Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Matthew Stafford be a top-10 QB?
2. Should Cam Akers be viewed as a top-14 RB?
3. Will Allen Robinson be a top-24 WR?
4. Is Van Jefferson draftable?
5. Is Tyler Higbee draftable?
The Rams' offseason and midseason acquisitions last year proved to be the difference between a Super Bowl and (quite possibly) a losing record. While tacking on Von Miller on defense, the team added a trio of offensive playmakers to finally get Sean McVay's squad over the hump. It started by unloading the (apparently) talent-capped Jared Goff, two first-round picks, and a third-rounder for Matthew Stafford. Stafford has outperformed his preseason ADP in four of the last seven seasons, and for context, one of those "misses" was because he was on pace for top-3 QB numbers before getting knocked out midseason.
So it's not surprising that his QB ADP is only 12, despite finishing last year as the QB6. The problem? Who should we rank behind him? Tom Brady? Kyler Murray? Aaron Rodgers? The list goes on: potentially near-elite guys who could just as easily finish in the top 6-8 as they could in the top 14-16. Consider that Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, and Tua Tagolaivoa have ADPs in the 13-16 range. So yeah, I love Stafford at his ADP, but I love a lot of QBs ranked in the top 10-24.
So what do we do? Relax. Stafford paired with Carr could be a formidable streaming duo, for the price of a couple later-round picks. He's great. He's just (probably) not "elite" great. He's part of the pack of great, interchangeable fantasy QBs who could post 26+ points one week and 14 the next week. Not bad for a QB12 ADP price tag.
In the backfield, Sony Michel was another key acquisition for this franchise, coming right after Cam Akers was (seemingly) knocked out for the season. Now Michel is part of Miami's crowded backfield, and Akers is (seemingly) healthy ahead of 2022. There's plenty of anexiety surrounding Akers (QB17 ADP). I think a lot of it has to do with how bad he ran in the playoffs. But hey, he was recovering from a torn Achilles. He didn't look close to 100% out there.
I'm poised to push Akers into the top 14 if Darrell Henderson (RB43; soft-tissue injury) isn't back to 100% by the preseason. Henderson presents the biggest risk to a breakout by Akers, who profiles as a trusted three-down back--with the added benefit of playing in a touchdown-friendly offense. Kyren Williams (unranked) is recovering from a broken foot, while Jake Funk is somehow overvalued at his RB89 ADP. Basically, if Henderson is back in the fold, I'd be wary of reaching for Akers. If the often-injured Henderson remains sidelined for a few more weeks, I'd reach for Akers as a somewhat risky, top-5-upside RB. No, I'm not saying to rank him in the top 5. I'm saying he'd one of about 10-12 RBs with a realistic shot at cracking the top 5.
At wideout, nothing needs to be said about Cooper Kupp, except that I think the Vikings need Justin Jefferson more than the Rams will need Kupp. For me, that's the tiebreaker, and why Kupp (WR1 ADP) is my WR2. He might fall to #3 or #4 by late August. He'll almost assuredly regress as long as Akers is healthy, and assuming Allen Robinson surprises. Yes, I love Robinson this season. His WR ADP is 32. He's currently #15 on my draft board. No hedging. All in. Robinson has caught passes thrown by Chad Henne, Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, Chase Daniel, Nick Foles, Andy Dalton, and Justin Fields. Now he gets to play with Stafford. It's like eating shrimp-flavored chips for years and then trying real shrimp for the first time. Or something like that.
Elsewhere, Van Jefferson is a nice get at his WR65 ADP--if this team doesn't make any other moves. Odell Beckham Jr. remains a free agent. The Rams could decide to pay less for a #3 like Julio Jones or Will Fuller. So we can't yet trust Jefferson until we see what happens these next two months. For now, he's an easy bargain. But baked into his ADP are questions surrounding his role. If the Rams don't sign anyone else, I'd expect his ADP to pop into the top 50. Also, keep an eye on 2021 second-rounder Tutu Atwell. My theory is that the Rams are holding off on spending more money until they see if Atwell is ready for regular work. If he is, then we might envision Atwell as a Best Ball asset who could increasingly compete for tertiary targets as the season progresses.
Finally, Tyler Higbee's TE ADP keeps dropping--from 20 a couple weeks ago to 23 today. I can understand why: his ceiling probably is lower than most top-26 TEs. Maybe top 10-12 at best? That said, I love his floor, and can't envision him falling below the top 20. He's currently #17 on my board--a "safe" streamer for you deep-leaguers who could push for top-12 numbers if his TDs jump from a somewhat middling 5 to an above-average 7-8.