Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Joe Burrow a near-elite QB?
2. Can Joe Mixon replicate his near-elite 2021 production?
3. Are Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as safe as they seem?
4. Can Tyler Boyd be streamable?
5. Will Hayden Hurst be fantasy relevant?
Two days remain in these opening team-by-team rundowns. Today, a team that entered the 2021 season with Super Bowl odds near the league's bottom, found itself 7-6 with a tough remaining schedule, and gutted out three narrow playoff wins before barely falling to the Rams. There's a lot to unpack about this team heading into 2022. For now, let's get a brief snapshot of likely fantasy ranges of outcomes.
First, Joe Burrow. At times, he was simply lights out--everything you'd hope for in a cornerstone fantasy QB. Other times--whether because of a finger injury or simply functioning in a still-relatively-young offense--he looked middling. First eight games: eight multi-TD performances. Next six games: only eight total TDs. Final two games: 971 passing yards and eight TDs against two pretty bad pass defenses (Ravens and Chiefs) in two must-win contests. Buying into Burrow at his QB6 ADP means buying into his continued development as an NFL star, and I'm very willing to invest. His floor should be among fantasy's highest, and his ceiling is nearly unrivaled.
In the backfield, last summer I took a fair amount of heat calling Joe Mixon a top-5 RB, despite his RB14 ADP. When healthy, he's always been "very good." But in an improved offense, he shined, thanks in part to seven TDs from inside the two-yard line. This year I think the market if overreacting in the other direction, with a bullish RB7 ADP despite three yellow flags. First, he slowed dramatically down the stretch last season. Ignore his 13 combined catches in weeks 16 and 17. The fact is, his YPC turned to mush. Second, including the postseason, he racked up 425 touches, including 359 on the ground. You know my views on this. I'm not trusting Mixon at all to replicate his 2021 numbers. Third, we should anticipate more passing-down work from Chris Evans and/or Samaje Perine as the Bengals try to keep Mixon fresher for the stretch run. It all adds up to a concerning ADP; I'd fade him without hesitation.
The receiver corps doesn't need much discussion. We all know the basics. Ja'Marr Chase (WR3 ADP) and Tee Higgins (WR12) are priced fine. Tyler Boyd (WR52) offers strong bargain potential for deeper-leaguers. There's no good reason to over-complicate it. Some weeks, Higgins will outperform Chase. But logic suggests Chase's ceiling is meaningfully higher. Realistically, only injuries can stop these guys (including an injury to Burrow).
More interestingly, let's focus on the tight end slot. C.J. Uzomah is gone. Enter Hayden Hurst. Yes, the same Hayden Hurst who was a top-12 TE two years ago. Why does he have a TE27 ADP? No good reason. Maybe the fantasy universe believes Drew Sample will compete for targets. Hurst is a top-12 TE waiting to happen. He should comfortably outperform Uzomah and is, without question, one of my three favorite head-scratchers in the entire ADP stratosphere.