Today marks the beginning of a five-week stretch when "anything can happen." Camp started last week for some teams' rookies. This week is the official start, and the news will hit early and often. A lot of news will be the usual "John Doe was catching everything today" stuff that does more for ADPs than actual fantasy values. But some news will force us to adjust several players' rankings.
John Metchie's announcement yesterday--that he has a form of leukemia that likely will sideline him all season--is of course brutal news. The rookie receiver was recovering from an ACL tear. He also missed his freshman season in high school because of a heart issue. As a second-round draft pick, Metchie was expected to be no less than the #3 wideout in a (gradually) ascending offense. To be clear, he hasn't closed the door on playing in 2022. Yet in his own words, he's "likely" out. Given the nature of the disease--despite the fact that it's reportedly less severe than other forms of leukemia--it's still a life-and-death issue. I try to avoid saccharine editorializing, but wow. Team Metchie Forever.
And as always, because this is a fantasy page, as we keep one foot firmly planted in the ideals of "life is more important than football," our other foot can ask (because feet can talk), "What does this mean for Nico Collins and the rest of the Texans?" I liked Metchie's odds of overtaking Collins at some point this season. And on a team with so few playmakers (Brandin Cooks and . . .), the door was wide open for someone to be the #2.
Now the opening might be narrower or wider, depending on your views on Collins. Last year's Texans were one of the most surprisingly "good" four-win teams in NFL history. The team managed to beat Tennessee (the AFC's eventual #1 seed) on the road, as well as the Chargers. Three of their final six losses were by a touchdown or less. Yes, outside of Cooks and some encouraging development from Davis Mills, they were a disaster most weeks. But still, would anyone have been shocked if they'd gone 0-17?
This year they were poised to take at least a small step forward. Mills should continue developing. Marlon Mack and perhaps Dameon Pierce should serve as an upgrade over last season's Rex-Burkhead-led backfield (unless Burkhead reasserts himself as the #1, which would be a bad sign). At only 28 years old, Cooks remains one of the most underappreciated wideouts in the game, possibly because he's been forced to hop from team to team throughout his career.
Meanwhile, Collins has nowhere to go but up, while journeyman Chris Conley is literally the only rational option at the #3 spot. And TE Brevin Jordan might or might not crack 500 yards. The talent is there. But will he see more than 3.5 targets a game--an important marker for whether a tight end is streamable in deep leagues?
After that, the RB/WR/TE talent is pretty bare bones. Most teams have intriguing options at the #4 spot, and some at the #5. I believe Metchie's diagnosis will compel Houston to sign a veteran on the cheap in the next week or two. They don't have a ton of cap space. But if they want to see what they have in Mills before the 2023 draft--to determine if he's a QB they can build around--they need to give him more than what he has. Will Fuller and Julio Jones are prime candidates. Both are nearing the end of the road for very different reasons, and both are only a year removed from looking very good on a per-game basis.
In 2020, Fuller caught 71% of his targets en route to a sterling 53/879/8 receiving line in only 11 games while playing alongside Cooks. Fuller was the WR7 in fantasy points per game. Yes, the WR7. I have no idea how quickly he could return to football shape after missing most of last season. But no one should doubt his ability to shine (even in a boom-bust capacity) if he gets another chance . . . and if he can stay on the field.
As for Julio, the future Hall of Famer deserves to go out on a high note. Last year merits a mulligan. It might surprise some of you that he was, in fact, the WR13 in fantasy points per game the year before. Yes, he was a declining talent. But no, he wasn't "finished," as some analysts believe. A healthy Julio might have enough left in the tank to keep pace with Collins, or even outperform him.
So if you're drafting soon, I wouldn't boost Conley, and I wouldn't bump up Collins very much. Let's wait and see how the dust settles. Because if the Texans do sign someone, that WR will be expected to contribute early and often.
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John Metchie's announcement yesterday--that he has a form of leukemia that likely will sideline him all season--is of course brutal news. The rookie receiver was recovering from an ACL tear. He also missed his freshman season in high school because of a heart issue. As a second-round draft pick, Metchie was expected to be no less than the #3 wideout in a (gradually) ascending offense. To be clear, he hasn't closed the door on playing in 2022. Yet in his own words, he's "likely" out. Given the nature of the disease--despite the fact that it's reportedly less severe than other forms of leukemia--it's still a life-and-death issue. I try to avoid saccharine editorializing, but wow. Team Metchie Forever.
And as always, because this is a fantasy page, as we keep one foot firmly planted in the ideals of "life is more important than football," our other foot can ask (because feet can talk), "What does this mean for Nico Collins and the rest of the Texans?" I liked Metchie's odds of overtaking Collins at some point this season. And on a team with so few playmakers (Brandin Cooks and . . .), the door was wide open for someone to be the #2.
Now the opening might be narrower or wider, depending on your views on Collins. Last year's Texans were one of the most surprisingly "good" four-win teams in NFL history. The team managed to beat Tennessee (the AFC's eventual #1 seed) on the road, as well as the Chargers. Three of their final six losses were by a touchdown or less. Yes, outside of Cooks and some encouraging development from Davis Mills, they were a disaster most weeks. But still, would anyone have been shocked if they'd gone 0-17?
This year they were poised to take at least a small step forward. Mills should continue developing. Marlon Mack and perhaps Dameon Pierce should serve as an upgrade over last season's Rex-Burkhead-led backfield (unless Burkhead reasserts himself as the #1, which would be a bad sign). At only 28 years old, Cooks remains one of the most underappreciated wideouts in the game, possibly because he's been forced to hop from team to team throughout his career.
Meanwhile, Collins has nowhere to go but up, while journeyman Chris Conley is literally the only rational option at the #3 spot. And TE Brevin Jordan might or might not crack 500 yards. The talent is there. But will he see more than 3.5 targets a game--an important marker for whether a tight end is streamable in deep leagues?
After that, the RB/WR/TE talent is pretty bare bones. Most teams have intriguing options at the #4 spot, and some at the #5. I believe Metchie's diagnosis will compel Houston to sign a veteran on the cheap in the next week or two. They don't have a ton of cap space. But if they want to see what they have in Mills before the 2023 draft--to determine if he's a QB they can build around--they need to give him more than what he has. Will Fuller and Julio Jones are prime candidates. Both are nearing the end of the road for very different reasons, and both are only a year removed from looking very good on a per-game basis.
In 2020, Fuller caught 71% of his targets en route to a sterling 53/879/8 receiving line in only 11 games while playing alongside Cooks. Fuller was the WR7 in fantasy points per game. Yes, the WR7. I have no idea how quickly he could return to football shape after missing most of last season. But no one should doubt his ability to shine (even in a boom-bust capacity) if he gets another chance . . . and if he can stay on the field.
As for Julio, the future Hall of Famer deserves to go out on a high note. Last year merits a mulligan. It might surprise some of you that he was, in fact, the WR13 in fantasy points per game the year before. Yes, he was a declining talent. But no, he wasn't "finished," as some analysts believe. A healthy Julio might have enough left in the tank to keep pace with Collins, or even outperform him.
So if you're drafting soon, I wouldn't boost Conley, and I wouldn't bump up Collins very much. Let's wait and see how the dust settles. Because if the Texans do sign someone, that WR will be expected to contribute early and often.
---
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https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/