Over the past five years, no fantasy RB has been as consistently "great" as Alvin Kamara. He's the only back who's finished in the top 12 in RB fantasy points per game each season--which happen to be all five seasons he's been in the league. Until last year, he'd eclipsed 80 receptions in each of his first four campaigns. For context, all-time great receiver Randy Moss never had four straight 80+ catch seasons. Kamara arguably is in a league of his own, and by extension, has quite possibly been the most bankable non-QB, period.
If you're up for it, I'd like to get some chatter going today on Kamara's 2022 fantasy value. Because he's a pretty unique example of a player who's been a locked-in elite draft option each of the last four summers, but is now facing a range of likely outcomes that's as broad as some RB handcuffs. The first issue concerns a possible suspension--and when such a suspension could be enforced. The second issue concerns how age and mileage might impact how the Saints use him.
He was arrested in February, and his next court hearing is scheduled for August. The popular buzz is that he could receive a six-game suspension. Of course, the suspension could be applied to the 2023 season, rather than to this one. Or he might appeal it and continue playing. Or it could be a lesser suspension . . . or a greater one.
If we were talking about an injured player working his way back for Week 1, then we could be at least somewhat grounded in knowing that he should be "fine" by midseason. And if we were talking about a weekly streamer, it would be worth maybe 30 words, but not 800.
But we're talking about the most consistently great RB of the past five years--a sure-fire top-5 RB this year if not for the *possibility* of a suspension. His RB ADP is 9. His overall ADP is 15. In other words, on average he's going in the early second round of 12-team leagues. This means most people think he won't be suspended--or at least not for more than a couple games. So are you willing to roll the dice on that? Will you use a second-round pick on a perennially elite / near-elite RB who probably can't come close to meeting market expectations if he's forced to miss six games . . . or even four?
And even if he's not suspended and plays all 17 games, how much better than his RB9 ADP will he be? This brings up the second factor to consider: age and mileage. He's averaged 257 touches per season. Last year he hit a career-high of 287 touches in a career-low 13 games. He averaged a career-worst .82 fantasy points per touch. The year before he averaged twice as much per touch. Now, I shared last year why I traded him after Week 1--that it appeared he'd be the offensive focal point more than ever, and that his efficiency would drop. Turned out I was right and wrong. His efficiency plummeted, and yet his fantasy production thrived. Why? Because he was fed more than ever.
This year's Saints offense is more balanced. The passing attack should once again be good, or even very good (depending on Michael Thomas's status). Kamara could go back to being a 17-18 touch-per-game option instead of last year's 22 touches. Maybe his efficiency will improve. Or maybe the soon-to-be 27-year-old is on the downside of his career, and New Orleans will be more careful with their franchise RB, whose contract runs into his 30's.
I understand Kamara's upside. We all do. But his ADP seems aggressive. It assumes a suspension probably won't happen, and it also assumes he'll post per-game numbers comparable to last year after handling the heaviest workload of his career.
If you agree, I'd love to hear why. And more importantly, if you disagree, I'd love to hear why. Are you comfortable rolling the dice on a normally reliable, high-upside RB? And if he's suspended for the first six games, but is elite the other 11 games, is he worth an early second-rounder?
If you're up for it, I'd like to get some chatter going today on Kamara's 2022 fantasy value. Because he's a pretty unique example of a player who's been a locked-in elite draft option each of the last four summers, but is now facing a range of likely outcomes that's as broad as some RB handcuffs. The first issue concerns a possible suspension--and when such a suspension could be enforced. The second issue concerns how age and mileage might impact how the Saints use him.
He was arrested in February, and his next court hearing is scheduled for August. The popular buzz is that he could receive a six-game suspension. Of course, the suspension could be applied to the 2023 season, rather than to this one. Or he might appeal it and continue playing. Or it could be a lesser suspension . . . or a greater one.
If we were talking about an injured player working his way back for Week 1, then we could be at least somewhat grounded in knowing that he should be "fine" by midseason. And if we were talking about a weekly streamer, it would be worth maybe 30 words, but not 800.
But we're talking about the most consistently great RB of the past five years--a sure-fire top-5 RB this year if not for the *possibility* of a suspension. His RB ADP is 9. His overall ADP is 15. In other words, on average he's going in the early second round of 12-team leagues. This means most people think he won't be suspended--or at least not for more than a couple games. So are you willing to roll the dice on that? Will you use a second-round pick on a perennially elite / near-elite RB who probably can't come close to meeting market expectations if he's forced to miss six games . . . or even four?
And even if he's not suspended and plays all 17 games, how much better than his RB9 ADP will he be? This brings up the second factor to consider: age and mileage. He's averaged 257 touches per season. Last year he hit a career-high of 287 touches in a career-low 13 games. He averaged a career-worst .82 fantasy points per touch. The year before he averaged twice as much per touch. Now, I shared last year why I traded him after Week 1--that it appeared he'd be the offensive focal point more than ever, and that his efficiency would drop. Turned out I was right and wrong. His efficiency plummeted, and yet his fantasy production thrived. Why? Because he was fed more than ever.
This year's Saints offense is more balanced. The passing attack should once again be good, or even very good (depending on Michael Thomas's status). Kamara could go back to being a 17-18 touch-per-game option instead of last year's 22 touches. Maybe his efficiency will improve. Or maybe the soon-to-be 27-year-old is on the downside of his career, and New Orleans will be more careful with their franchise RB, whose contract runs into his 30's.
I understand Kamara's upside. We all do. But his ADP seems aggressive. It assumes a suspension probably won't happen, and it also assumes he'll post per-game numbers comparable to last year after handling the heaviest workload of his career.
If you agree, I'd love to hear why. And more importantly, if you disagree, I'd love to hear why. Are you comfortable rolling the dice on a normally reliable, high-upside RB? And if he's suspended for the first six games, but is elite the other 11 games, is he worth an early second-rounder?