When I was about six or seven, my dad took my brother and I to county fair in upstate New York. I remember nothing about that day, except this: There was a game that looked like a small Twister board. The person running the game spun a wheel with about eight colors on it, matching the colors on the board. Me and the other participants put chips on one or more of the colors. If you guessed right, you got a payout. Pretty straightforward.
I stood there for three spins. The first one landed on yellow. A middle-aged guy won. The rest of us lost. Before the next spin, we placed our bets. That same middle-aged guy again put his chip on yellow. And again, the spin landed on his color. I remember his "Whoa!!!" exclamation, and people clapped.
He put his next chip on a different color. But I sensed that yellow had better odds. I was caught up in the trend. So I put my chip on yellow . . . and was somehow surprised when I lost. We had both put our faith in stats based on recent outcomes. While I bet on the pattern continuing, he bet on the pattern ending.
While researching yesterday, I came across an interesting stat. For some reason, it reminded me of that bet--maybe the first bet I ever made--at that county fair.
The stat: since 2016, 16 of the 24 preseason fantasy QB12-15s have finished in the top 10.
Most of us encounter stats like this one--if not on a macro level, than on a micro level. Yesterday we dialogued about Cordarrelle Patterson. He broke through last season despite being largely undraftable. Which trend do we trust: the one that preceeded his 2021 breakout, or the one that began with his 2021 breakout? Unlike at the county fair, the odds aren't 50/50. But the challenge is figuring out whether he's more likely or less likely to exceed expectations for a second consecutive year.
Similarly, we now know that two-thirds of all QB12-15s in the past six preseasons exceeded expectations, whether narrowly or dramatically. So what do we do with this information? Should we bet on the pattern continuing in 2022, or is it like betting on yellow hitting a third time in a row--mistaking a low-probability anomaly for a trend?
This is where statistics take a backseat to context. We have to try to understand "why" this has happened. At the county fair, the odds were static. If the spinner were weighted irregularly, increasing the odds of it landing on or near yellow, then that would establish context beyond the normal probabilities. For the top 12-15 preseason QBs, context is wrapped up in countless factors, some of which might provide clues on whether the pattern could have been predicted six years ago--and as a result, quantify (to the extent we can quantify it) the probability of the pattern continuing.
For example, last year this QB12-15 group included Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow. Every top-10 preseason QB had been an elite performer one or more seasons in the previous few years. Few people questioned the possibility that Hurts and Burrow *could* be future fantasy stars. But the market was not ready to put these mostly unproven talents ahead of guys like Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers. In 2019, three top 12-15 QBs cracked the top 10, including the similarly unproven Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson, as well as Jameis Winston.
As we keep moving through, we see a pattern form. Since 2017, all but one of the surprise performers in the preseason QB12-15 group were either 25-or-younger or 33-or-older. Generally, the younger guys hadn't established themselves enough to warrant market excitement--or at least enough to put them in the top 10, while the older guys were (I believe) perceived to be post-prime QBs who could not longer be trusted as must-start fantasy assets. If there were only a few trustworthy fantasy QBs, then there would be room for the QB12-15 group to ascend into, say, the QB7-10 group. But that's not the current state of the NFL. Consider that the current QB12-15 ADP group includes Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Trey Lance, and Kirk Cousins. Carr is the anomaly based on age and upside, and his QB8 ranking on my draft board reflects my strong difference of opinion with the market.
There's no sure-fire answer to the question, "Should we invest in a preseason QB12-15?" But aside from Carr (in my opinion), the appearance of Rodgers, Lance, and Cousins fits the pattern of the previous six summers. The market is not comfortable pushing them up any further, because doing so would knock down conceivably higher-upside options. Can we trust Rodgers over Dak Prescott (QB7), Tom Brady (QB9), or the assuredly undervalued Russell Wilson (QB10)? And yet, if we examine the "why" of recent historical data around QB12-15s, we can understand why Rodgers, Carr, Lance, and Cousins easily could finish in the top 10.
There's simply no room for all of them. And since 2016, the exceptional depth of QB talent--combined with a fantasy market that frequently undervalues unproven commodities and "post-prime" veterans--has created a pattern that we would be wise to take seriously.
I stood there for three spins. The first one landed on yellow. A middle-aged guy won. The rest of us lost. Before the next spin, we placed our bets. That same middle-aged guy again put his chip on yellow. And again, the spin landed on his color. I remember his "Whoa!!!" exclamation, and people clapped.
He put his next chip on a different color. But I sensed that yellow had better odds. I was caught up in the trend. So I put my chip on yellow . . . and was somehow surprised when I lost. We had both put our faith in stats based on recent outcomes. While I bet on the pattern continuing, he bet on the pattern ending.
While researching yesterday, I came across an interesting stat. For some reason, it reminded me of that bet--maybe the first bet I ever made--at that county fair.
The stat: since 2016, 16 of the 24 preseason fantasy QB12-15s have finished in the top 10.
Most of us encounter stats like this one--if not on a macro level, than on a micro level. Yesterday we dialogued about Cordarrelle Patterson. He broke through last season despite being largely undraftable. Which trend do we trust: the one that preceeded his 2021 breakout, or the one that began with his 2021 breakout? Unlike at the county fair, the odds aren't 50/50. But the challenge is figuring out whether he's more likely or less likely to exceed expectations for a second consecutive year.
Similarly, we now know that two-thirds of all QB12-15s in the past six preseasons exceeded expectations, whether narrowly or dramatically. So what do we do with this information? Should we bet on the pattern continuing in 2022, or is it like betting on yellow hitting a third time in a row--mistaking a low-probability anomaly for a trend?
This is where statistics take a backseat to context. We have to try to understand "why" this has happened. At the county fair, the odds were static. If the spinner were weighted irregularly, increasing the odds of it landing on or near yellow, then that would establish context beyond the normal probabilities. For the top 12-15 preseason QBs, context is wrapped up in countless factors, some of which might provide clues on whether the pattern could have been predicted six years ago--and as a result, quantify (to the extent we can quantify it) the probability of the pattern continuing.
For example, last year this QB12-15 group included Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow. Every top-10 preseason QB had been an elite performer one or more seasons in the previous few years. Few people questioned the possibility that Hurts and Burrow *could* be future fantasy stars. But the market was not ready to put these mostly unproven talents ahead of guys like Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers. In 2019, three top 12-15 QBs cracked the top 10, including the similarly unproven Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson, as well as Jameis Winston.
As we keep moving through, we see a pattern form. Since 2017, all but one of the surprise performers in the preseason QB12-15 group were either 25-or-younger or 33-or-older. Generally, the younger guys hadn't established themselves enough to warrant market excitement--or at least enough to put them in the top 10, while the older guys were (I believe) perceived to be post-prime QBs who could not longer be trusted as must-start fantasy assets. If there were only a few trustworthy fantasy QBs, then there would be room for the QB12-15 group to ascend into, say, the QB7-10 group. But that's not the current state of the NFL. Consider that the current QB12-15 ADP group includes Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Trey Lance, and Kirk Cousins. Carr is the anomaly based on age and upside, and his QB8 ranking on my draft board reflects my strong difference of opinion with the market.
There's no sure-fire answer to the question, "Should we invest in a preseason QB12-15?" But aside from Carr (in my opinion), the appearance of Rodgers, Lance, and Cousins fits the pattern of the previous six summers. The market is not comfortable pushing them up any further, because doing so would knock down conceivably higher-upside options. Can we trust Rodgers over Dak Prescott (QB7), Tom Brady (QB9), or the assuredly undervalued Russell Wilson (QB10)? And yet, if we examine the "why" of recent historical data around QB12-15s, we can understand why Rodgers, Carr, Lance, and Cousins easily could finish in the top 10.
There's simply no room for all of them. And since 2016, the exceptional depth of QB talent--combined with a fantasy market that frequently undervalues unproven commodities and "post-prime" veterans--has created a pattern that we would be wise to take seriously.