Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Aaron Rodgers a top-10 QB?
2. Will Aaron Jones keep the lead-RB job over A.J. Dillon?
3. Can Allen Lazard and/or Christian Watson be top-45 WRs?
4. Are any other WRs draftable?
5. Is Robert Tonyan draftable?
During his 14-year NFL career as a starter, Aaron Rodgers has had three consistent #1 receivers: Greg Jennings (2008-2010, though Donald Driver was the 1B at the outset), Jordy Nelson (2011-2014 and 2016, though Randall Cobb briefly took over in 2012 when Jordy was hurt), and Davante Adams (2017-2021). After going through every team's fantasy stats in the last 20 years, I found that Green Bay has the longest streak with at least one overall top-25 fantasy WR per season, going back to 2004.
I want to zoom in briefly on Rodgers' 2015 campaign, when Jordy was out for the season. The patchwork receiving corp was led by Randall Cobb (overall WR24), with James Jones not far behind as the WR29. Adams was still a tertiary option in his second season. Rodgers averaged career lows in completion percentage (thanks in part to a brutal 2.4 drops per game) and yards per reception. It was a receiving corps without a clear identity--a clear leader. Rodgers has thrived with one or even two go-to options. That year, although one could argue Cobb and Jones did just fine statistically, Rodgers struggled (relatively speaking), finishing ninth in QB fantasy points per game--a fraction of a point ahead of Andy Dalton.
Many fantasy experts and managers are down on Rodgers this summer for obvious reasons. On paper, his receiving corps might be the least-talented group he's worked with since entering the league. Rookie Christian Watson is the wild card. Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb might not exceed 600 yards apiece. And Sammy Watkins might not make it through Week 5. Adams has averaged 5.2 first downs and a TD per game in his last two seasons. Who's going to fill that hole? Clearly no one. Optimally, Rodgers will gut out a top-10 fantasy campaign, making good on his QB10 ADP. But he's ranked several spots lower on my draft board. This is the first time since Brett Favre left that I see Rodgers as no better than a streamer.
In the backfield, some of you know how much I pushed A.J. Dillon last year. I got so fired up about it at PFN that I talked one of my colleagues into writing a point/counterpoint article, where I made the case for Dillon being just as good as Jones. The only question was whether the Packers would give him a shot. I even started Dillon in my fantasy title game in Week 17, when his second TD put me over the top for good. This year he's not catching anyone by surprise, as his RB26 ADP suggests. But it isn't good enough, and Jones's RB12 ranking is too aggressive. I've got them 22 and 16, respectively, and it could tighten even more by August. I can't stress enough that if you draft Jones at his current price, you're getting a 1A back in a worse offense than what he played in last year--and a 1A back who could become the 1B by December.
For the receiver corps, I need to see more from the rookie Watson, as well as fellow rookie Romeo Doubs. And where will Amari Rodgers fit in? Six wideouts are battling for three spots, and as suggested above, we might not see any top-35 WR from Green Bay. In fact, the odds are against it, barring multiple injuries. Lazard (WR50) and Watson (WR53) are priced about right. Lazard has the edge for now as the "safer" potential streamer. Watkins (WR70) could have his customary one or two blow-up games. Cobb (WR88) is a worse investment than the unranked Doubs and Amari Rodgers, since Cobb's ceiling at this point is the lowest among the six relevant receivers.
And at tight end, I want to believe in a healthy Robert Tonyan (TE19). His chemistry with Aaron Rodgers and red-zone efficiency (15-of-17 for eight TDs since 2020) are the stuff of fantasy dreams. But if this is indeed a spread-it-around, run-friendly offense, then where does that leave Tonyan? He made waves two years ago as the #2 receiver in catches and touchdowns--on 3.3 catches per game. Unless he once again dominates in the scoring column, he'll probably need 4.5+ catches to crack the fantasy top 20. If you want to roll the dice, there are worse upside plays. But I'm betting on a low floor for a presumably low-volume TE in an offense that should see a meaningful dropoff in scoring.