Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Tom Brady a top-8 QB?
2. Will Leonard Fournette be a top-16 RB?
3. Can Rachaad White be fantasy relevant?
4. Is Russell Gage a weekly streamer?
5. Are any TEs draftable?
In the NFC title game, Tom Brady nearly pulled off another playoff miracle. If you're a Brady fan, it was painfully close. If you're not a Brady fan, then your need for serenity probably supercedes your need to remember. His ceremonious retirement and unceremonious un-retirement encapsulates what we can expect from him in fantasy. Because the most prolific QB of all time wants to be the best ever for centuries to come.
And although this team is missing key parts, keep in mind they nearly defeated the eventual Super Bowl champions despite being down two of their top three WRs. Fournette, Gronk, and Mike Evans were featured on 72% of the team's offensive plays. This was a Super Team, and even without AB, without Gronk, and with Godwin hobbled, it remains a Super Team. His QB9 ADP makes him very safe. Right now, I have him as a slight bargain. As long as he's healthy, it's almost inconceivable that Brady could be worse than the QB12 given his surrounding talent and his own (somehow) sustained talent. Again, Brady didn't return to throw for 180 yards and a score. Yes, winning is everything, but so is dominating. If he thinks he can still play, it means he thinks he can still dominate.
The running game is fascinating, and I'm honestly having trouble with it. Leonard Fournette did everything the Bucs hoped he would last year . . . except getting hurt. Let's remember that heading into the season he and Ronald Jones were in a hot-hand backfield, and their almost identical ADPs throughout the summer reflected it. Now with Jones gone, Fournette has a seemingly more reasonable RB13 ADP. Yet rookie Rachaad White (RB52) has enough pop to push the veteran as soon as Week 1. Fournette has regressed and/or had a serious injury each year after a high-volume workload, going back to college. While last year didn't seem excessive, he was on pace for over 300 touches. The team will need him healthy for the postseason. Barring White flopping in camp, I think the rookie is a near lock to finish in the top 45 and could be a must-start spot starter later in the season. Unless Ke'Shawn Vaughn (RB77) pushes for the handcuff role, I'll be all in on White as the best bargain in this backfield.
At wideout, I've been promoting Mike Evans on this blog as a likely future Hall of Famer since the summer before his third season. He's one of the only receivers I've ever seen who can serve as the #1, #2, #3, or even #4 target in any given week, and still show up the next game with the same drive to get it done. He was the only teammate who went over to AB in Brown's infamous final game to try to talk him out of his impending meltdown. His WR11 ADP looks too conservative to me, assuming Godwin misses the start of the season. In fact, I'd fade Godwin at his WR19 ADP. There are simply too many questions surrounding when exactly he'll be back, and whether the Bucs will ease him back in. You don't want to spend top-20 WR draft capital on a guy--even someone as great as Godwin--who might not be at full strength until October.
Elsewhere, I'm comfortable with Russell Gage at his WR47 ADP. Yes, he could be the #2 to start the year. However, I'm not convinced Gage will be a weekly contributor after Godwin returns. Tampa Bay invested in Gage, so of course they'll use him. But let's not look at 2021's stats as an indicator of 2022 production. Entirely different offense and role. He ascended to a #2 offensive option in Atlanta. I'm eyeing roughly a 75/800/5 line--or top 35-40 production. He's a solid bargain, but not someone who can help you win a title. There are also roughly five other Tampa Bay WRs competing for looks. There's at least some risk that Gage could earn some 3-4 target afternoons alongside Tyler Johnson, Scotty Miller, Breshad Perriman, or another "undraftable" receiver.
Finally, is this the end for Gronk? He could easily un-retire in November, help fantasy managers during the fantasy playoffs, and then help Brady make another Super Bowl run. When he did retire, there was too much Twitter chatter about how it's "Cameron Brate szn," etc. Respectfully, this kind of over-reaction is one reason why I enjoy all this. Brate's TE ADP is 24. Rookie Cade Otton's is in the 50's. Otton has comparable upside at a much cheaper price. If you're in a very deep league and reaching for Brate, you're hoping he rekindles the "magic" of 2017, when he was the TE14 in fantasy points per game. Brate is entering his age-31 season. He'd need to thread the needle to post top-20 numbers. Otton's development and Gronk's potential return should keep Brate outside the top 20. If you can use an IR spot on retired players, draft Gronk late and see if you strike gold. Otherwise, I'd hold off on the assumption no Bucs TE becomes anything more than a TD-dependent option.