Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Devin Singletary be a weekly fantasy starter?
2. Can James Cook carve out at least a streaming role?
3. Could Gabriel Davis push for top-28 WR production?
4. Are Jamison Crowder and/or Khalil Shakir draftable?
5. Is Dawson Knox a top-8 TE?
If anyone here predicted Josh Allen's dominance four years ago, please share your brilliance below (screen-shot proof optional). Entering the 2018 draft, some scouts believed he could be great; many compared him to underperformers like Blake Bortles and Jake Locker. But the best at his position (statistically) in back-to-back seasons? That hasn't happened since Daunte Culpepper in 2003 and 2004. After that feat, the 28-year-old Culpepper threw only 20 more TD passes across five seasons. It seems safer to say that won't happen to the 26-year-old Allen. Despite losing two of his top-four WRs, he's a no-brainer QB1, in line with his near-universal ADP. We'd have to talk ourselves into drafting someone like Justin Herbert instead, and really, who wants to go through that mental exercise? Barring something unforeseen, Allen remains "the guy."
The backfield is far more complicated. Last year I continually expressed confusion (bordering on outrage) that Zack Moss too often out-touched the more talented Devin Singletary. Singletary led on nearly every obvious and less obvious RB metric . . . except touchdowns. In the end, talent won (as it usually does), and Singletary helped some of you win your league. On the one hand, his RB29 ADP looks like a buying opportunity. On the other hand, rookie James Cook (RB42) looms. In my cowardice, I have both ranked exactly at their ADPs, at least for now. It all comes down to what we see this month and in the first half of August. If we start hearing "hot-hand" talk in Buffalo, then Cook will become the value play. If we hear things like "Singletary is outplaying Cook," then it would be wise to go all in on Singletary as a top-24 RB with clear top 16-18 upside.
At wideout, not much needs to be said about the brilliant Stefon Diggs, except that I'm slightly fading his WR5 ADP. He was the WR10 last year in points per game, and I'd have a tough time confidently ranking him *right* behind "untouchable" elites that include Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Cooper Kupp. If you're looking for safe weekly production, great. But at this draft spot, I want someone with WR1-2 upside, and I don't see Diggs as a good bet for career highs. Instead, Gabriel Davis (WR33) is the better value play. Same blow-up potential at a cheaper price. Of course, less proven, and quite possibly a lower floor. But his overall 79 ADP makes him a little-to-lose 7th-round pick in 12-team leagues.
Meanwhile, offseason addition Jamison Crowder is somehow still in his 20's and still a very capable receiver--a veteran with good hands who can step up when needed. He's a perfect fit in Buffalo, but clearly not a perfect fit in fantasy. His WR66 ADP is about right. For now, he's lower on my draft board until I see more from rookie Khalil Shakir, as well as seeing if there's still a role for Isaiah McKenzie. Basically, if Crowder is the unquestioned #3 WR, he should be elevated as a top-55 WR. But if he's a #3 in name only and relegated to career-low usage, then clearly he won't be a draftable asset. For what it's worth, Shakir is currently unranked in ADP. I strongly disagree and believe he'll hit the top 100 by the end of this month, with plenty of room to grow in Year 1.
At tight end, I was slow to the uptake on Dawson Knox last year, viewing him as a mostly red-zone-dependent TE. The fact is, his nine TDs made him an incredible fantasy asset, making huge plays from all over the field, including a heads-up 53-yard score in a huge early-season win against the Chiefs. Kudos to those who got on that train early. But his current TE9 ADP concerns me. He was #6 last year in red-zone TE targets, and #3 or #4 in TE targets per game (I haven't yet done all the math, but it's one of those two). Can that continue this season? Because his likely target projections aren't in line with typical top-10 fantasy TEs. I view his upside at around the top 6-7, while his floor (if he scores "only" 4-5 TDs) at around the top 14-15. That makes his ADP a bit too rich. If I'm wrong, call me out in December (or earlier). But for now, I see Knox as no better than a roll-the-dice back-end top-10 TE, and at worst he'll be benchable more often than not.