his career last season. But . . . his fantasy points per pass attempt dropped 6% from 2020, when he averaged 38.1 attempts per game--a very high number, though far below is 42.3 attempts last year. And it wasn't like he was a slouch in 2020. Brady was #2 that year in pass attempts. He appeared to be at near-peak passing prowess. Last season he simply took it to another level, thanks in part to that 10% bump in pass attempts per game.
If Brady is just as efficient (re: fantasy production) in 2022 as he was last year--and if he averages *only* 38.1 attempts per game (his sizable 2020 average), then he'll fall 40 fantasy points short of last year's total. Still amazing. And yet, much harder to feed four receivers.
If you believe Julio's mostly washed up and Gronk won't return in December, then we can see how Evans could be a top-10 WR, Gage could be top-30, and Godwin could (eventually) be top-14. But if you believe Julio could be one of the best #4 WRs in the game, then I can't see how the numbers can add up. Essentially, Brady would need to throw as much or more than he did last year (almost inconceivable) to make all four guys worth their draft price. As a result, I currently have all four below their ADPs. It's often been foolish to bet against Brady. At the same time, betting on him to do even better in 2022 seems like a bridge too far.
As always, what do you think? Are you bullish about Brady or any/all Bucs receivers? Or are you fading?
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Let's put aside Mike Evans' recent hamstring injury. He has more than a month to heal. Shouldn't be a problem. The Bucs will play it safe.
A bigger question is when Chris Godwin will return. Week 1 probably is a stretch. The team faces the Chiefs in Week 3 and the Packers in Week 4. If he doesn't start the season on the PUP (missing the first six games), then Tampa probably will assume they'll have Godwin in that Week 3-4 range. Of course, he might need a couple weeks or more to return to full speed.
Then there's Russell Gage and Julio Jones. Entering July, Gage was one of the best #3 WRs in fantasy. Now things are a little more complex. If you're drafting Gage at his WR46 ADP, you assume he'll be a bargain while Godwin's out. After that? A lot depends on how much Julio has left in the tank. Tom Brady has worked with plenty of reclamation projects. Some pan out, others flop. Heading into last season, the 33-year-old Antonio Brown was the WR39. He ended up tied for seventh with 17.3 WR fantasy points per game. It could happen to the ascending Gage, and yes, it could happen for the recently discarded Jones. Probably won't. But still . . .
Speaking of which, Brady led all quarterbacks in pass attempts last year. His top three wideouts were all top 11 in fantasy points per contest. Meanwhile, Gronk was the #3 TE in points per game. In terms of per-game positional rankings, it was a more dominant group than the Broncos' famed 2013 foursome.
Which brings us to Brady. His receivers' ADPs assume another incredible season from the legendary 45-year-old. Evans (WR9) seems increasingly risky, with a ranking that looks more like a ceiling than a median expectation. Godwin (WR21) has a good shot at being a top-20 WR when he's back and 100%. But his fifth-round price tag means crossing your fingers, instead of taking cheaper (and comparably ceiling'd) receivers like Marquise Brown, Courtland Sutton, and Jerry Jeudy. If Godwin isn't the 2021 version of Godwin until Week 5, is that worth it to you?
OK, still sticking with Brady: Yes, he racked up the second-most fantasy points of his career last season. But . . . his fantasy points per pass attempt dropped 6% from 2020, when he averaged 38.1 attempts per game--a very high number, though far below is 42.3 attempts last year. And it wasn't like he was a slouch in 2020. Brady was #2 that year in pass attempts. He appeared to be at near-peak passing prowess. Last season he simply took it to another level, thanks in part to that 10% bump in pass attempts per game.
If Brady is just as efficient (re: fantasy production) in 2022 as he was last year--and if he averages *only* 38.1 attempts per game (his sizable 2020 average), then he'll fall 40 fantasy points short of last year's total. Still amazing. And yet, much harder to feed four receivers.
If you believe Julio's mostly washed up and Gronk won't return in December, then we can see how Evans could be a top-10 WR, Gage could be top-30, and Godwin could (eventually) be top-14. But if you believe Julio could be one of the best #4 WRs in the game, then I can't see how the numbers can add up. Essentially, Brady would need to throw as much or more than he did last year (almost inconceivable) to make all four guys worth their draft price. As a result, I currently have all four below their ADPs. It's often been foolish to bet against Brady. At the same time, betting on him to do even better in 2022 seems like a bridge too far.
As always, what do you think? Are you bullish about Brady or any/all Bucs receivers? Or are you fading?
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/