Five weeks ago I walked through initial thought on the Giants. Yesterday I casually brought up Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney. So this is a good time to dive a little deeper on two receivers many managers are ignoring, avoiding, or both (if that's even possible).
As shared a couple times over the years, I like betting on players with little left to lose, and also on talented players coming off very bad seasons--when the circumstances surrounding those bad seasons likely will improve. Daniel Jones has maybe half a season to prove he's still an NFL starter. Kenny Golladay is one more dismal campaign away from being perhaps a top-10 contract bust of the decade. And while Toney probably shouldn't have been drafted in the first round in 2021, he can redeem himself--and lock in a longer-term starting job--if his health holds up.
Fortunately for the Giants' receivers, Tyrod Taylor is at least an adequate upgrade over last year's woeful backup situation. So if Jones gets hurt or is benched, fantasy managers won't be as exposed as when Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm took over. I know, small consolation. But we're building toward something here.
I'm interested in statistical probabilities. Last year Evan Engram led all Giants receivers in receptions. He's gone, and it's doubtful that Ricky Seals-Jones or Daniel Bellinger will earn the same percentage of looks. Sterling Shepard (team leader in receiving yards per game) might miss the first six contests of the season--or possibly more--as he recovers from an Achilles tear. Darius Slayton (#3 on the team in targets) is not expected to play a significant role in the final year of his contract, and might not even make the team out of camp.
For several months, I've been eyeing a consolidation in the Giants' receiving corps, as the team puts more emphasis on getting the ball to their two best (and most-invested-in) playmakers. And yet, in the last five weeks, Golladay's WR ADP has dropped from 53 to 57. Toney's has inched upward from 47 to 46. Wan'Dale Robinson is next up at 101. Sure, Robinson could make some noise. But his most realistic outcome is as a distanct #3 WR behind Golladay and Toney.
As I mentioned last month, Golladay was the best overall Giants fantasy WR last year despite finishing 79th. In the past 20 years, only one team (the 2017 Browns) have had a worse "best" fantasy WR. He didn't score. He sometimes played hurt. He frequently was catching balls thrown by the previoulsy mentioned Glennon and Fromm. And his target share made no sense given how much mone this franchise owes him.
Barring serious injuries (because of course, injuries are the ultimate equalizer), I'm all in on Golladay in 2022--not just because he's better than what we saw last year, but more importantly because the Giants can't afford to underutilize him. And with Engram gone, Shepard hurt, and Slayton possibly on the way out, the decision is even easier.
Golladay is #30 on my draft board. Toney is ranked right around his ADP, though he'll move up considerably if Shepard lands ont the PUP list. And if you think this is a bit nuts, consider that in 2020, Shepard was #33 in WR fantasy points per game. Jones's numbers that season? 2,943 passing yards and 11 TD passes in 14 games.
Jones doesn't have to be "good" to feed Golladay and Toney above their ADPs. He doesn't even need to be middling. He just needs to be better than Glennon and Fromm were last year, and Golladay and Toney need to stay on the field. The rest should take care of itself.
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As shared a couple times over the years, I like betting on players with little left to lose, and also on talented players coming off very bad seasons--when the circumstances surrounding those bad seasons likely will improve. Daniel Jones has maybe half a season to prove he's still an NFL starter. Kenny Golladay is one more dismal campaign away from being perhaps a top-10 contract bust of the decade. And while Toney probably shouldn't have been drafted in the first round in 2021, he can redeem himself--and lock in a longer-term starting job--if his health holds up.
Fortunately for the Giants' receivers, Tyrod Taylor is at least an adequate upgrade over last year's woeful backup situation. So if Jones gets hurt or is benched, fantasy managers won't be as exposed as when Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm took over. I know, small consolation. But we're building toward something here.
I'm interested in statistical probabilities. Last year Evan Engram led all Giants receivers in receptions. He's gone, and it's doubtful that Ricky Seals-Jones or Daniel Bellinger will earn the same percentage of looks. Sterling Shepard (team leader in receiving yards per game) might miss the first six contests of the season--or possibly more--as he recovers from an Achilles tear. Darius Slayton (#3 on the team in targets) is not expected to play a significant role in the final year of his contract, and might not even make the team out of camp.
For several months, I've been eyeing a consolidation in the Giants' receiving corps, as the team puts more emphasis on getting the ball to their two best (and most-invested-in) playmakers. And yet, in the last five weeks, Golladay's WR ADP has dropped from 53 to 57. Toney's has inched upward from 47 to 46. Wan'Dale Robinson is next up at 101. Sure, Robinson could make some noise. But his most realistic outcome is as a distanct #3 WR behind Golladay and Toney.
As I mentioned last month, Golladay was the best overall Giants fantasy WR last year despite finishing 79th. In the past 20 years, only one team (the 2017 Browns) have had a worse "best" fantasy WR. He didn't score. He sometimes played hurt. He frequently was catching balls thrown by the previoulsy mentioned Glennon and Fromm. And his target share made no sense given how much mone this franchise owes him.
Barring serious injuries (because of course, injuries are the ultimate equalizer), I'm all in on Golladay in 2022--not just because he's better than what we saw last year, but more importantly because the Giants can't afford to underutilize him. And with Engram gone, Shepard hurt, and Slayton possibly on the way out, the decision is even easier.
Golladay is #30 on my draft board. Toney is ranked right around his ADP, though he'll move up considerably if Shepard lands ont the PUP list. And if you think this is a bit nuts, consider that in 2020, Shepard was #33 in WR fantasy points per game. Jones's numbers that season? 2,943 passing yards and 11 TD passes in 14 games.
Jones doesn't have to be "good" to feed Golladay and Toney above their ADPs. He doesn't even need to be middling. He just needs to be better than Glennon and Fromm were last year, and Golladay and Toney need to stay on the field. The rest should take care of itself.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/