Yesterday I checked out some of my research from last summer on RB snap counts. Then I looked at my positional and top-400 rankings and realized they don't really reflect what I'd learned. And that left me wondering how much I should commit to my research, and how much I should bet on exceptions.
The research is pretty solid, pretty compelling. For example, since 2017, 40 of the 47 RBs who eclipsed 600 offensive snaps regressed statistically the next season. Advancing age and higher snap counts adversely impact production. More specifically, we can see that 28+ year-olds at 600+ snaps have averaged a 42% statistical regression since 2012. 800+ snaps regardless of age average a 37% regression.
Last year, Najee Harris and Zeke Elliott were the only RBs with 800+ snaps. Harris has been #2 overall on my draft board since May. You see my problem.
So last night I revisited the research and added to it, parsing more of the data to assess how risky Harris might be compared to other top-10 RBs. One of the challenges is that the NFL has tracked snap counts for only the last 10 years. So there are only a little more than 100 players in the pool, and of those, only 19 RBs have hit 800+ snaps, with 17 occurrences prior to last year. Of those 17, 14 RBs (82%) regressed the following season. Altogether, the 17 averaged 336 fantasy points during their 800+ snap campaigns, and then only 205 the following season.
I love that Harris is the unquestioned bell cow in a solid offense, and with a QB situation that should keep him active in the passing game. I also love that he's young, and that 19% of his high volume last season came through the air. There would be more concerns if a much higher percentage of his lofty touch count came on the ground, where the data shows higher regression probabilities.
But we can't un-see the data. We can't ignore how Harris has to defy expectations to meet expectations. The last 800+ snap RBs were in 2019: CMC, Zeke, and Leonard Fournette. That next summer, CMC had the RB1 ADP, while Zeke stood at #3. Any of us would have been laughed at for bypassing McCaffrey at #1, or for warning opponents Zeke was a "trap pick" in the first round. At it turned out, all three disappointed to varying degrees.
For most of the fantasy universe, Harris seems pretty automatic. So do many of the other 600+ snaps RBs from last year, including Austin Ekeler (732), Devin Singletary (718), and Joe Mixon (697). 13 RBs eclipsed 600 snaps last year. If the trends since 2017 hold, then 11 of them (85%) will regress. If the trends since 2012 hold, 76% will regress--and all 13 will average a 20% regression. Again, it's hard to ignore that.
And a quick word on Mixon. My research doesn't include the playoffs. I should incorporate it, but it's challenging to revise everything I've done to include the postseason. Maybe some day. In the meantime, keep an eye on Mixon this summer. Last summer I was all in on him despite his RB13 ADP, to the consternation of many on Twitter. And this summer I'm the opposite, to the consternation of many on Twitter. He comes with yellow flags based on regular-season usage (touches and snaps), suggesting a modest statistical downturn that could still keep him in the top 10 (his RB ADP is 8).
But including the postseason, he had 419 touches on 887 snaps. We watched him slow down (his stats back this up) as the year wore on. His injury history is notable. If Harris brings some risk, then Mixon brings mammoth risk . . . if we trust the data. If we should commit to probabilities rather than to "what he did last year."
I might talk more about this in August, because fantasy seasons can go in two very different directions based on the outcomes in the first two rounds, when about 13-15 of the top RBs come off the board. If half of them are riskier than the other half, and if the market isn't aware they're riskier, then that's a competitive advantage we should at least recognize, if not act on.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/
The research is pretty solid, pretty compelling. For example, since 2017, 40 of the 47 RBs who eclipsed 600 offensive snaps regressed statistically the next season. Advancing age and higher snap counts adversely impact production. More specifically, we can see that 28+ year-olds at 600+ snaps have averaged a 42% statistical regression since 2012. 800+ snaps regardless of age average a 37% regression.
Last year, Najee Harris and Zeke Elliott were the only RBs with 800+ snaps. Harris has been #2 overall on my draft board since May. You see my problem.
So last night I revisited the research and added to it, parsing more of the data to assess how risky Harris might be compared to other top-10 RBs. One of the challenges is that the NFL has tracked snap counts for only the last 10 years. So there are only a little more than 100 players in the pool, and of those, only 19 RBs have hit 800+ snaps, with 17 occurrences prior to last year. Of those 17, 14 RBs (82%) regressed the following season. Altogether, the 17 averaged 336 fantasy points during their 800+ snap campaigns, and then only 205 the following season.
I love that Harris is the unquestioned bell cow in a solid offense, and with a QB situation that should keep him active in the passing game. I also love that he's young, and that 19% of his high volume last season came through the air. There would be more concerns if a much higher percentage of his lofty touch count came on the ground, where the data shows higher regression probabilities.
But we can't un-see the data. We can't ignore how Harris has to defy expectations to meet expectations. The last 800+ snap RBs were in 2019: CMC, Zeke, and Leonard Fournette. That next summer, CMC had the RB1 ADP, while Zeke stood at #3. Any of us would have been laughed at for bypassing McCaffrey at #1, or for warning opponents Zeke was a "trap pick" in the first round. At it turned out, all three disappointed to varying degrees.
For most of the fantasy universe, Harris seems pretty automatic. So do many of the other 600+ snaps RBs from last year, including Austin Ekeler (732), Devin Singletary (718), and Joe Mixon (697). 13 RBs eclipsed 600 snaps last year. If the trends since 2017 hold, then 11 of them (85%) will regress. If the trends since 2012 hold, 76% will regress--and all 13 will average a 20% regression. Again, it's hard to ignore that.
And a quick word on Mixon. My research doesn't include the playoffs. I should incorporate it, but it's challenging to revise everything I've done to include the postseason. Maybe some day. In the meantime, keep an eye on Mixon this summer. Last summer I was all in on him despite his RB13 ADP, to the consternation of many on Twitter. And this summer I'm the opposite, to the consternation of many on Twitter. He comes with yellow flags based on regular-season usage (touches and snaps), suggesting a modest statistical downturn that could still keep him in the top 10 (his RB ADP is 8).
But including the postseason, he had 419 touches on 887 snaps. We watched him slow down (his stats back this up) as the year wore on. His injury history is notable. If Harris brings some risk, then Mixon brings mammoth risk . . . if we trust the data. If we should commit to probabilities rather than to "what he did last year."
I might talk more about this in August, because fantasy seasons can go in two very different directions based on the outcomes in the first two rounds, when about 13-15 of the top RBs come off the board. If half of them are riskier than the other half, and if the market isn't aware they're riskier, then that's a competitive advantage we should at least recognize, if not act on.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/