RBs are interesting to talk about, because their values tend to swing more wildly than other positions, and because there's something uniquely satisfying about landing a bargain running back in the draft. Tyler Boyd probably won't be a top-20 WR, even if Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins misses the entire season--and possibly even if both miss the entire season; the Bengals surely would bring in Julio Jones, Will Fuller, and anyone else who could give them a patchwork receiving corps.
But even "undraftable" RBs have the power to transform a fantasy team if one or two things happen. And in Houston, we see three low-valued RBs, two of whom could surprise. Marlon Mack (RB54) and rookie Dameon Pierce (RB46) are the most likely 1A candidates, with 32-year-old Rex Burkhead (RB73) threatening a spoiler role if Houston somehow gives him another 150 touches.
Now, it brings me no great joy to write about the Texans' backfield. Mack is a major question mark, having touched the ball only 37 times since the end of 2019, back when he was a 23-year-old on the rise. Now he's a 26-year-old with (perhaps) one more chance at a starting job--a cheap signee playing on a one-year contract in one of the league's least talented backfields. Pierce very well could seize the top job in August. That said, Pierce never averaged more than 8.8 carries per game in any of his four seasons at the University of Florida. It's not hard to envision him and Mack splitting the backfield, which probably would render them unstartable more often than not.
Like I alluded to yesterday, research isn't just about stats. It's also about context. What patterns is the fantasy market overlooking? Which ADP anomalies suggest someone is overvalued or undervalued?
For Mack and Pierce, what jumps out at me is that their ADPs (a) pretty accurately reflects concern about drafting an RB who could easily be fantasy bench fodder, and (b) would be fantasy outliers if they come to fruition. That's because since 2002, spanning 640 NFL team seasons (20 seasons, 32 teams), only 7% of the time has a team not had a top-40 fantasy RB. Only 3.6% of the time has a team not had a top-45 fantasy RB.
While split backfields are increasingly common, this pattern of teams producing at least one top-40 or top-45 RB has been fairly consistent since 2002. In fact, only four times in the past four seasons (3.1%) has a team not had a top-45 RB. While it's not automatic, a 96%-97% likelihood of anything is pretty freakin' bankable. In the fantasy world, we can't rationally ignore it.
So while the fantasy market hasn't embraced Mack or Pierce, historical trends strongly suggest one of them will meet or exceed top-45 expectations. Going a step further, there's an 82% chance that the Texans will field a top-30 RB. So we're not just talking about Pierce going from a preseason RB45 to an in-season RB42. If we draft based on context, then we can make a deliberate decision to target both Mack and Pierce at just a little before their ADPs, trusting that one is highly likely to provide more value than the market expects--and possibly a lot more value.
And remember, this context reflects season-long production. We might envision Pierce starting as an RB60-70, and then sliding into a 12-14 touch role beginning in November that yields top-30 numbers. Similarly, Mack could be a top-25 option in th early going, get hurt midseason, and finish as the RB47. But based on where you drafted him, that's still a great investment.
Individually, it's hard to justify drafting Mack or Pierce as, say, a top-35 weekly streamer. But collectively, Houston's backfield is uniquely undervalued. Every other team has at least one RB inside the ADP top 33. If you're looking for low-risk, relatively high-reward picks in the 10th-12th rounds of 12-team drafts, I strongly suggest snagging the Pierce-Mack combo. In a realistic worst-case scenario, you'll get what you paid for. In a realistic best-case scenario, you'll get a lot more.
But even "undraftable" RBs have the power to transform a fantasy team if one or two things happen. And in Houston, we see three low-valued RBs, two of whom could surprise. Marlon Mack (RB54) and rookie Dameon Pierce (RB46) are the most likely 1A candidates, with 32-year-old Rex Burkhead (RB73) threatening a spoiler role if Houston somehow gives him another 150 touches.
Now, it brings me no great joy to write about the Texans' backfield. Mack is a major question mark, having touched the ball only 37 times since the end of 2019, back when he was a 23-year-old on the rise. Now he's a 26-year-old with (perhaps) one more chance at a starting job--a cheap signee playing on a one-year contract in one of the league's least talented backfields. Pierce very well could seize the top job in August. That said, Pierce never averaged more than 8.8 carries per game in any of his four seasons at the University of Florida. It's not hard to envision him and Mack splitting the backfield, which probably would render them unstartable more often than not.
Like I alluded to yesterday, research isn't just about stats. It's also about context. What patterns is the fantasy market overlooking? Which ADP anomalies suggest someone is overvalued or undervalued?
For Mack and Pierce, what jumps out at me is that their ADPs (a) pretty accurately reflects concern about drafting an RB who could easily be fantasy bench fodder, and (b) would be fantasy outliers if they come to fruition. That's because since 2002, spanning 640 NFL team seasons (20 seasons, 32 teams), only 7% of the time has a team not had a top-40 fantasy RB. Only 3.6% of the time has a team not had a top-45 fantasy RB.
While split backfields are increasingly common, this pattern of teams producing at least one top-40 or top-45 RB has been fairly consistent since 2002. In fact, only four times in the past four seasons (3.1%) has a team not had a top-45 RB. While it's not automatic, a 96%-97% likelihood of anything is pretty freakin' bankable. In the fantasy world, we can't rationally ignore it.
So while the fantasy market hasn't embraced Mack or Pierce, historical trends strongly suggest one of them will meet or exceed top-45 expectations. Going a step further, there's an 82% chance that the Texans will field a top-30 RB. So we're not just talking about Pierce going from a preseason RB45 to an in-season RB42. If we draft based on context, then we can make a deliberate decision to target both Mack and Pierce at just a little before their ADPs, trusting that one is highly likely to provide more value than the market expects--and possibly a lot more value.
And remember, this context reflects season-long production. We might envision Pierce starting as an RB60-70, and then sliding into a 12-14 touch role beginning in November that yields top-30 numbers. Similarly, Mack could be a top-25 option in th early going, get hurt midseason, and finish as the RB47. But based on where you drafted him, that's still a great investment.
Individually, it's hard to justify drafting Mack or Pierce as, say, a top-35 weekly streamer. But collectively, Houston's backfield is uniquely undervalued. Every other team has at least one RB inside the ADP top 33. If you're looking for low-risk, relatively high-reward picks in the 10th-12th rounds of 12-team drafts, I strongly suggest snagging the Pierce-Mack combo. In a realistic worst-case scenario, you'll get what you paid for. In a realistic best-case scenario, you'll get a lot more.