Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Matt Ryan a must-draft QB?
2. Will Nyheim Hines be a top-35 RB?
3. Is Michael Pittman a weekly fantasy starter?
4. Can any other Colts WR be fantasy relevant?
5. Are any TEs draftable in deep leagues?
Credit Matt Ryan and the Colts for rescuing each other. Still chasing an elusive ring, Ryan leaves the flailing Falcons for a strong postseason contender, while Indy takes a crack at yet another post-prime QB who might--just might--elevate them to Super Bowl contention.
OK, now some tough talk. Last year on a team with a worse defense and a similarly sub-par, top-heavy receiving corps, Matt Ryan finished as the overall QB19. But that doesn't tell the whole story. He averaged fewer fantasy points per game than guys like Teddy Bridgewater, Daniel Jones, and Taylor Heinicke, among others. Now, last year's stats don't matter . . . until they do. None of Atlanta's wins were by more than a touchdown. They gave up 146 more points than they got. Ryan was in catch-up mode most of the season. Yet he didn't even outperform Tyrod Taylor or Geno Smith (again, among others).
We could argue that he looked good at times when Calvin Ridley was still playing. But with the Colts, Ryan probably won't be asked to do as much as he did last year. And with so few capable receiving options, he might not be able to do as much regardless. Ryan's QB20 ADP is about right. Maybe he'll inch into the high teens, or he could push into the low 20's. But I don't see him as a top-half fantasy QB as long as Jonathan Taylor is unofficially running the offense.
Speaking of which, I missed big on Taylor last summer, somehow not understanding his growth trajectory as a bellcow. Still under the illusion that this would be a balanced attack, I failed to appreciate Taylor's potential eliteness. Well, not much else can be said. Although his high volume is a yellow flag, his youthful age (based on my RB-touch research) makes him a low risk for a 30+% regression. He did slow down (relatively speaking) after his 32-carry performance against the Bills in Week 11, netting about about one less yard per carry the rest of the season.
And about that Bills game: this is a key reason why Taylor--although assuredly a universal #1 RB for great reasons--is a great bet for at least a 10% regression. On two successive drives in the mid-to-late third quarter, he touched the ball on nine of the Colts' 11 plays, scoring on both possessions and putting his team up 38-7. And yet, when Indy got the ball back up 23 points, with the clock under 12 minutes remaining, they fed Taylor five more times. We get it. He's incredible. And they ran him like he was an impending free agent, rather than a long-term franchise back. He's the RB1, but I think he'll get 50 fewer touches and at least 50 fewer fantasy points. Nyheim Hines (RB44) should be drafted earlier than his ADP; he's a great bet for top-40 production and a decent bet for top 35.
The wideout corps is fascinating in one key way. Yes, Michael Pittman makes sense around his WR16 ADP. But I'll stake my irrelevant fantasy reputation on rookie Alec Pierce (WR71) or Parris Campbell (WR115) crushing their preseason ranking--and not just because Zach Pascal managed to be last year's WR74. Campbell is an electric talent who (believe me . . . or don't, that's fine) could be a top-35 WR if he stays healthy. He's missed 34 of 49 NFL games, but is the team's fastest receiver and was virtually a can't-miss prospect out of Ohio State. Unless he's the next Kevin White, Campbell is the higher-upside play, while Pierce is the "safe" top-50 option if Campbell can't stay healthy.
At tight end, this franchise has opted for a piecemeal solution since Eric Ebron's statistically impressive 2018. Last year, Ebron was the de facto early-season starter ahead of rookie Pat Freiermuth in Pittsburgh. The Steelers drafted Freiermuth last offseason one pick after the Colts drafted DL Dayo Odeyingbo, who missed seven games recovering from an Achilles tear and was not expected to really contribute until 2022. In other words, in another universe, Indy drafted Freiermuth instead, giving them a sizable TE upgrade in a season when they were one victory away from reaching the playoffs. Unfortunately for them (and fantasy managers), they're still using a piecemeal approach. They might have reached for third-round pick Jelani Woods (TE27 ADP), who at the moment isn't a lock to secure more than 35 catches alongside Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson. It's a TE corps to avoid in fantasy.