Thanks to the four of you who asked/urged me to create a top-300 rankings for the PFN Fantasy Draft Kit. I've developed these for readers each summer since 2015. In recent years they've incorporated ADP, so we can see which players are bargains vs. fades compared to their market values. And since many managers draft--at least partly--based on market values, it's good to know when to take a player before it's too late (or when to remain patient).
These past two days I've been assembling my first top-400 rankings, from Jonathan Taylor to Ian Thomas. If you're in a deep dynasty league or playing best ball, or if you're simply looking for "underaftable" who might pop, these rankings are now available on the PFN Fantasy Draft Kit website, and I'll continue updating them throughout the summer, along with my three-dimensional positional rankings.
And if you're wondering how any player outside the top 250 is worth our attention, consider that in early September last year, Elijah Mitchell's overall ADP was 288. Eventual #2 fantasy kicker Nick Folk was #311 (and was 31st-ranked at his position). Overall WR36 Van Jefferson was way back at #323, while Super Bowl opponent C.J. Uzomah was #369. D'Onta Foreman (394) was somehow six spots behind Kalen Ballage, while Albert Okwuegbunam (#439) was one behind Johnny Manziel. And so on.
I've always wanted to do top-400 (or maybe someday a top-500) rankings, because the deeper we go, the more unique research we uncover, and that leads to more differentiation within the fantasy universe. If we all shared our top-10 rankings, they'd look mostly the same. Maybe Elizabeth Ruth Porter and I would have eight of the same 10 guys. Maybe Brandon Speaks would have seven overlaps. But in general, we're pulling from a lot of the same info, most of which point to the same "safe" options at the top.
Now suppose Elizabeth, Brandon and I jotted down everyone in our top 150-200. For context, Rondale Moore is #150 on my draft board (compared to a 165 ADP). The last positional player in my top 200 is Carson Wentz (#198, compared to 212 ADP). Would we be shocked if the three of us had only 15 overlapping players in this tier? Probably not. And maybe 15 is unrealistic given how many variables are at play when we dig that far down.
So when we get beyond the top 250, it might seem like overkill, or else we're just throwing darts. But this is my favorite part of the rankings. This is when differentiation is more prevalent and most valuable. For example, 14 of the players ranked in my top 250-300 aren't even in the top 400 in ADP, including Kennedy Brooks, Chuba Hubbard, Jalen Nailor, James Washington, and Cade Otton. They're essentially off the grid for many managers, yet they're one great August (or one upper-depth-chart injury) away from being fantasy relevant, or at least deserving of being on fantasy radars.
My top 300-350 includes Keelan Cole, Tyler Conklin, Ricky Seals-Jones, and other competing for starting jobs. None of these players are in the top-400 in ADP. But if you're in a deep league and Conklin and RSJ are named Week 1 starters, they'll probably pop into the top 250. And as I shared last month, excluding Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow, Cole is my favorite Raiders fantasy WR.
I view all these seemingly ignorable players not as "undraftables," but as "pre-draftables." They're one or two realistic variables away from breaking through. Some have just as good a shot as many players inside the top 250, or even the top 200.
This goes back to the randomness of so many rankings, and why Elizabeth and Brandon and I can agree on a little of things in the first 2-3 rounds. But that's often not where titles are won. Managers who know which pre-draftables have the highest ceilings are best positioned to maximize value in the later rounds. And as we see year after year, those later rounds (not to mention in-season waiver adds) are the true differentiators.
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Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/
These past two days I've been assembling my first top-400 rankings, from Jonathan Taylor to Ian Thomas. If you're in a deep dynasty league or playing best ball, or if you're simply looking for "underaftable" who might pop, these rankings are now available on the PFN Fantasy Draft Kit website, and I'll continue updating them throughout the summer, along with my three-dimensional positional rankings.
And if you're wondering how any player outside the top 250 is worth our attention, consider that in early September last year, Elijah Mitchell's overall ADP was 288. Eventual #2 fantasy kicker Nick Folk was #311 (and was 31st-ranked at his position). Overall WR36 Van Jefferson was way back at #323, while Super Bowl opponent C.J. Uzomah was #369. D'Onta Foreman (394) was somehow six spots behind Kalen Ballage, while Albert Okwuegbunam (#439) was one behind Johnny Manziel. And so on.
I've always wanted to do top-400 (or maybe someday a top-500) rankings, because the deeper we go, the more unique research we uncover, and that leads to more differentiation within the fantasy universe. If we all shared our top-10 rankings, they'd look mostly the same. Maybe Elizabeth Ruth Porter and I would have eight of the same 10 guys. Maybe Brandon Speaks would have seven overlaps. But in general, we're pulling from a lot of the same info, most of which point to the same "safe" options at the top.
Now suppose Elizabeth, Brandon and I jotted down everyone in our top 150-200. For context, Rondale Moore is #150 on my draft board (compared to a 165 ADP). The last positional player in my top 200 is Carson Wentz (#198, compared to 212 ADP). Would we be shocked if the three of us had only 15 overlapping players in this tier? Probably not. And maybe 15 is unrealistic given how many variables are at play when we dig that far down.
So when we get beyond the top 250, it might seem like overkill, or else we're just throwing darts. But this is my favorite part of the rankings. This is when differentiation is more prevalent and most valuable. For example, 14 of the players ranked in my top 250-300 aren't even in the top 400 in ADP, including Kennedy Brooks, Chuba Hubbard, Jalen Nailor, James Washington, and Cade Otton. They're essentially off the grid for many managers, yet they're one great August (or one upper-depth-chart injury) away from being fantasy relevant, or at least deserving of being on fantasy radars.
My top 300-350 includes Keelan Cole, Tyler Conklin, Ricky Seals-Jones, and other competing for starting jobs. None of these players are in the top-400 in ADP. But if you're in a deep league and Conklin and RSJ are named Week 1 starters, they'll probably pop into the top 250. And as I shared last month, excluding Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow, Cole is my favorite Raiders fantasy WR.
I view all these seemingly ignorable players not as "undraftables," but as "pre-draftables." They're one or two realistic variables away from breaking through. Some have just as good a shot as many players inside the top 250, or even the top 200.
This goes back to the randomness of so many rankings, and why Elizabeth and Brandon and I can agree on a little of things in the first 2-3 rounds. But that's often not where titles are won. Managers who know which pre-draftables have the highest ceilings are best positioned to maximize value in the later rounds. And as we see year after year, those later rounds (not to mention in-season waiver adds) are the true differentiators.
---
Sign up for my 2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings ("PFN Pass") or 1:1 Advisory Services ("Touchdown Pass"):
https://pass.profootballnetwork.com/