Five Biggest Questions
1. Who will be the primary QB, and will it matter?
2. Can Cordarrelle Patterson come close to replicating his 2021 breakout?
3. Can any other RB be streamable?
4. Will Drake London be a top-35 WR?
5. Is Kyle Pitts a top-3 TE?
Some people swear by Marcus Mariota. I'm not one of them. Yes, he's a "dual-threat" QB who entered the NFL in 2015 as a franchise-elevating quarterback. By his third season, he looked like a backup. In his fifth season in 2019, the recently acquired Ryan Tannehill replaced him. Mariota hasn't started a game since.
If you're investing in Mariota, you're hoping he has a career year helming an offense that might not be better than last year's Falcons, and which arguably isn't (much?) better than the 2016 Titans. That's a big gamble, even at his ultra-cheap QB30 ADP. Yes, when starting, Mariota will be better than one of the three worst fantasy QBs. But at some point, rookie Desmond Ridder will take over. This likely isn't a playoff team, and the organization will want to see what they have in Ridder before next offseason. Mariota was given less than $7 million guaranteed on a two-year contract that the Falcons can easily exit after Year 1. I'd be shocked if Mariota's still starting by Thanksgiving.
Meanwhile, Cordarrelle Patterson was one of the truly great NFL stories of 2021. A combination of talent, an immobile QB, and franchise desperation forced him into a primary role. No team targeted their backfield more, and Patterson earned 58% of his fantasy points through the air. It worked in 2021. Can it work in 2022? According to the market, not at all. Patterson's RB30 ADP suggests he'll be a streamer at best. That seems about right. The 31-year-old is coming off a 205-touch campaign. His previous career-high was 85 (the year before). There are many reasons why the Falcons will give Damien Williams (RB71) and--more likely--rookie Tyler Allgeier (RB52) plenty of run. Williams could swoop in as a steal if the hit-or-miss Allgeier falls flat. Much of it comes down to what happens in camp. One of these two are near-locks to outperform market expectations.
Two years ago, the Falcons had one of the best WR tandems in the league. Less than a year later, they were starting from scratch. It's probably no coindence that rookie Drake London's WR41 ADP is almost identical to Russell Gage's 2021 overall fantasy WR ranking (38). A likely downgrade at QB probably will be offset by Patterson's reduced impact, leaving London as a solid top-40 projection with plenty of pop. I like Atlanta's non-division schedule against plenty of high-scoring teams, including the Rams, Bengals, and Chargers, as well as possible big scorers that include the Ravens and Cardinals. Playing from behind early and often can be a streaming WR's best friend. Assuming London leads all Atlanta WRs in targets, he should finish in the top 35. I'm definitely buying him at his current price.
Elsewhere, Bryan Edwards' brief career in Las Vegas didn't last. A fresh start on the WR-needy Falcons can't hurt. Olamide Zaccheaus poses the biggest challenge to Edwards' fantasy relevance, and I simply don't see Zaccheaus as anything more than the No. 5 or No. 6 overall offensive option. Edwards' WR85 ADP is a bit insane. No, it's very insane. That's worse than how Zaccheaus fared last year. I'm banking on top-60 production from Edwards, which doesn't sound great. But keep in mind, this assumes the team's quarterbacking is severely sub-par. There's strong top-50 / occasional-streaming potential even if Mariota/Ridder are bottom-10 QBs, as long as Edwards is locked in as the No. 2 WR.
Finally, what can be said about Kyle Pitts? When PFN's fantasy department did our dynasty rankings this offseason, he was my No. 1 TE. There's no clear path to anything less than top-5 production for years to come. And we shouldn't be shocked if he leads all fantasy TEs as soon as this season. There's so much to love about his game. And fantasy-wise, keep in mind that he scored only 3% of the Falcons' touchdowns last year. He was only 9th in TE targets. This is where "last year's stats" can lead to inaccurate fantasy projections. We have to ask ourselves how much better they easily could have been, as well as how much better they're likely to be based on rising-usage expectations. I believe he'll outperform the aging Travis Kelce this season. Kelce has a TE1 ADP. So that pretty much sums up my views on Pitts.