There's plenty of excitement--or at least, interest--in this year's rookie RBs. Breece Hall leads the group as a likely starter, and roughly 10 others could play Week 1 roles ranging from starting to 1B to glorified handcuff to third-down back. A lot could happen these next 4-5 weeks, which is partly why this time of year is so fascinating from a fantasy perspective.
But this is also a pretty unusual offseason for rookie RBs. Hall has the best ADP (RB21). I believe the last time a rookie class had zero RBs in the top 20 was in 2014 (Bishop Sankey). In fact, based on the names I see in previous years' draft rundowns, we might have to go back to 2011 or even 2005 to find another example.
Why does this matter? Because rookie RBs are so tough to value. We've seen Jonathan Taylor on an NFL field. We know he can dominate. The same goes for a dozen or more other RBs. And at least 20 others are fully capable of netting 12+ touches per game if needed. Track records are pathways to future production. It's not that we're chasing points. We're simply identifying and betting on applied talent. CMC might or might not be one of the game's biggest injury risks. But we know if he's healthy, he's one of the best at his position.
Yet with rookies, there's still some mystery about how much their college games can translate in the NFL in Year 1. And that mystery was the subject of research I started yesterday--something I've wanted to tackle for a while. It's still in the very early stages. But a few things jump out, and I want to share them here as we try assess rookies' fantasy values.
First (and again, this is relatively preliminary), sixth- and seventh-rounders are almost universally fantasy irrelevant. Elijah Mitchell was an amazing story last year because it was so hard to predict. To a lesser extent, fellow sixth-rounder Khalil Herbert made surprising waves. And of course we can't forget about Chris Carson in 2017. But on the whole, the numbers are compelling, as preseason buzz surrounding guys like Elijah McGuire (2017), John Kelly (2018), Darwin Thompson (2019), Eno Benjamin (2020), and Larry Rountree (2021) usually don't carry into the season.
Among fourth- and fifth-rounders, there's definitely more reliable production. And occasionally we find a breakout (like 2017's Aaron Jones). But I think last year spoiled us a bit on what these early Day 3 draftees can do. Michael Carter, Rhamondre Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard, and Kenneth Gainwell all played solid-to-sizable roles last year. Whether or not that's contributing to this year's buzz, the fact is, fourth- and fifth-round rookies like Dameon Pierce, Zamir White, Isaiah Spiller, Pierre Strong, and Tyler Allgeier (among others) have become trendy picks. And hey, I'm part of the problem, continually pushing Spiller and White.
But prior to last year, this 4/5 group rarely produced a notable fantasy contributor. Remember the 2017 hype around Joe Williams and Donnell Pumphrey? Or Paul Perkins or Wendell Smallwood (2016)? They had the opportunity, and didn't seize it, or else a teammate simply outplayed them.
Speaking of Pumphrey, one area of this research explores the correlation between college usage (touches) and NFL usage/performance (touches and fantasy points). Pumphrey had the second-most college touches of any drafted RB since 2014. Many of these high-volume guys had one good season, or maybe half of a good season. If we examine 800+ touch college RBs during this timeframe, we see name after name of players who were *supposed* to be great, but fell short because of injuries or underperformance (or both). There's a lot more to uncover. I don't want to overstate the results yet.
However, it's a reminder not to get overly caught up in rookie hype. A third-round pick who played a soft NCAA schedule might need a year to acclimate to the NFL, and he might never acclimate enough to become an NFL starter. Recent history suggests Day 1 and Day 2 RBs usually achieve some level of fantasy relevance, often attaining significant value. But go back a few more years, and the landscape is littered with busts.
Admittedly, I'm still wrapping my head around this. For now, the market seems to recognize Hall as the closest to a "sure thing." Nearly everyone else is trying to carve out a backup role or timeshare. White and Spiller remain two of my favorite (among 6-8 other "favorite") later-round picks. And we also might appreciate how their bust potential is higher than most "proven" backup RBs.
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But this is also a pretty unusual offseason for rookie RBs. Hall has the best ADP (RB21). I believe the last time a rookie class had zero RBs in the top 20 was in 2014 (Bishop Sankey). In fact, based on the names I see in previous years' draft rundowns, we might have to go back to 2011 or even 2005 to find another example.
Why does this matter? Because rookie RBs are so tough to value. We've seen Jonathan Taylor on an NFL field. We know he can dominate. The same goes for a dozen or more other RBs. And at least 20 others are fully capable of netting 12+ touches per game if needed. Track records are pathways to future production. It's not that we're chasing points. We're simply identifying and betting on applied talent. CMC might or might not be one of the game's biggest injury risks. But we know if he's healthy, he's one of the best at his position.
Yet with rookies, there's still some mystery about how much their college games can translate in the NFL in Year 1. And that mystery was the subject of research I started yesterday--something I've wanted to tackle for a while. It's still in the very early stages. But a few things jump out, and I want to share them here as we try assess rookies' fantasy values.
First (and again, this is relatively preliminary), sixth- and seventh-rounders are almost universally fantasy irrelevant. Elijah Mitchell was an amazing story last year because it was so hard to predict. To a lesser extent, fellow sixth-rounder Khalil Herbert made surprising waves. And of course we can't forget about Chris Carson in 2017. But on the whole, the numbers are compelling, as preseason buzz surrounding guys like Elijah McGuire (2017), John Kelly (2018), Darwin Thompson (2019), Eno Benjamin (2020), and Larry Rountree (2021) usually don't carry into the season.
Among fourth- and fifth-rounders, there's definitely more reliable production. And occasionally we find a breakout (like 2017's Aaron Jones). But I think last year spoiled us a bit on what these early Day 3 draftees can do. Michael Carter, Rhamondre Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard, and Kenneth Gainwell all played solid-to-sizable roles last year. Whether or not that's contributing to this year's buzz, the fact is, fourth- and fifth-round rookies like Dameon Pierce, Zamir White, Isaiah Spiller, Pierre Strong, and Tyler Allgeier (among others) have become trendy picks. And hey, I'm part of the problem, continually pushing Spiller and White.
But prior to last year, this 4/5 group rarely produced a notable fantasy contributor. Remember the 2017 hype around Joe Williams and Donnell Pumphrey? Or Paul Perkins or Wendell Smallwood (2016)? They had the opportunity, and didn't seize it, or else a teammate simply outplayed them.
Speaking of Pumphrey, one area of this research explores the correlation between college usage (touches) and NFL usage/performance (touches and fantasy points). Pumphrey had the second-most college touches of any drafted RB since 2014. Many of these high-volume guys had one good season, or maybe half of a good season. If we examine 800+ touch college RBs during this timeframe, we see name after name of players who were *supposed* to be great, but fell short because of injuries or underperformance (or both). There's a lot more to uncover. I don't want to overstate the results yet.
However, it's a reminder not to get overly caught up in rookie hype. A third-round pick who played a soft NCAA schedule might need a year to acclimate to the NFL, and he might never acclimate enough to become an NFL starter. Recent history suggests Day 1 and Day 2 RBs usually achieve some level of fantasy relevance, often attaining significant value. But go back a few more years, and the landscape is littered with busts.
Admittedly, I'm still wrapping my head around this. For now, the market seems to recognize Hall as the closest to a "sure thing." Nearly everyone else is trying to carve out a backup role or timeshare. White and Spiller remain two of my favorite (among 6-8 other "favorite") later-round picks. And we also might appreciate how their bust potential is higher than most "proven" backup RBs.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/