Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Trevor Lawrence make a big Year 2 leap?
2. Will Travis Etienne be a weekly fantasy starter?
3. Can James Robinson remain a top-32 RB?
4. Are Christian Kirk and Marvin Jones top-50 WRs?
5. Is Evan Engram draftable?
Trevor Lawrence couldn't have been much worse last season. He also had a lot stacked against him: an instant-impact rookie RB getting knocked out for the year during the preseason; his top wideout getting knocked out for the year in Week 4; and arguably the most harmful head coach of the Super Bowl era. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft was supposed to turn this franchise around Day 1. Of course, that proved to be almost impossible. For most of the year, beyond Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault, his top receivers were Jamal Agnew, Laquon Treadwell, Jamal Agnew, Tavon Austin, Dan Arnold, and James O'Shaughnessy. Lawrence led the league in interceptions, and in one notable eight-game stretch he mustered only one score.
So why does he have a QB19 ADP heading into 2022? Actually, I think the question should be, "Why isn't it better than 19?" Because Lawrence isn't your normal young quarterback. It's safe to say that he could be a top-5 fantasy QB by 2025, if not sooner. The Jags retooled the offense this offseason, and their backfield is . . . well, it's gradually getting healthy. On paper, this is not a bad team. Many of last year's offensive contributors might not see more than five targets this year. As long as his starting receivers stay pretty healthy, and assuming Lawrence continues serving as a dual-threat, this franchise QB is a screaming buy at his market price. I'd have no problem pairing him with another top 16-20 QB near the end of a draft, with the expectation that at least one will shine more often than not. Lawrence is that good. It just hasn't happened yet.
In the backfield, so many questions. Can James Robinson recover from his Achilles tear in time to be no worse than a streamer in September? Can Travis Etienne be the versatile playmaker he might have been last year if not for his preseason foot injury? As good as Robinson has been, we have to believe he's playing from behind at the moment, which is why his ADP is RB37. Etienne appears poised to start camp as the de facto No. 1, which helps explain his RB23 ADP. If Robinson returns to 100% early in the season, this surely could become a split backfield, with Etienne earning a majority of the passing-down work. And yet, Robinson has 80 catches in 28 NFL games; he's no slouch in the passing game.
This is similar to what's happening in Baltimore, where the two lead backs are returning from season-ending injuries. Whoever's healthiest earliest has the edge, and yet both are higher-than-normal re-injury risks. Etienne has a higher floor, because the team is more likely to relegate Robinson to a subordinate role than Etienne. But Robinson has the experience. I'd like to say, "Of course reach for Etienne." But RB23 is a pretty steep price to pay unless we know Robinson will miss at least a month. I don't want a 12-touch RB in a crowded offense with my RB23 pick. I want someone with strong 20+ touch potential. My concern is that Etienne probably won't get that chance--at least not this year.
At receiver, I agree with the general sentiment that the Jags paid too much for Christian Kirk. But if the ends justify the means, then they now have a solid WR corps to build on in 2023 and/or 2024. Kirk's WR44 ADP assumes Lawrence continues to struggle, or that Kirk doesn't earn the No. 1 job. I don't see Zay Jones as a major threat; Jones went on a nice run last year when Vegas desperately needed another receiver to step up. But as the No. 5 or No. 6 overall offensive option (including when Lawrence runs with the ball), Jones probably won't have fantasy relevance unless Kirk and/or Marvin Jones goes down. And speaking of Marvin, his WR70 ADP seems farfetched. While he probably won't come within five spots of last season's WR34 finish, top-50 production seems realistic. Again, this all comes down to Lawrence's arm. If we believe he can feed 2-3 receivers a week (and I believe he can), then Kirk and Jones should be bargains.
Elsewhere, Shenault deserves better, but he probably won't get it in Jacksonville. Agnew and Treadwell are depth pieces. Lawrence have 6-7 guys to choose from before focusing on these tertiary options. And yes, the 23-year-old Shenault--coming off a 100-target season--is considered "tertiary." There's buzz that the team might be trying to trade him. For now, there's simply no room for him in the top 80.
At TE, the legend of Evan Engram began his rookie year when Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard missed a lot of games, forcing Eli Manning to heavily target Engram, Roger Lewis, Tavarres King, and Rhett Ellison. Dropped passes and erratic play--especially when his WR teammates are healthy--have brought Engram to the brink of fantasy irrelevance. Yes, in a perfect world he could crack the top 14. More likely, he'll either get hurt or settle for 3-4 targets a game. He's only on a one-year deal. Dan Arnold looms. Engram's TE24 ADP makes sense. His only realistic path to top-16 production requires him to be a top-4 receiving target in an above-average offense. The latter scenario seems more possible than the former.