Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Russell Wilson return to 2020 form?
2. Is Javonte Williams a top-12 RB?
3. Can Melvin Gordon be a weekly streamer?
4. Will Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy be weekly fantasy starters?
5. Can Albert Okwuegbunam be a top-14 TE?
Rarely do we see an elite or even near-elite QB completing the puzzle of a potential offensive juggernaut. The fact is, last year's 7-10 Broncos missed the playoffs--arguably--because they had one of the league's worst QB tandems. Their running game and receiving game were built to shine. But Teddy Bridgewater's (and Drew Lock's) limitations held this team back. All of their wins were by a touchdown or more. Four of their losses were by five points or less, including in three of the season's final four contests.
Their trade for Russell Wilson could mean everything for this offense. A strong case could be made that Wilson can thrive in ways he no longer could in Seattle. His QB11 ADP is based partly on "what have you done lately?" and partly on "there are so many great fantasy QBs to choose from." It doesn't help that he'll turn 34 in November, and that he might not be the elite-upside dual threat he once was. Last year he averaged only 3.0 rushing attempts per game. His previous career low was 4.2 (2018), and his career average entering 2021 was 5.6. In other words, if last year is a sign of things to come, then Wilson's ceiling will be capped as much as ever. However, he has the personnel to dominate. Much like the similarly priced Tom Brady last summer, Wilson could easily return to 4,000-yard and 40-TD levels (he got there in 2020, for example). I'd put his realistic ceiling in the top 4-6 and his realistic floor in the top 10-12. That makes him a bargain.
The backfield could not be more fascinating. Well, it could, but it's all some people want to talk about, and for good reason. Javonte Williams is the future. Melvin Gordon is almost the past. Last year they split carries down the middle. The Javonte True Believers insist he's the second coming of Clyde Edwards-Helaire (back when CEH was a supposedly can't-miss RB in a loaded offense). As you can tell, I'm not one of those True Believers, or at least not yet. Yes, Williams led all RBs in 2021 in broken tackles (31) on rushing attempts and broken-tackle rate (one per 6.5 carries). He also had 246 touches last year. Will this team give him 300-320? Because that might be needed to reach the top 10. Also, Williams topped out at 14 rushing attempts per game in three college seasons. Is he ready to become an 18+ touch bell cow? Perhaps. Or perhaps Denver is content to keep running Gordon as a strong 1B as they look to keep Williams as fresh as possible for the all-important playoffs.
Gordon seems like a strong buy at his RB35 ADP. While I don't expect him to be a weekly starter, or even a weekly streamer, he should have enough top-30 weeks--and maybe some top-20 weeks--to make him a must-buy at his current market price. Worst-case scenario, he'll be one of the best handcuffs in fantasy. Best-case, he'll be a top-24 RB.
The receiving corps is fairly straightforward. We know inherently how good Courtland Sutton (WR28 ADP) and Jerry Jeudy (WR30) can be. Tim Patrick is ridiculous undervalued at his WR66 ADP. If Wilson returns to 2020 form, these three easily could combine for 3,000+ yards and 25+ TDs. Last year they combined for nearly 2,100 yards and seven TDs while collectively missing eight games. It's not hard to envision all three finishing in the top 35, with Sutton and Jeudy pushing into the top 18. I'm a fan of stacking Wilson with Sutton and Jeudy by using middle-round draft picks, devoting the early rounds to great RBs and another great receiver. Essentially, this is a stack that will rise or fall together, and based on market value, they can't realistically go much lower.
Finally, with Noah Fant in Seattle, the often-injured Albert Okwuegbunam could comfortably outperform his TE22 ADP if he stays healthy. That might be a big "if," however. Rookie Greg Dulcich will be available after just about every draft, and Okwuegbunam might be a trendy late-round snag in deeper leagues. If you miss out one of the elite TEs, then yes, it makes sense to roll the dice on Okwuegbunam and hope he strikes gold. Last year, Pat Freiermuth entered Week 1 with a TE25 ADP. Two years earlier, four TEs in the top 20-30 ADP finished in the top 12. So yes, Okwuegbunam fits in that category of a little-to-lose dart throw in a plus offense with the talent to become a top-12 option.