Late last night, a friend shared his draft results (yes, he's in an early draft; don't judge). He crushed the first five picks: two elite RBs and three must-start WRs. Then he did something interesting, and it reminded me of one of my favorite draft strategies . . . that most people seem to dislike and/or ignore.
He drafted Michael Thomas in the 9th round and Chris Olave in the 11th. For those who are still getting reacclimated to the NFL, the Saints snagged Olave with the 11th overall pick in this year's draft. His WR ADP is 48. Thomas's is 29. And for those keeping score at home, teammate Jarvis Landry is at 51.
A few WR-related scenarios could realistically play out this season in New Orleans. (1) Thomas could return to top-20 form, or even top-12 if things break near-perfectly. (2) If the still-not-entirely-recovered Thomas misses a big chunk of the season, Olave easily could be a top-30 WR, if not top-24. Of course, we can't/shouldn't ignore Landry. But for the sake of this discussion, my friend has two of the Saints' three starting WRs, and both have weekly-must-start upside.
And here's the key: he didn't invest much for them. Thomas went at #107 overall. Olave went at #121. Essentially, he got Thomas at an extraordinary bargain based on market value, and he selected Olave maybe half a round ahead of market value.
I'm bringing this up because three years ago on this page, I discussed the benefits of the little-used WR-WR draft hedge. My example was A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. Here's what I wrote about them on August 13th, 2019. If we replaced Green's name with Thomas's and Boyd's with Olave's, the paragraph would still hold up pretty well:
"Prior to last season, Green was a perennial WR1: top 10 in 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2017 and #4 points per game in 2016. Whenever he returns from his ankle injury, he'll be a terrific bet for WR2 production and a solid bet for top-14 production. Meanwhile, Boyd is an ascending 24-year-old talent who was the 17th best WR scorer last year despite missing two contests. The hedge here is critically important. Choosing Green and not Boyd is dicey because Green is a greater-than-normal re-injury risk even when he returns (and no one really knows when he'll be 100% healthy). The payoff is great, but the risks are too. And choosing Boyd but not Green might pay off in the short term, but if/when Green returns, Boyd might revert to a #2 role. We simply don't know how this pair will play out. What we do know is that one of them is a great bet for top-16 production any given week. So I'm willing to burn a fifth-round pick to double my odds of securing that production."
As it turned out, Green didn't take a snap in 2019, elevating Boyd to WR18 production. If you'd hedged on these two, Green would have been an obvious bust, while Boyd would have been a bargain.
If you could take two WR teammates and *know* for certain that one of them would be a bargain, would you do it? I'm not talking about early-round picks. I'm talking middle rounds or later, where a 7th-round mistake can be pretty easily corrected in free agency. The 2022 Thomas-Olave dilemma is similar to the 2019 Green-Boyd dilemma, except it's a little more complicated with the underappreciated Landry looming. Still, the strategy remains compelling.
And one WR doesn't have to be a major injury risk for the strategy to work. One of my favorite WR-WR hedges this year involves Kenny Golladay (WR57 ADP) and Kadarius Toney (WR46). You're not losing much taking both at their current market values (roughly the double-digit rounds), and one *should* crack the top 40 (and I've got Golladay inside the top 35).
To put a bow on this puppy (mixed metaphors are wonderful), last year Tee Higgins (WR24 ADP) and Ja'Marr Chase (WR29) were valued as 6th/7th rounders. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk were 6th/8th rounders. When a team has locked-in #1 and #2 WRs--when the #3 has almost no shot at pushing for equal attention--and when you can get both in the middle rounds or later, you can capitalize on a WR-WR hedge. Like everything, it doesn't always work. And like everything, even when it works, it's not always a smash. But time and again, at least one of the WRs is primed to outperform expectations.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/
He drafted Michael Thomas in the 9th round and Chris Olave in the 11th. For those who are still getting reacclimated to the NFL, the Saints snagged Olave with the 11th overall pick in this year's draft. His WR ADP is 48. Thomas's is 29. And for those keeping score at home, teammate Jarvis Landry is at 51.
A few WR-related scenarios could realistically play out this season in New Orleans. (1) Thomas could return to top-20 form, or even top-12 if things break near-perfectly. (2) If the still-not-entirely-recovered Thomas misses a big chunk of the season, Olave easily could be a top-30 WR, if not top-24. Of course, we can't/shouldn't ignore Landry. But for the sake of this discussion, my friend has two of the Saints' three starting WRs, and both have weekly-must-start upside.
And here's the key: he didn't invest much for them. Thomas went at #107 overall. Olave went at #121. Essentially, he got Thomas at an extraordinary bargain based on market value, and he selected Olave maybe half a round ahead of market value.
I'm bringing this up because three years ago on this page, I discussed the benefits of the little-used WR-WR draft hedge. My example was A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. Here's what I wrote about them on August 13th, 2019. If we replaced Green's name with Thomas's and Boyd's with Olave's, the paragraph would still hold up pretty well:
"Prior to last season, Green was a perennial WR1: top 10 in 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2017 and #4 points per game in 2016. Whenever he returns from his ankle injury, he'll be a terrific bet for WR2 production and a solid bet for top-14 production. Meanwhile, Boyd is an ascending 24-year-old talent who was the 17th best WR scorer last year despite missing two contests. The hedge here is critically important. Choosing Green and not Boyd is dicey because Green is a greater-than-normal re-injury risk even when he returns (and no one really knows when he'll be 100% healthy). The payoff is great, but the risks are too. And choosing Boyd but not Green might pay off in the short term, but if/when Green returns, Boyd might revert to a #2 role. We simply don't know how this pair will play out. What we do know is that one of them is a great bet for top-16 production any given week. So I'm willing to burn a fifth-round pick to double my odds of securing that production."
As it turned out, Green didn't take a snap in 2019, elevating Boyd to WR18 production. If you'd hedged on these two, Green would have been an obvious bust, while Boyd would have been a bargain.
If you could take two WR teammates and *know* for certain that one of them would be a bargain, would you do it? I'm not talking about early-round picks. I'm talking middle rounds or later, where a 7th-round mistake can be pretty easily corrected in free agency. The 2022 Thomas-Olave dilemma is similar to the 2019 Green-Boyd dilemma, except it's a little more complicated with the underappreciated Landry looming. Still, the strategy remains compelling.
And one WR doesn't have to be a major injury risk for the strategy to work. One of my favorite WR-WR hedges this year involves Kenny Golladay (WR57 ADP) and Kadarius Toney (WR46). You're not losing much taking both at their current market values (roughly the double-digit rounds), and one *should* crack the top 40 (and I've got Golladay inside the top 35).
To put a bow on this puppy (mixed metaphors are wonderful), last year Tee Higgins (WR24 ADP) and Ja'Marr Chase (WR29) were valued as 6th/7th rounders. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk were 6th/8th rounders. When a team has locked-in #1 and #2 WRs--when the #3 has almost no shot at pushing for equal attention--and when you can get both in the middle rounds or later, you can capitalize on a WR-WR hedge. Like everything, it doesn't always work. And like everything, even when it works, it's not always a smash. But time and again, at least one of the WRs is primed to outperform expectations.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/