Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Dak Prescott a top-6 QB?
2. Will Ezekiel Elliott be a top-14 RB?
3. Can Michael Gallup be a top-30 WR when healthy?
4. Can James Washington and/or Jalen Tolbert be weekly streamers?
5. Will Dalton Schultz be a top-6 TE?
First, happy July 4th to those who celebrate. Second, for those who view the Cowboys as "America's Team," it seems only fitting that we'd dive into Dallas today. But honestly, when I set up the order for "32 Teams in 32 Days" in early June, I had no idea the Cowboys would fall on Independence Day. Yet another reminder that there are forces beyond our control or understanding--or that random stuff happens.
Speaking of random, how about Dak Prescott. (Terrible segue, but it's all I've got.) But actually, "random" might work here. As we know, Dak was on a record-breaking fantasy pace in 2020 before getting knocked out for the season. Last year he took a step back, thanks in part to a not entirely healthy receiving corps and a significant regression as a dual-threat QB. He averaged a career-low 3.0 yards per carry on a career-low three carries per game. He averaged his fewest carries per game inside the opposing 10-yard line since 2017. These are all marks of a QB who played it a little safer--perhaps to help avoid another serious injury. To put a ribbon on this statistical gift (bad metaphor), Dak had *zero* broken tackles last year compared to nine in his previous 21 games. Will this conservative approach carry over into 2022?
As for his receivers, he's down Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson. Michael Gallup is not expected to be ready Week 1. If James Washington and Jalen Tolbert are in heavy rotation to start the season, we could realistically see Dak as a non-top-12 QB until Gallup returns--and even then, possibly not even a top-8 option. For now, Dak (QB7 ADP) is #10 on my board. He has to show more than he did last year with (arguably) lesser surrounding assets.
Speaking of "lesser surrounding assets," will we see the best version of Ezekiel Elliott since 2019? He's had back-to-back campaigns with career lows in various crucial categories, including yards per carry, yards per catch, and broken-tackle rate. This spring I recorded a podcast outlining Zeke's very low floor based on historical snap-count data--jarring, actionable intel that reinforces what has been visible already. That's why his RB ADP is 18. I'm bracing for dropping him into the 20s, but am not there yet. Keep in mind, however, that Tony Pollard (RB31 ADP) will be a free agent after this season. Dallas will have a major decision to make before the trade deadline. There's almost no way Pollard's re-signing with the Cowboys if he's not starting in 2023.
Whatever their values are now, whatever their values are in a month, we need to brace for the strong possibility of a dramatic in-season shift--whether because Zeke's body breaks down, or because Dallas trades Pollard before it's too late--or dare I say, trade Zeke, if any team can afford to take on his salary?
At wideout, CeeDee Lamb is poised to dominate. That's why his ADP is WR7. It was WR8 a few days ago, but he's since leapfrogged Tyreek Hill, which makes me sad, because Lamb is ranked several spots ahead of Hill on my draft board (i.e. I want Lamb's value to drop, not go up). Gallup is a complete wild card, hinging on his injury recovery. His WR ADP has dropped from 45 to 49 in the past week. He's been #51 on my board. Once we know more heading into early August, he'll either pop or settle in the 50's, depending on whether he's put on the PUP list and misses the first six games. If reports come back that he should return "no later" than Week 2 or Week 3, then I would definitely reach for Gallup as a top 35-40 WR, and would be even more aggressive if not for his concerning injury history.
Elsewhere, the aforementioned Washington (WR98 ADP) and Tolbert (WR76) should be on all deep-league radars. A former second-rounder, Washington has streaming potential if Gallup sits, but more as a boom-bust option. His career 52% catch rate is among the worst of any 2022 starting WR. Tolbert is the higher-upside play, though with a lower floor until we see him in pads.
Finally, Dalton Schultz: my views on him have changed throughout the offseason, largely because of the departures of Cooper and Wilson. Among the top-7 fantasy TEs last year, only he and George Kittle averaged more than two points per target. Given the current landscape of Dallas's receiving corps, there's no logical reason to believe Schultz's workload will be reduced. He should be the #2 or #3 target for most of the season. For some reason, his TE ADP (7) is worse than T.J. Hockenson's (6). If you're a T.J. fan, I understand. But I'm betting on Schultz to net 40+ more fantasy points than Hock this season.