How much does franchise reputation factor into our fantasy market values? I was thinking about the Jets last night, and actually think about them fairly often these days. They might be the worst NFL franchise of the past half century. Only three seasons with more than 10 wins since the year after they won their first and only Super Bowl in 1969, and only one season with more than 10 wins this century. They've been bottom-5 in points scored each of the last three years, an have been bottom-10 in nine of the last 10 seasons.
So fantasy managers and the ADP market are accustomed to fading Jets players. Maybe in the backs (or fronts) of our minds, we're comfortable letting opponents take a shot on their backfield, receivers, or QB. These teams simply haven't been built for individual 20+ point performance--the ceilings we look for in most weekly fantasy starters.
We're seeing this scenario play out again this summer, despite the Jets (arguably) having the most potential fantasy-relevant players in a generation or more. In 2015, Ryan Fitzpatrick had Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, while Chris Ivory kept pace at RB. This was the most solid Jets core in decades.
Yet in 2022, this core might be larger, and perhaps just as good. Zach Wilson is as capable of a Year 2 breakout as any other high-profile, second-year quarterback. Breece Hall and Michael Carter form one of the most promising young backfields in the NFL. Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson round out the five rookie/second-year offensive players who are draftable in many/most leagues. And Corey Davis at his best easily could be a top-45 option, while the Jets' revitalized tight end group could yield their first top-14 fantasy TE since 2011--if one of them steps up as the clear starter.
But because this group is so young and unproven--or maybe in no small part because the Jets' reputation is so poor--the market isn't clamoring to draft any of them. Z. Wilson's QB24 ADP puts him one spot ahead of Baker Mayfield, and comfortably behind Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields. Hall (RB21) and Carter (RB37) command more respect, though it would be somewhat shocking if both underwhelmed this year, particularly considering how good they both are in the passing game.
As for the receivers, Moore leads the pack with a WR35 ADP. But G. Wilson is next best at WR50, and Davis is at WR69. Last year Moore was the WR32 in fantasy points per contest, while Davis was the WR36 . . . despite Z. Wilson's rookie struggles (and four missed games). Sure, G. Wilson could cut into their upside, and probably will to an extend. But can't we envision higher upsides on the assumption Z. Wilson will take a second-year leap?
I don't have any good answers in mid-July. And candidly, I'm not all in on the Jets, at least not yet. Maybe franchise bias is keeping me from pushing Hall into the top 20, or Z. Wilson into the top 18, or Moore or G. Wilson into the top 30. Or maybe I'm waiting to see what happens in camp.
Are any of you all-in on any Jets? Very interested in hearing why or why not.
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So fantasy managers and the ADP market are accustomed to fading Jets players. Maybe in the backs (or fronts) of our minds, we're comfortable letting opponents take a shot on their backfield, receivers, or QB. These teams simply haven't been built for individual 20+ point performance--the ceilings we look for in most weekly fantasy starters.
We're seeing this scenario play out again this summer, despite the Jets (arguably) having the most potential fantasy-relevant players in a generation or more. In 2015, Ryan Fitzpatrick had Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, while Chris Ivory kept pace at RB. This was the most solid Jets core in decades.
Yet in 2022, this core might be larger, and perhaps just as good. Zach Wilson is as capable of a Year 2 breakout as any other high-profile, second-year quarterback. Breece Hall and Michael Carter form one of the most promising young backfields in the NFL. Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson round out the five rookie/second-year offensive players who are draftable in many/most leagues. And Corey Davis at his best easily could be a top-45 option, while the Jets' revitalized tight end group could yield their first top-14 fantasy TE since 2011--if one of them steps up as the clear starter.
But because this group is so young and unproven--or maybe in no small part because the Jets' reputation is so poor--the market isn't clamoring to draft any of them. Z. Wilson's QB24 ADP puts him one spot ahead of Baker Mayfield, and comfortably behind Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields. Hall (RB21) and Carter (RB37) command more respect, though it would be somewhat shocking if both underwhelmed this year, particularly considering how good they both are in the passing game.
As for the receivers, Moore leads the pack with a WR35 ADP. But G. Wilson is next best at WR50, and Davis is at WR69. Last year Moore was the WR32 in fantasy points per contest, while Davis was the WR36 . . . despite Z. Wilson's rookie struggles (and four missed games). Sure, G. Wilson could cut into their upside, and probably will to an extend. But can't we envision higher upsides on the assumption Z. Wilson will take a second-year leap?
I don't have any good answers in mid-July. And candidly, I'm not all in on the Jets, at least not yet. Maybe franchise bias is keeping me from pushing Hall into the top 20, or Z. Wilson into the top 18, or Moore or G. Wilson into the top 30. Or maybe I'm waiting to see what happens in camp.
Are any of you all-in on any Jets? Very interested in hearing why or why not.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/