That offseason trade that sent Russell Wilson to Denver and Drew Lock to Seattle could go down as the most impactful QB-QB swaps of the decade. Since the brief Peyton Manning era, the Broncos had failed to find even a middling replacement. The best post-Peyton fantasy season was a QB19 effort in 2018. Three times the top Denver QB finished 30th or worst.
In dynasty leagues, this meant Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, (and yes, the underappreciated Tim Patrick), could be mired in mediocrity for years. Last year, the best Denver WR in fantasy points per game was (you guessed it) Patrick at 9.8, which ranked 52nd among all fantasy WRs. There were no reliable streamers in this otherwise very talented receiver corps. There was only unrealized potential.
So the big question is not whether these three Broncos will take giant leaps with Wilson at the helm. The market already has factored Wilson's presence into Sutton's (WR26 ADP) and Jeudy's (WR27) values. And Patrick (WR64) should move into the top 50 by August--and if he doesn't, he'll be one of the safest non-top-50 WR bets out there.
No, the big question is whether D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will suffer the same fate as Sutton/Jeudy/Patrick did last season. This is no knock on Drew Lock (or Geno Smith). It's simply reality. Lock/Smith have to play meaningfully better than they did last year for their two superb wideouts to be weekly fantasy starters--or even weekly streamers. And I'm having a lot of trouble seeing that happen, especially after Seattle drafted Kenneth Walker to pair with Rashaad Penny. This has the makings of the most run-heavy Seahawks offense since 2011, which featured Tavaris Jackson at QB and the ascending Marshawn Lynch in the backfield (the year before Wilson was drafted).
We're so accustomed to witnessing Seahawk WR dominance in the Wilson era, that it's hard for the market to value Metcalf and Lockett. The former is sitting at WR17, while the latter is all the way down at WR36. For context, Lockett averaged more points per game than Lockett last season, and trailed by only 0.4 points per game in 2020. I understand there are reasons why the market is more bullish about Metcalf, including the possibility that Seattle trades him (to a team with a better QB) before his contract expires.
But if that's the main reason why Metcalf's getting drafted--on average--several rounds ahead of Lockett, then I'd question the logic. Because WR17 is a steep price to pay for someone catching balls thrown by Lock or Geno.
I've got Metcalf a little below Sutton and Jeudy on my draft board. If you agree with the market and think he's the best fantasy WR on both teams, I look forward to hearing why. What am I missing? In the meantime, I'm playing the percentages by acknowledging the impact of good and not-so-good quarterbacking on receivers. We've never seen Sutton and Jeudy catching balls from a great QB, though we can anticipate what that might look like . . . and so can the market. Their value has spiked since January as a result.
But somehow, the market envisions only a narrow regression from Metcalf. It doesn't seem to add up.
In dynasty leagues, this meant Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, (and yes, the underappreciated Tim Patrick), could be mired in mediocrity for years. Last year, the best Denver WR in fantasy points per game was (you guessed it) Patrick at 9.8, which ranked 52nd among all fantasy WRs. There were no reliable streamers in this otherwise very talented receiver corps. There was only unrealized potential.
So the big question is not whether these three Broncos will take giant leaps with Wilson at the helm. The market already has factored Wilson's presence into Sutton's (WR26 ADP) and Jeudy's (WR27) values. And Patrick (WR64) should move into the top 50 by August--and if he doesn't, he'll be one of the safest non-top-50 WR bets out there.
No, the big question is whether D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will suffer the same fate as Sutton/Jeudy/Patrick did last season. This is no knock on Drew Lock (or Geno Smith). It's simply reality. Lock/Smith have to play meaningfully better than they did last year for their two superb wideouts to be weekly fantasy starters--or even weekly streamers. And I'm having a lot of trouble seeing that happen, especially after Seattle drafted Kenneth Walker to pair with Rashaad Penny. This has the makings of the most run-heavy Seahawks offense since 2011, which featured Tavaris Jackson at QB and the ascending Marshawn Lynch in the backfield (the year before Wilson was drafted).
We're so accustomed to witnessing Seahawk WR dominance in the Wilson era, that it's hard for the market to value Metcalf and Lockett. The former is sitting at WR17, while the latter is all the way down at WR36. For context, Lockett averaged more points per game than Lockett last season, and trailed by only 0.4 points per game in 2020. I understand there are reasons why the market is more bullish about Metcalf, including the possibility that Seattle trades him (to a team with a better QB) before his contract expires.
But if that's the main reason why Metcalf's getting drafted--on average--several rounds ahead of Lockett, then I'd question the logic. Because WR17 is a steep price to pay for someone catching balls thrown by Lock or Geno.
I've got Metcalf a little below Sutton and Jeudy on my draft board. If you agree with the market and think he's the best fantasy WR on both teams, I look forward to hearing why. What am I missing? In the meantime, I'm playing the percentages by acknowledging the impact of good and not-so-good quarterbacking on receivers. We've never seen Sutton and Jeudy catching balls from a great QB, though we can anticipate what that might look like . . . and so can the market. Their value has spiked since January as a result.
But somehow, the market envisions only a narrow regression from Metcalf. It doesn't seem to add up.