There was a lot of fantasy-relevant news yesterday, including some topics we might need to dive deeper into in the coming weeks--like Clyde Edwards-Helaire going on the active/PUP list while Chris Godwin has avoided it (for now). Considering how many fantasy points the Chiefs' backfield could score this year, and with the Bucs' passing attack expected to be proficient (if not prolific) once again, these and other news items matter. However, I haven't yet updated my rankings on these subjects, because it could all change by the weekend. Starting on the PUP isn't like going to a busy drive-thru at lunchtime, or showing up 15 minutes late for a doctor's appointment and waiting to see if they can squeeze you in. And starting *off* the PUP list doesn't mean someone like Godwin is a sure bet to play Week 1.
So here's what we do know and why it matters / is actionable. First, Chris Carson has retired, the second "great" former seventh-round draft pick to exit the NFL this season (cue Ryan Fitzpatrick music, whatever that is). The writing had been on the wall since he suffered a neck injury last year. Despite an overall ADP that somehow remained around 200 all summer, he was in the 390's on my draft board on the assumption that he wouldn't play a snap. Therefore, this news has no impact on how I've valued Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker.
However, deep-leaguers should keep DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer on your radars. If you're doing a 22-round Best Ball draft or an RB-heavy 14-team league, one of these guys is a great bet for 80+ touches. Penny has been one of the most injury-prone RBs of the past four years, and 55% of Walker's college usage came last year. More often than not these past 10 years, first- and second-rounders in Walker's shoes have disappointed in their debut campaigns, and a number of times have missed much or all of their rookie seasons. And yes, sometimes they've thrived regardless. But Seattle's backfield is heavy on talent and light on reliability. Carson's confirmed absence opens the door for a much-needed third option / insurance policy.
Elsewhere, 49ers' head coach Kyle Shanahan confirmed that the Jimmy Garoppolo era in San Francisco is officially over. The Trey Lance era has begun. Last year I wanted to rank him in the top 12 if he'd been named the Week 1 starter. This year I'm not courageous enough to follow through. He's currently #15. There are so many talented guys in the top 10-14, and several breakout candidates below. Maybe my 2023 rankings should account for positional groupings that are more interchangeable. So if we believe the QB11-thru-18 are closer together than the QB18-thru-22, then that should signal the importance of locking in value in the 11-18 range.
OK, I've made a note to myself to explore this more. If any of you have ideas on how to best visually present this in the future, you know I'll dig it. In the meantime, Lance is part of that Carr-Stafford-Rodgers-Tua-etc. contingent that realistically could finish in the top 8. It all comes down to who you're knocking down the list to make room, and that's the tough part.
Finally, the Bucs have signed Julio Jones. Because as always, Tom Brady wants a Super Team, and a Super Team he will have. And before you say, "Julio Jones is washed up," look at what he did in 2020 before getting hurt. He was posting weekly-fantasy-starter numbers as the WR14 in points per game--which by the way was better than Godwin and Mike Evans. So was last year a fluke, or a sign of things to come? If he'd landed in a WR-needy situation, I would be betting on him as a top-55 receiver immediately, with a shot at pushing into the top 45 if locked down a #2 job.
But in Tampa Bay? Great for the franchise and for his career, but not great for fantasy managers. A healthy Godwin should make Julio no more than a weekly #5 or #6 offensive option. This team didn't add Russell Gage just to feed him 2-3 targets per contest. Assuming Julio is the #4 WR in Week 1, Breshad Perriman's faint fantasy hopes will all but vanish, while Gage could take a small hit (dropping him a few spots). I've lowered Evans and Godwin 1-2 spots for now. There will be more shuffling as we head into August, when we get a better sense of Julio's likely weekly role.
And speaking of rankings, unless previous Julys, I'm updating them every day, all day (and often at night). If you've subscribed, you'll see that I've added a date in the top-left confirming when they've been updated that day. You'll also (hopefully) find that the Top 400 Rankings are like nothing you've seen, packed with info that mostly fits on one screen. For example, I recently added "Tabdem Targets" next to starting RBs to help guide drafters on my rank and the ADP for each handcuff. There are also cues for when a player is bargain or fade, a #3 receiver, a #2 tight end, part of an RBBC, etc.
If you have questions about the rankings, ping me anytime. I've designed them the way I like to draft--not theoretically, but in the draft room with the countdown clock ticking and the pressure on.
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Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/
So here's what we do know and why it matters / is actionable. First, Chris Carson has retired, the second "great" former seventh-round draft pick to exit the NFL this season (cue Ryan Fitzpatrick music, whatever that is). The writing had been on the wall since he suffered a neck injury last year. Despite an overall ADP that somehow remained around 200 all summer, he was in the 390's on my draft board on the assumption that he wouldn't play a snap. Therefore, this news has no impact on how I've valued Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker.
However, deep-leaguers should keep DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer on your radars. If you're doing a 22-round Best Ball draft or an RB-heavy 14-team league, one of these guys is a great bet for 80+ touches. Penny has been one of the most injury-prone RBs of the past four years, and 55% of Walker's college usage came last year. More often than not these past 10 years, first- and second-rounders in Walker's shoes have disappointed in their debut campaigns, and a number of times have missed much or all of their rookie seasons. And yes, sometimes they've thrived regardless. But Seattle's backfield is heavy on talent and light on reliability. Carson's confirmed absence opens the door for a much-needed third option / insurance policy.
Elsewhere, 49ers' head coach Kyle Shanahan confirmed that the Jimmy Garoppolo era in San Francisco is officially over. The Trey Lance era has begun. Last year I wanted to rank him in the top 12 if he'd been named the Week 1 starter. This year I'm not courageous enough to follow through. He's currently #15. There are so many talented guys in the top 10-14, and several breakout candidates below. Maybe my 2023 rankings should account for positional groupings that are more interchangeable. So if we believe the QB11-thru-18 are closer together than the QB18-thru-22, then that should signal the importance of locking in value in the 11-18 range.
OK, I've made a note to myself to explore this more. If any of you have ideas on how to best visually present this in the future, you know I'll dig it. In the meantime, Lance is part of that Carr-Stafford-Rodgers-Tua-etc. contingent that realistically could finish in the top 8. It all comes down to who you're knocking down the list to make room, and that's the tough part.
Finally, the Bucs have signed Julio Jones. Because as always, Tom Brady wants a Super Team, and a Super Team he will have. And before you say, "Julio Jones is washed up," look at what he did in 2020 before getting hurt. He was posting weekly-fantasy-starter numbers as the WR14 in points per game--which by the way was better than Godwin and Mike Evans. So was last year a fluke, or a sign of things to come? If he'd landed in a WR-needy situation, I would be betting on him as a top-55 receiver immediately, with a shot at pushing into the top 45 if locked down a #2 job.
But in Tampa Bay? Great for the franchise and for his career, but not great for fantasy managers. A healthy Godwin should make Julio no more than a weekly #5 or #6 offensive option. This team didn't add Russell Gage just to feed him 2-3 targets per contest. Assuming Julio is the #4 WR in Week 1, Breshad Perriman's faint fantasy hopes will all but vanish, while Gage could take a small hit (dropping him a few spots). I've lowered Evans and Godwin 1-2 spots for now. There will be more shuffling as we head into August, when we get a better sense of Julio's likely weekly role.
And speaking of rankings, unless previous Julys, I'm updating them every day, all day (and often at night). If you've subscribed, you'll see that I've added a date in the top-left confirming when they've been updated that day. You'll also (hopefully) find that the Top 400 Rankings are like nothing you've seen, packed with info that mostly fits on one screen. For example, I recently added "Tabdem Targets" next to starting RBs to help guide drafters on my rank and the ADP for each handcuff. There are also cues for when a player is bargain or fade, a #3 receiver, a #2 tight end, part of an RBBC, etc.
If you have questions about the rankings, ping me anytime. I've designed them the way I like to draft--not theoretically, but in the draft room with the countdown clock ticking and the pressure on.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/