Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Ronald Jones or Clyde Edwards-Helaire be a weekly fantasy RB?
2. Is JuJu Smith-Schuster a top-35 WR?
3. Will Skyy Moore be a top-45 WR?
4. Can Mecole Hardman be a top-50 WR?
5. Is Marquez Valdes-Scantling a top-55 WR?
It seems like only yesterday when I referred to Kansas City's NFL team as the "pre-dynasty Chiefs" who would be "the AFC team to beat for what could be many years to come." It was actually on July 30th, 2020, on a few months after they won their first Super Bowl in 50 years. Two years and two AFC West divisional titles later, they're no more a dynasty than the Tom Brady-led Bucs, and if the Rams return to the big game this season and the Chiefs don't, perhaps L.A. would supplant both teams as "the best team of the past five years," or something like that.
The point is, these Chiefs suddenly are at a tipping point. Their all-world TE is aging, to put it mildly. They've just parted ways with their #1 WR. Their backfield might or might not be better than it was last year. And their incredible quarterback looked a little too human last season, finishing as *only* the #5 fantasy QB in points per game. Yes, he dominated the Steelers and Bills in the playoffs. But for the second straight year, his season ended with a dud, inexplicably taking two sacks near the Bengals' goal line in the final minute before settling for a field goal and then losing in overtime.
Mahomes has been the preseason QB1 (based on ADP and consensus expert opinion) for three straight summers. He's the QB2 this summer because, I think, his reputation means more than his realistic range of outcomes. This year the Chiefs have one of the league's toughest schedules based on 2021 win-loss records. His fantasy value hinges largely on whether Travis Kelce can still be elite, and whether a combination of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling proves more capable than Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle, and Demarcus Robinson. Losing Darrel Williams' 47 receptions doesn't help. The key here is that as great as Mahomes is, I can't justify drafting him as a top-2 or even top-3 QB.
The backfield is fascinating, which is code for "frustrating" in fantasy-manager-speak. When the Chiefs signed Ronald Jones, my PFN colleague Jason Katz and I did a podcast on what this meant for fantasy. Katz believed Clyde Edwards-Helaire was still the lead guy. I went the opposite route, believing that Jones offers much more upside and should eventually become the 1A. Jones is a three-down back waiting to pop, and CEH is one more fumble or injury away from perhaps becoming a 6-to-8-touch complementary back. For now, the fantasy universe sides with Katz. CEH's RB25 ADP crushes Jones's RB39. All I can say is that I'm doubling down on the more capable Jones. And as for Jerick McKinnon (RB69), he'll remain a nice Best Ball get in case Jones or CEH goes down.
At wideout, let's try to keep this simple. We don't know what we don't know. This was about as big of a receiver overhaul as we'll ever see from a Super Bowl contender. Can Smith-Schuster (WR37 ADP) round back into 2018 form? Is rookie Skyy Moore (WR56) a soon-to-be starter? Will Valdes-Scantling (WR57) finally put it all together? And can Mecole Hardman (WR62) build off of last season's growth? When it comes to floors, Hardman's and MVS's are probably the lowest. Moore is the most intriguing: a second-round rookie who could take on #1 duties if things break right. And Smith-Schuster is the wild card with great upside, but he's also playing on a one-year contract. Moore is the value play. Smith-Schuster is the safe draft pick. I wouldn't reach at all for Hardman or the boom-bust MVS at this stage.
And Travis Kelce . . . I have strong feelings about which way his ceiling likely will go. It's wrapped up in offseason research about TE regression rates based on age. It's also tied to how Kelce looked last year--at times as dominant as always, and at times like a well-worn 32-year-old trying to keep up. What he did late in the season against the Chargers (4th quarter and overtime) was nothing short of brilliant. But despite his TE1 ADP, and despite what most experts are saying, I strongly believe Kelce won't be a top-3 TE. I break it down in a lot more detail in PFN's Fantasy Draft Kit, which will be out shortly. For now, understand that Kelce is a major fade based on his preseason value.