Before jumping into Michael Thomas, I enjoyed reading all the comments about Alvin Kamara yesterday. I read every single comment on every post, but yesterday's was really helpful as I continue to try to answer the question, "What is his draft value?" Some said you don't trust him at his current ADP. Others called him a great risk to take, given his elite ceiling. Rick Esterly reinforced the significant of playing in a (presumably) better Saints offense. Robbie Lange hit on the temptation of drafting two elite RBs in the first two rounds.
Reminds me a little of the brilliant Ray Kaufman, one of my rivals in Division A in the Premier Fantasy Football League's Winners Circuit. Last year Ray snagged Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor in the first two rounds. Remember, Taylor had an RB10 ADP and was consistently drafted in the second round. (Oh, and Ray also had Josh Allen, Diontae Johnson, and other great players--all the more remarkable in a 14-team league.) He jumped out to a 6-2 record and was comfortably leading the league in points, when Henry got hurt.
So a key question (which Ray and others who drafted Henry can answer better than I can) is whether it was worth it. Was it worth it to spend a first-round pick on an uber-elite RB for half of a fantasy season? Based on some of yesterday's comments, some might say "absolutely." Applying this to Kamara, if we knew right now that he'd finish at #5 in RB points per game across 11 contests, would we "absolutely" want him in the second round?
These are the kinds of questions we have to ask ourselves while preparing for drafts. It's not just about what a player is worth; it's what that player is worth to us. Some people might prefer a #1 ceiling / #30 floor RB to a #5 ceiling / #20 floor RB. And others don't. But the common thread is that there's no perfect approach. If we pass on Kamara, ideally it should be because we've determined drafting him offers more risk than reward compared to a different player we could draft. As always, we're playing the percentages. And we each assess percentages slightly differently.
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OK, now let's shift to Kamara's longtime teammate. Last summer, Michael Thomas was consistently going in the 6th-8th rounds of 12-team drafts, with a WR ADP of 32. Currently he's sitting on a slightly better WR29 ADP, despite major headwinds. In fact, he's currently my WR42. Here are my concerns. And again, looking forward to hearing where some of you stand with one of the toughest fantasy WRs to value.
First and second, this isn't Drew Brees's offensive, and it's not as one-dimensional as when Thomas last saw the field 18 months ago. Rookie Chris Olave and the (likely) undervalued Jarvis Landry give Jameis Winston a far better one-two punch than anything he had last year. In games he played, Thomas enjoyed a top-5 team target share each season from 2017 to 2020. He was "the guy" in the Saints' passing attack, and he was catching balls thrown by one of the NFL's most accurate passers in history. The combination of Jameis Winston and a more talented receiving corps should cap Thomas's optimal ceiling at around the top 20-24. In other words, in a 17-game season, I would expect no better than 2021 Brandin Cooks-like numbers--still terrific, but not dominant.
Third, he's still not at 100%. We'd need to take a big mental leap to trust that he'll play 17 games this season. Even 14 games seems farfetched. And it's quite possible New Orleans won't play him during the preseason, meaning it could take him at least a couple weeks to shake off the rust and acclimate to a largely new offense after missing the entire 2021 campaign.
Fourth, the Saints' defense improved dramatically beginning in 2020 (Thomas's partial season) and was near-elite last year. This team jumped into the top 5 in rushing attempts each of the last two years, and they dropped to the bottom 8 each year in pass attempts. How much of that was due to inconsistencies and injuries at QB, to a spotty WR corps, and/or to a formidable defense? Maybe a combination of these and other factors. But at the very least, defense matters. Only 16% of Thomas's 2020 targets came in the fourth quarter, compared to 24%+ each of the previous three years (when the defense was more middling). If Thomas is largely needed for only three quarters in 2022, given the additional capable mouths to feed, we can see his upside getting squeezed.
For these and other reasons, I'm fading Thomas at his current price, and it's not even close. Where do you agree, and more importantly, where do you want to push back? What needs to happen for him to be a top-10 WR?
Reminds me a little of the brilliant Ray Kaufman, one of my rivals in Division A in the Premier Fantasy Football League's Winners Circuit. Last year Ray snagged Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor in the first two rounds. Remember, Taylor had an RB10 ADP and was consistently drafted in the second round. (Oh, and Ray also had Josh Allen, Diontae Johnson, and other great players--all the more remarkable in a 14-team league.) He jumped out to a 6-2 record and was comfortably leading the league in points, when Henry got hurt.
So a key question (which Ray and others who drafted Henry can answer better than I can) is whether it was worth it. Was it worth it to spend a first-round pick on an uber-elite RB for half of a fantasy season? Based on some of yesterday's comments, some might say "absolutely." Applying this to Kamara, if we knew right now that he'd finish at #5 in RB points per game across 11 contests, would we "absolutely" want him in the second round?
These are the kinds of questions we have to ask ourselves while preparing for drafts. It's not just about what a player is worth; it's what that player is worth to us. Some people might prefer a #1 ceiling / #30 floor RB to a #5 ceiling / #20 floor RB. And others don't. But the common thread is that there's no perfect approach. If we pass on Kamara, ideally it should be because we've determined drafting him offers more risk than reward compared to a different player we could draft. As always, we're playing the percentages. And we each assess percentages slightly differently.
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OK, now let's shift to Kamara's longtime teammate. Last summer, Michael Thomas was consistently going in the 6th-8th rounds of 12-team drafts, with a WR ADP of 32. Currently he's sitting on a slightly better WR29 ADP, despite major headwinds. In fact, he's currently my WR42. Here are my concerns. And again, looking forward to hearing where some of you stand with one of the toughest fantasy WRs to value.
First and second, this isn't Drew Brees's offensive, and it's not as one-dimensional as when Thomas last saw the field 18 months ago. Rookie Chris Olave and the (likely) undervalued Jarvis Landry give Jameis Winston a far better one-two punch than anything he had last year. In games he played, Thomas enjoyed a top-5 team target share each season from 2017 to 2020. He was "the guy" in the Saints' passing attack, and he was catching balls thrown by one of the NFL's most accurate passers in history. The combination of Jameis Winston and a more talented receiving corps should cap Thomas's optimal ceiling at around the top 20-24. In other words, in a 17-game season, I would expect no better than 2021 Brandin Cooks-like numbers--still terrific, but not dominant.
Third, he's still not at 100%. We'd need to take a big mental leap to trust that he'll play 17 games this season. Even 14 games seems farfetched. And it's quite possible New Orleans won't play him during the preseason, meaning it could take him at least a couple weeks to shake off the rust and acclimate to a largely new offense after missing the entire 2021 campaign.
Fourth, the Saints' defense improved dramatically beginning in 2020 (Thomas's partial season) and was near-elite last year. This team jumped into the top 5 in rushing attempts each of the last two years, and they dropped to the bottom 8 each year in pass attempts. How much of that was due to inconsistencies and injuries at QB, to a spotty WR corps, and/or to a formidable defense? Maybe a combination of these and other factors. But at the very least, defense matters. Only 16% of Thomas's 2020 targets came in the fourth quarter, compared to 24%+ each of the previous three years (when the defense was more middling). If Thomas is largely needed for only three quarters in 2022, given the additional capable mouths to feed, we can see his upside getting squeezed.
For these and other reasons, I'm fading Thomas at his current price, and it's not even close. Where do you agree, and more importantly, where do you want to push back? What needs to happen for him to be a top-10 WR?