Yesterday I shared some findings on RB fantasy performances based on their college workloads, broken down by which round RBs were drafted (from 2002 to 2016). My spreadsheet has more than 20,000 cells of data. What I shared yesterday is a very, very small fraction of everything this spreadsheet shows. The initial focus is on workloads, because as some of you know, I've been really interested in this subject for a few years. Two summers ago I shared that based on decades of NFL data, high-usage (350+ touch) RBs have regressed the following year in most instances, and the average net regression is 23% of fantasy points. Very compelling. Very actionable.
There are so many ways to slice data, and last year I sliced the 350+ touch findings based on age, finding that young RBs coming off 350+ touch seasons fared significantly better (relatively speaking) than progressively older RBs. Adding that second variable to the mix made the results even more compelling and more actionable. Guys like Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris are no longer at risk of a 23% regression. Based on their age, they're at risk of *only* a 17% regression. Still risky. But slightly more tolerable.
So I want to spend a couple minutes today building off of yesterday's findings, highlighting a few of this year's rookies who fit into some definable categories. How might it shift our thinking on these players' values?
First, Breece Hall: he's the best-ranked rookie RB based on ADP (RB21). The first RB taken in this year's NFL draft, he's expected to start for the Jets over Michael Carter. Worst-case scenario, he'll split backfield work out of the gate. Hall had 800 touches in college. Here's something new: first-round RBs with 800+ college touches have averaged 1,532 career fantasy points (compared to only 1,054 points for all first-round RBs). That's a 45% jump. Pretty significant, although the margin of error is fairly high. Past first-rounders who fit into this category include Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Cedric Benson, and DeAngelo Williams. But there have also been plenty of successful low-college-volume first-round RBs. So this is all about averages. The good and the bad. And for heavy-volume college RBs, the good is much better (on average) than the "good" for low-volume RBs.
But here's what really hit me, and maybe it'll hit you too. Among second-round RBs, those who had 800+ touches in college averaged 855 fantasy points vs. 603 for all second-round RBs (regardless of college workload). That's a 42% performance gap--almost identical to the performance gap for first-round RBs. And the gaps for other rounds are 73% (third round), 84% (fourth round), and 103% (fifth round). Sixth rounders drop back down to 46%, while heavy-volume seventh rounders are the only RBs to perform worse than all seventh rounders (13%).
If we focus the analysis instead on 600+ touch college RBs (instead of 800+), the margins are much narrower for all except the sixth rounders. So there's evidence (possibly strong, and possibly TBD) that Breece Hall is well-positioned to outperform the average second-round RB in his career. It also helps that he enjoyed a relatively balanced workload in college--topping out at 289 touches, which accounted for only 36% of his total college touches. As we learned yesterday, the danger zone (based on 2002-2016 data) begins at around 50%. Less than 42% is ideal.
Let's look at one more: the trendy Tyler Allgeier. Some are saying he might start for the Falcons this year. And it makes sense: Cordarrelle Patterson probably has nowhere to go but down, and fellow 30-something-year-old Damien Williams has a very narrow path to relevance. Despite being a fifth-round pick, Allgeier is poised to earn 100, 150, or even more touches if he shows well in August.
Here's what jumps out at me based on the data: He had 498 college touches, and 304 of those came in one season, accounting for 61% of his collegiate workload. Across the board (all seven rounds), RBs with less than 500 career college touches score fewer fantasy points than all RBs. And when we factor in his 300+ touch season that accounted for more than 60% of his total workload, that puts him in an even worse category based on historical fantasy numbers.
None of this means Hall will shine in Year 1 while Allgeier will flop. In fact, even if the numbers play out similarly to historical averages, Hall could bomb as a rookie and then find his footing by Year 3, while Allgeier could crush it this season and then fade dramatically beginning in 2023 or 2024.
But if you're in a dynasty league, there are reasons to be relatively bullish about Hall and relatively tentative about Allgeier (and for somewhat similar reasons, Hassan Haskins and Jerome Ford). The helpful thing about this kind of research is that it improves with age. Every year, we'll have more data to pull from, which will help iron out the outliers and make these findings even more actionable. For now, 15 years of data paints a pretty clear picture--clear enough to share it with you this weekend. In the next few years, as more RBs retire and their final results are incorporated into the study, I hope it will be as sturdy as the 350+ touch RB regression rates.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/
There are so many ways to slice data, and last year I sliced the 350+ touch findings based on age, finding that young RBs coming off 350+ touch seasons fared significantly better (relatively speaking) than progressively older RBs. Adding that second variable to the mix made the results even more compelling and more actionable. Guys like Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris are no longer at risk of a 23% regression. Based on their age, they're at risk of *only* a 17% regression. Still risky. But slightly more tolerable.
So I want to spend a couple minutes today building off of yesterday's findings, highlighting a few of this year's rookies who fit into some definable categories. How might it shift our thinking on these players' values?
First, Breece Hall: he's the best-ranked rookie RB based on ADP (RB21). The first RB taken in this year's NFL draft, he's expected to start for the Jets over Michael Carter. Worst-case scenario, he'll split backfield work out of the gate. Hall had 800 touches in college. Here's something new: first-round RBs with 800+ college touches have averaged 1,532 career fantasy points (compared to only 1,054 points for all first-round RBs). That's a 45% jump. Pretty significant, although the margin of error is fairly high. Past first-rounders who fit into this category include Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Cedric Benson, and DeAngelo Williams. But there have also been plenty of successful low-college-volume first-round RBs. So this is all about averages. The good and the bad. And for heavy-volume college RBs, the good is much better (on average) than the "good" for low-volume RBs.
But here's what really hit me, and maybe it'll hit you too. Among second-round RBs, those who had 800+ touches in college averaged 855 fantasy points vs. 603 for all second-round RBs (regardless of college workload). That's a 42% performance gap--almost identical to the performance gap for first-round RBs. And the gaps for other rounds are 73% (third round), 84% (fourth round), and 103% (fifth round). Sixth rounders drop back down to 46%, while heavy-volume seventh rounders are the only RBs to perform worse than all seventh rounders (13%).
If we focus the analysis instead on 600+ touch college RBs (instead of 800+), the margins are much narrower for all except the sixth rounders. So there's evidence (possibly strong, and possibly TBD) that Breece Hall is well-positioned to outperform the average second-round RB in his career. It also helps that he enjoyed a relatively balanced workload in college--topping out at 289 touches, which accounted for only 36% of his total college touches. As we learned yesterday, the danger zone (based on 2002-2016 data) begins at around 50%. Less than 42% is ideal.
Let's look at one more: the trendy Tyler Allgeier. Some are saying he might start for the Falcons this year. And it makes sense: Cordarrelle Patterson probably has nowhere to go but down, and fellow 30-something-year-old Damien Williams has a very narrow path to relevance. Despite being a fifth-round pick, Allgeier is poised to earn 100, 150, or even more touches if he shows well in August.
Here's what jumps out at me based on the data: He had 498 college touches, and 304 of those came in one season, accounting for 61% of his collegiate workload. Across the board (all seven rounds), RBs with less than 500 career college touches score fewer fantasy points than all RBs. And when we factor in his 300+ touch season that accounted for more than 60% of his total workload, that puts him in an even worse category based on historical fantasy numbers.
None of this means Hall will shine in Year 1 while Allgeier will flop. In fact, even if the numbers play out similarly to historical averages, Hall could bomb as a rookie and then find his footing by Year 3, while Allgeier could crush it this season and then fade dramatically beginning in 2023 or 2024.
But if you're in a dynasty league, there are reasons to be relatively bullish about Hall and relatively tentative about Allgeier (and for somewhat similar reasons, Hassan Haskins and Jerome Ford). The helpful thing about this kind of research is that it improves with age. Every year, we'll have more data to pull from, which will help iron out the outliers and make these findings even more actionable. For now, 15 years of data paints a pretty clear picture--clear enough to share it with you this weekend. In the next few years, as more RBs retire and their final results are incorporated into the study, I hope it will be as sturdy as the 350+ touch RB regression rates.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/