Cordarrelle Patterson has been one of my favorite players to research this offseason. The 2013 first-round pick had only 57 touches in 16 games as a rookie. He finally topped that total three years later . . . with 59 touches. In fact, last year's 205 touches accounted for 35% of his career total, smashing his previous career high of 85 touches.
For much of last season, he was elite. Not just good or even great. Simply elite. Through Week 14, he averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game. For context, that put him comfortably ahead of guys like Najee Harris.
Then he stopped getting targeted--only seven looks in his last four games. And his carries dwindled down to four in Week 18. He was still earning roughly the same percentage of offensive snaps he'd enjoyed all season. But he was phased out, or else defenses forced Matt Ryan to look elsewhere. Because last year's Falcons' offense was comprised largely of Patterson, Kyle Pitts, and Russell Gage. Mike Davis did the best he could on 185 touches. But he was clearly TD dependent and well past whatever prime he once displayed.
This year's Falcons have a new QB and a new #1 WR. They also drafted RB Tyler Allgeier . . . but in the fifth round. He was the 12th running back taken in the draft. They had two picks in the third round with potential impact rookie RBs like Rachaad White, Tyrion Davis-Price, Brian Robinson, Zamir White, and Isaiah Spiller still on the board. Their backfield now consists of Patterson, Allgeier, Damien Williams, and Qadree Ollison. Presumably the latter three will battle it out for Davis-like touches--or maybe even less. It's hard to envision Allgeier breaking out, and it's hard to imagine Williams or Ollison breaking through in what remains a sub-par offense.
We might assume, then, that Atlanta didn't believe they needed a franchise RB in 2022. Improve on defense, find their potential QB of the future, and land a mainstay #1 WR for years to come. Maybe some of you believe Allgeier is the answer. We'll surely get a good sense of his NFL readiness by mid-August. In the meantime, I believe the team plans for Patterson to continue operating as a highly targeted 1A back.
But their RB ADPs say something different. Patterson's is 41, while Allgeier's is 52. The 31-year-old Patterson is coming off the biggest workload of his career, and he's not currently 100% healthy. Surely that's factoring into managers' (and experts') concerns. That said, I see no clear path for Allgeier to outperform Patterson, unless Patterson misses at least five games. Patterson's role is relatively assured; his floor is solid. Allgeier is hit-or-miss. Yet their ADPs suggest they both hold streaming potential.
Barring a serious injury to Patterson, I believe he's a far better bet to outperform his ADP. Opening it up to you all: am I missing something here? Is Patterson set up for a major regression? Or is his ADP bizarrely low for someone who *should* lead this backfield in touches?
For much of last season, he was elite. Not just good or even great. Simply elite. Through Week 14, he averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game. For context, that put him comfortably ahead of guys like Najee Harris.
Then he stopped getting targeted--only seven looks in his last four games. And his carries dwindled down to four in Week 18. He was still earning roughly the same percentage of offensive snaps he'd enjoyed all season. But he was phased out, or else defenses forced Matt Ryan to look elsewhere. Because last year's Falcons' offense was comprised largely of Patterson, Kyle Pitts, and Russell Gage. Mike Davis did the best he could on 185 touches. But he was clearly TD dependent and well past whatever prime he once displayed.
This year's Falcons have a new QB and a new #1 WR. They also drafted RB Tyler Allgeier . . . but in the fifth round. He was the 12th running back taken in the draft. They had two picks in the third round with potential impact rookie RBs like Rachaad White, Tyrion Davis-Price, Brian Robinson, Zamir White, and Isaiah Spiller still on the board. Their backfield now consists of Patterson, Allgeier, Damien Williams, and Qadree Ollison. Presumably the latter three will battle it out for Davis-like touches--or maybe even less. It's hard to envision Allgeier breaking out, and it's hard to imagine Williams or Ollison breaking through in what remains a sub-par offense.
We might assume, then, that Atlanta didn't believe they needed a franchise RB in 2022. Improve on defense, find their potential QB of the future, and land a mainstay #1 WR for years to come. Maybe some of you believe Allgeier is the answer. We'll surely get a good sense of his NFL readiness by mid-August. In the meantime, I believe the team plans for Patterson to continue operating as a highly targeted 1A back.
But their RB ADPs say something different. Patterson's is 41, while Allgeier's is 52. The 31-year-old Patterson is coming off the biggest workload of his career, and he's not currently 100% healthy. Surely that's factoring into managers' (and experts') concerns. That said, I see no clear path for Allgeier to outperform Patterson, unless Patterson misses at least five games. Patterson's role is relatively assured; his floor is solid. Allgeier is hit-or-miss. Yet their ADPs suggest they both hold streaming potential.
Barring a serious injury to Patterson, I believe he's a far better bet to outperform his ADP. Opening it up to you all: am I missing something here? Is Patterson set up for a major regression? Or is his ADP bizarrely low for someone who *should* lead this backfield in touches?